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Managing for Serendipity

Lunivore
October 15, 2019

Managing for Serendipity

We know that in our landscape of people and technology, aiming for a particular outcome doesn't always lead to us getting what we want. Sometimes the best results come from approaching a problem obliquely. But in Agile our highest priority is to satisfy the customer through the early and continuous delivery of valuable software. We like to start with the outcome, meet the needs of our users, delivering high-quality working software with happy teams and true agility... but how might that focus be holding us back, and what are the alternatives?

In this talk we look at some different strategies for approaching complex ecosystems, starting from where we are right now, and allowing innovation to emerge through obliquity, naivety, and serendipity.

Lunivore

October 15, 2019
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  1. Liz Keogh
    @lunivore
    http://lizkeogh.com
    @lunivore

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  2. http://lizkeogh.com
    “Off the Charts”

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  3. @lunivore
    O-S
    Late D
    Cap
    P-Tr
    Tr-J K-Pg
    %age of marine animal genera extinct
    ma

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  4. CC-BY-SA 4.0 Bjoervedt
    CC-BY 4.0 Dinoguy2
    CC-BY-SA 3.0 N. Tamura
    Anchiornis Huxleyi

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  5. @lunivore
    Exaptation

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  6. Complicated
    Obvious
    Chaotic
    Complex sense-analyse-respond
    sense-categorise-respond
    probe-sense-respond
    act-sense-respond
    Governing constraints
    Fixed constraints
    Enabling constraints
    No effective constraint
    Good Practice
    Best Practice
    Emergent Practice
    Novel Practice
    Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd..
    Used with kind permission.
    Cynefin

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  7. A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…
    Indicators of success
    Indicators of failure
    Amplification actions
    Dampening actions
    Coherence
    http://cognitive-edge.com/methods/safe-to-fail-probes/

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  8. Coherence
    A realistic reason
    for thinking the probe
    might have a
    positive impact
    A sufficiency of evidence to progress
    Can you give me an example?
    @lunivore

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  9. In uncertainty…
    coherence over hypothesis
    @lunivore

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  10. Correlated in Retrospect
    n
    t
    @lunivore

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  11. @lunivore
    G.H.R. Koenigswald
    CC BY-SA 3.0 Tropenmuseum

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  12. @lunivore
    “…the company
    that put more emphasis
    on profit
    in its declaration of objectives
    was the less profitable
    in its financial statements.”
    - John Kay

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  13. @lunivore
    Viagra photo by Tim Reckmann, CC SA 3.0
    Walkman by Esa Sorjonen
    Space invaders by Bago Games, CC BY 2.0
    Car Genie copyright AA

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  14. @lunivore
    My favourite thing

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  15. @lunivore
    http://www.goodexperience.com/blog/
    2011/04/ignore-the-customer-e.php

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  16. “Humans do not make rational logical
    decisions… they pattern match with either their
    own experience, or collective experience
    expressed as stories. It isn’t even a best fit
    pattern match but a first fit pattern match.”
    - Dave Snowden, “Managing for Serendipity”
    @lunivore

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  17. @lunivore
    “We may conclude from an
    effect to the pre-existence
    of a cause competent to
    produce that effect.“
    - Thomas Henry Huxley
    CC-BY-SA 3.0
    N. Tamura

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  18. @lunivore
    With kind permission of Dr Lucy King (pictured)
    http://elephantsandbees.com

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  19. “Once prototypes are set free in the market,
    they will link with the nearly infinite universe
    of idiosyncratic needs, contexts, wants
    and combinatorial imagination
    of users out there.”
    - Pierpaolo Andriani
    (via Tim Kastelle, “Innovation through Exaptation”)
    @lunivore

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  20. Radical Emergence
    “Some things that weren’t possible at all before
    suddenly become possible.
    A valley opens up where there was
    a mountain ahead of you before.”
    - Alicia Juarrero
    @lunivore

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  21. A Wardley Map
    Simon Wardley
    CC-BY-SA 3.0
    Not just the customers you’ve got,
    but the customers you could have.

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  22. @lunivore
    Liz Keogh
    [email protected]
    @lunivore
    http://lizkeogh.com

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  23. Resources:
    Dave Snowden, Managing for Serendipity
    Alicia Juarrero, Constraints that enable innovation
    Tim Kastelle, Innovation through Exaptation
    Dave King, Using technology to facilitate “aha” moments
    @lunivore

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