Overshoot: An analysis of progress, risks and opportunities for decarbonising surface transport

A short summary of 'Overshoot: An analysis of progress, risks and opportunities for decarbonising surface transport' a report by Greg Marsden.

Read the full report: https://doi.org/10.48785/100/474
Learn more about INFUZE: https://in-fuze.org.uk/

Transcript

1. Exploring how transport can be better for our lives and communities Greg Marsden, University of Leeds E-mail: tragrm@leeds.ac.uk
2. Inspiring Futures for Zero Carbon Mobility Overshoot: An analysis of progress, risks and opportunities for decarbonising surface transport Short Summary April 2026
3. Carbon Ambition for Surface Transport is Weakening The Carbon Budget Growth Delivery Plan (CBGDP) will overshoot on carbon compared to the Climate Change Committee’s 6th and 7th Carbon Budget(CB) estimates. ~15% overshoot vs 7th CB
4. Road Traffic Growth Forecast is nearly double the historic growth rate. New car sales to rise by more than 25% with 10 million more cars by 2050. The Planning Assumptions are not credible 1.2% 0.7% 2 m 2.6 m 2000-2025 CBGDP Plan 2025 CBGDP Plan
5. A two-year delay in the ZEV mandate doubles the carbon overshoot. This would make the overshoot equivalent to the entire carbon budget from 2031 to 2050. Lobbying on this must be resisted. The ZEV Mandate cannot be watered down
6. The level of behaviour change ambition in the plan is almost zero. Even a Covid-scale policy response enacted immediately would not solve the overshoot. Behaviour change remains a key carbon mitigation tool as well as acting to reduce congestion and improve health. Behaviour change is missing
7. Manufacturing emissions will rise. Actions to reduce this include: • Plan for a smaller fleet • Reduce carbon of production processes • Focus on right size for battery electric mobility – not just bigger cars Car manufacturing emissions need to be part of transport policy
8. A ‘kitchen sink’ scenario could just track to the 7th CB but this is not policy across the UK. The risks of further overshoot are high. A new model for healthy and flourishing communities is needed which is respects our carbon goals. Overshoot now seems inevitable – how much remains depends on action
9. 1. Introduce a high bar on carbon impacts for further infrastructure investments (All Scheme Promoters) 2. Revise core planning assumptions (National and Local Governments) 3. Set out honest but ambitious pathways for reducing traffic growth (Local Governments) 4. Use a very simple headline indicator set to scrutinise progress (Climate Change Committee) 5. Establish a task force to explore new mobility solutions and pathways (Department for Transport and Devolved Administrations) Recommendations
10. Discover more: in-fuze.org.uk Contact us: infuze@leeds.ac.uk Read more: Overshoot: An analysis of progress, risks and opportunities for decarbonising surface transport