Redefining projects for an age of complexity

Slides for my talk at PMCon 2016

Transcript

1. Redefining projects for an age of complexity Jovan Vidic June 11, 2016
3. 3 Why was this project doomed to failure?
4. 4 History of (modern) project management
7. 2 + 2 = ?
8. 796 x 457 = ?
14. h"p://distrac-fy.com/old-school/2015/02/22/mind-blowing-op-cal-illusions-1197825445
18. h"ps://soundcloud.com/whyy-the-pulse
19. h"p://distrac-fy.com/old-school/2015/02/22/mind-blowing-op-cal-illusions-1197825445
22. Anchoring Bias Anchoring is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions. 22 Cognitive Biases
23. Bandwagon Effect The bandwagon effect is a psychological phenomenon whereby people do something primarily because other people are doing it, regardless of their own beliefs, which they may ignore or override. 23 Cognitive Biases
24. Outcome bias The outcome bias is an error made in evalua-ng the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known. 24 Cognitive Biases
25. Recency bias Recency bias is the name for the heavy influence that recent experience can have on our decision making. 25 Cognitive Biases
26. h"p://www.themesltd.com/covers/homer_simpson_no_brain_no_pain.png
27. 27 Mythology of Agile software development
29. h"ps://dev.to/rly
30. h"ps://dev.to/rly
31. h"p://gaspull.geeksaresexytech.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/soNware-eng.jpg
32. 32 Modern history of complexity h"ps://stepsandleaps.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/complexity-map-overview.jpg
33. What is Complexity? Complexity is more a way of thinking about the world than a new way of working with mathema-cal models. 33 Understanding Complexity
34. What is Complex System? •  It involves large numbers of interac-ng elements •  The interac-ons are nonlinear, and minor changes can produce dispropor-onately major consequences. •  The system is dynamic, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and solu-ons can’t be imposed; 34 Understanding Complexity
35. What is Cynefin? Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies the mul-ple factors in our environment and our experience that influence us in ways we can never understand. 35 Understanding Complexity - Cynefin
36. 36 Cynefin – Simple domain
37. •  Characteris@cs: •  Repea-ng pa"erns •  Clear cause and effect •  Fact-based management •  The Leader’s Job: •  Sense, Categorize, Respond •  Communicate in clear and direct ways •  Interac-ve communica-on may not be necessary •  Danger! •  Complacency and comfort •  Desire to make complex problems simple •  Overreliance on best prac-ce Cynefin – Simple domain
38. 38 Cynefin – Complicated domain
39. •  Characteris@cs: •  Expert diagnosis required •  Cause and effect not immediately apparent to everyone •  Fact based but—more than one right answer •  The Leader’s Job: •  Sense, Analyze, Respond •  Create panels of experts •  Listen to conflic-ng advice •  Danger! •  Experts can become overconfident and blind to other solu-ons •  Viewpoints of non-experts are excluded •  Analysis Paralysis Cynefin – Complicated domain
40. 40 Cynefin – Complex domain
41. •  Characteris@cs: •  Flux and unpredictability •  Need for crea-ve and innova-ve approaches •  Unknown Unknowns •  The Leader’s Job: •  Probe, Sense, Respond •  Increased levels of interac-on and communica-on •  Use methods that help generate ideas •  Danger! •  Tempta-on to fall back into habitual command-and-control mode •  Tempta-on to look for facts rather than allowing pa"erns to emerge •  Desire to cut short -me involved Cynefin – Complex domain
42. 42 Cynefin – Chaotic domain
43. •  Characteris@cs: •  High turbulence •  Many decisions and no -me •  High tension •  The Leader’s Job: •  Act, Sense, Respond •  Look for what works instead of seeking right answers •  Provide clear, direct communica-on •  Danger! •  Applying a command-and-control approach longer than needed •  Missed opportunity for innova-on •  Chaos unabated Cynefin – Chaotic domain
44. If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there 44 Cynefin – Disorder
45. Find customers and run cheap experiments to check if your assump@ons are correct 45 Scientific Method
46. 46 Structured exploration of uncertainty
47. 47 Lean thinking
49. Cynefin – Simple domain 49 Kim Ballestrin
50. h"ps://www.infoq.com/minibooks/cynefin-mini-book h"p://www.slideshare.net/Kim_B/cynefin-and-agile-last-conf-july-2012 h"ps://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making h"p://classes.bus.oregonstate.edu/ba352/elton/Ar-cles/Decision%20Making.pptx h"ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8 h"p://cogni-ve-edge.com/ h"p://www.davefarley.net/ h"ps://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/ h"ps://www.amazon.com/Lean-Enterprise-Performance-Organiza-ons-Innovate/dp/ 1449368425/ h"ps://www.amazon.com/Management-3-0-Developers-Developing-Addison-Wesley-ebook/dp/ B004ISL6JY/ Resources
51. high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology belief in stationary (sustained, stable outcomes) in a complex situation leads to blindness, which can yield catastrophic results
52. Any tool/methodology/framework can be misused
54. h"ps://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/61/cf/81/61cf81c3b2b4b1bf636e11bc2cc5f479.gif Thank you