Decision-Making for Grown-ups

In this talk Liz introduces different ways of looking at the world that help us choose the right approach, including Cynefin, a framework for making sense of situations depending on certainty or uncertainty; Wardley Mapping, which lets us understand our organizational and technical structure as it evolves; and Real Options, the principles of which help us to postpone decisions until we have more information.

Find out how these lenses and their associated tools are helping modern leaders to navigate their changing landscapes and ecosystems with clearer insight, less frustration, less risk and faster delivery.

Transcript

1. Liz Keogh @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com @lunivore
2. “Humans do not make rational logical decisions… they pattern match with either their own experience, or collective experience expressed as stories. It isn’t even a best fit pattern match but a first fit pattern match.” - Dave Snowden, “Managing for Serendipity” @lunivore
4. @lunivore Diego Delso, delso.photo, License CC-BY-SA 4.0
5. Google effect Apophenia Pareidolia Confirmation Bias Actor- Observer Bias Illusion of Control Insensitivity to sample size Omission bias Negativity bias Naïve cynicism Fundamental Attribution Error System justification Worse-than- average effect Illusion of transparency Trait ascryption Cryptomnesia Choice- supportive bias Forer effect Normalcy bias Bandwagon effect Decoy effect Hyperbolic discounting Restraint bias Stereotyping Distinction bias Pseudocertainty effect Pessimism bias Optimism bias Moral luck False consensus effect Anchoring Congruence Overconfidence effect Loss Aversion 159 Cognitive Biases on Wikipedia
7. Stephen Bungay, “The Art of Action” @lunivore Intent Outcomes Plans Actions Effects Gap Knowledge Gap Alignment Gap What we expect our actions to achieve and what they actually achieve What we want people to do and what they actually do What we would like to know and what we actually know
8. Stephen Bungay, “The Art of Action” @lunivore Intent Outcomes Plans Actions Effects Gap Knowledge Gap Alignment Gap More Controls More Instructions More Information
9. Information Arrival @lunivore t Information Point at which most decisions are made
10. @lunivore Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. Used with kind permission. “Innovation Cycle” with thanks to David J. Anderson Commodities Differentiators Build on Spoilers The Innovation Cycle
11. @lunivore Complicated Obvious Chaotic Complex sense-analyse-respond sense-categorise-respond probe-sense-respond act-sense-respond Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. Used with kind permission. Cynefin
12. @lunivore
13. @lunivore Complicated Obvious Chaotic Complex sense-analyse-respond sense-categorise-respond probe-sense-respond act-sense-respond Governing constraints Fixed constraints Enabling constraints No effective constraint Good Practice Best Practice Emergent Practice Novel Practice Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. Used with kind permission. Cynefin
14. Estimating Complexity 5. Nobody has ever done it before 4. Someone outside the org has done it before 3. Someone in the org has done it before 2. Someone in the team has done it before 1. We all know how to do it.
15. @lunivore 5 4 3 2 1
16. @lunivore Complicated Obvious Chaotic Complex sense-analyse-respond sense-categorise-respond probe-sense-respond act-sense-respond Governing constraints Fixed constraints Enabling constraints No effective constraint Good Practice Best Practice Emergent Practice Novel Practice Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. Used with kind permission. Cynefin
17. A Wardley Map Simon Wardley CC-BY-SA 3.0
18. Julian Birkinshaw’s Organizing Models Bureaucracy Position By Rules Hierarchy Extrinsic Rewards Meritocracy Knowledge Mutual Adjustment Logical Argument Personal Mastery Adhocracy Action Opportunity Experiment- ation Achievement @lunivore
19. @lunivore “Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.”
20. Observe data Filter data Generate assumptions Draw conclusions Build beliefs
21. Deliberate Discovery -- Dan North Assume ignorance Assume second order ignorance Optimize for discovery
22. Real Options -- Chris Matts Options have value. Options expire. Never commit early unless you know why.
23. Correlated in Retrospect n t @lunivore
24. Where are your commitments and investments? @lunivore Yearly budgeting cycle Up-front analysis work Work done but not in use High cost of making ready for use Regulatory requirements Quarterly / rolling budget Regulatory feedback Lightweight planning Small, frequent changes Great engineering, continuous deployment, culture of change
25. “Crossing the Chasm” -- Geoffrey Moore @lunivore
26. “The LASCOT Community” -- Chris Matts @lunivore
27. Concepts from this talk Wikipedia: Epiphany vs. Apophany Dave Snowden: Cynefin Liz Keogh: Complexity Estimation Simon Wardley: Wardley Mapping Julian Birkinshaw: Bureaucracy, Meritocracy, Adhocracy Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow (System 1 vs. System 2) Dan North: Deliberate Discovery Chris Matts: Real Options Bjarte Bogsnes: Beyond Budgeting Chris Matts: Communities of Needs vs. Solutions Dave Snowden: Governing vs. Enabling Constraints
28. @lunivore Liz Keogh liz@lunivore.com @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com