Scenario Planning Basics Part 1

This webinar slide deck covers the basics of scenario planning for rural and urban planners and includes questions for an interview with staff members at the Regional Plan Association (RPA) of the New York City metro area. It closes with a brief introduction to the Consortium for Scenario Planning, the provider of the webinar. The companion video recording is available at https://vimeo.com/273709389. Find out more about the Consortium for Scenario Planning at www.scenarioplanning.io.

Transcript

1. SUMMER SCENARIOS An Educa1onal Webinar Series By the Consor1um for Scenario Planning www.scenarioplanning.io
2. SCENARIO PLANNING BASICS PART 1 PLANNING FOR RESILIENCY AND ADAPTABILITY TO UNCERTAIN FUTURES Webinar 1 of 5: www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/
3. Learning Objec1ves 1.  What scenario planning is and why it is important 2.  How to apply a step-by-step framework for scenario planning to your work 3.  How prac>>oners have approached specific steps through past projects
4. Agenda 1.  Speaker introduc>ons 2.  Interview with Regional Plan Associa>on (RPA) & Basics of Scenario Planning 3.  Audience ques>ons 4.  Closing
5. Speakers & Facilitator Speakers: •  Ellis Calvin - Senior Planner, Energy & Environment, RPA •  Christopher Jones - Senior Vice President and Chief Planner, RPA •  Robert Lane - Senior Fellow for Urban Design, RPA Facilitator: •  Janae Futrell, AICP, LEED AP - Decision Support Fellow, Consor>um for Scenario Planning, Lincoln Ins>tute of Land Policy, jfutrell@lincolninst.edu
6. What is scenario planning? Scenario planning is a structured process to support decision-making that helps urban and rural planners navigate the uncertainty of the future in the short and long term.
7. Why is scenario planning important? Rural and urban planners commonly face 3 challenges: Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes Public engagement without communica>on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others 1 2 3
8. #1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes
9. #1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes
10. #1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes
11. Transparent underlying decision making structure with clear variables Know when an impac[ul change occurred, enables periodic “refreshing” Step-by-step framework will help clarify where transparency is lacking Requirement: In order to: Good news:
12. #2 - Public engagement without communica1on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs
13. #2 - Public engagement without communica1on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs
14. Professionals understand concepts well first Incorporated into the “stakeholder and public engagement” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Boil down concepts to an accessible level for the public
15. #3 - Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others
16. Organiza>on has worked with staff, stakeholders, and public to clarify quality of life outcomes Incorporated into the “direc>on se`ng” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Enable transparency about the outcomes
17. Scenario planning involves rethinking the planning process to increase flexibility, improve public engagement, and/or clarify the outcomes of focus. Not all 3 need to be done at once, but can build upon each other. Scenario planning is not parallel to the planning process; it is the process.
18. Why did RPA decide to have a scenario planning component within its planning process? Tell us a bit about the broader regional planning process that it supported.
19. 23 million residents $1.8 trillion economy 13,000 square miles 782 municipalities NY-NJ-CT Metropolitan region
21. Why Scenarios? §  Understand implications of different settlement patterns §  Use this understanding to shape policy and investment proposals §  Evaluate proposals in context of uncertainty
22. Evaluating scenarios and proposals Impact by geography, income, race and ethnicity on: §  Household incomes §  Housing and transportation costs §  Access to good schools, jobs and other resources §  Public health §  Livability §  Resilience to climate change §  Natural resource protection Feasibility §  Cost §  Complexity §  Public support Flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances
23. Step-by-Step Framework
24. Founda1on Building
25. What were the primary and secondary issues addressed through the scenario planning process?
26. •  Increase incomes and reduce poverty •  Expand housing choices and lower costs •  Revitalize downtowns and neighborhoods •  Increase revenue for public needs •  Support a growing dependent population Why grow?
27. How much growth should we plan for? 2015 Jobs: 11.6 M 2015 Population: 22.9 M
28. What forces and drivers had the most impact on the issues RPA sought to address? What assump1ons did RPA consider, and how did the levels of certainty vary?
29. External forces §  Climate change §  Technology §  Global migra>on §  Demographic & cultural change §  Na>onal economic growth §  Interna>onal compe>>on Internal decisions §  Infrastructure investments §  Regulatory structure §  Land use policies §  Fiscal policies §  Health and educa>on §  Governance Determinants of growth
30. High certainty §  Many more elderly §  Smaller working age popula>on §  Racial and ethnic diversity §  Less land to develop §  Aging infrastructure §  Rising sea levels Less certainty §  Slightly lower na>onal growth §  New jobs dispropor>onately high skill §  Substan>al increase in working at home & off peak travel §  Preference for walkable neighborhoods will increase §  Other regions will invest strongly in housing and infrastructure §  More frequent and intense storms Assumptions
31. Direc1on Se^ng
32. How did RPA formulate the scenarios? And what scenarios, or plausible future states, ended up being considered?
33. Creating the Scenarios: Place Types Defining Types of Places §  Residential density §  Employment density §  Intersection density §  Degree of mixed use §  Impervious surface
34. Allocating Growth: Factors Factors for Growth §  Distance to a train station §  Current number of jobs within a 60 minute drive §  Percent vacant developable land §  Percent of population in the 2050 flood zone §  “Ecological Sensitivity”: regional ecological flows and habitat resilience §  Capacity: residential/employment density the top quartile of its place type
35. Reinforce the Center Resurgent Downtowns Reinvent the Suburbs Grow With Nature Four ways to 1.9 million jobs and 3.7 million people
36. What types of outcomes were priori>zed?
37. All scenarios are transit-oriented by design
38. Social equity
39. Transportation
40. Response & Ac1on Planning
41. Stakeholder & Public Engagement
42. How was public engagement incorporated into the scenario planning process? Were there par>cular “tradeoffs” that resonated with the public?
43. Partnerships Fourth Plan Process Community Voices Heard (Hudson Valley) Partnership for Strong Communities (Connecticut) Housing and Community Development Network (New Jersey) Make the Road Connecticut (CT and LI) New York Communities for Change (Long Island) Right to the City Alliance (New York City & National) Alliance for a Greater New York (New York City)
45. Audience Ques1ons
46. What is the Consor1um? It provides training and peer exchange to support professionals as they get started with scenario planning and take it to more advanced levels. Who can benefit? Urban, regional, and rural planners and managers, as well as others, are welcome. Official partners include: How can I learn more? Become a par>cipant or join the mailing list by visi>ng the website at scenarioplanning.io or contac>ng Janae at jfutrell@lincolninst.edu.
47. Upcoming Summer Scenarios www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/ Scenario Planning Basics Part 2: Planning for resiliency and adaptability to uncertain futures Transporta>on Planning: How scenario planning can support performance-based planning Public Outreach: How scenario planning can be used as an engagement technique People and Economies: How quan>ta>ve regional scenarios can set the table for policy and planning June 28 July 18 August 7 August 29
48. Upcoming Consor1um Conference www.scenarioplanning.io/events/ September 12-14 in Columbus, Ohio with host agency Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Save the Date Call for Proposals Call for session proposals through June 22
49. Thank you to the presenters and ajendees! Contact jfutrell@lincolninst.edu with ques>ons.