Revolution, Evolution and Extinction

Since the earliest days of fire and stone to our modern silicon age, humans have experienced revolutions in power and technology. Some say we’re now in the Fourth Industrial Revolution – but how do revolutions happen? Is it really the fourth? And what’s happening to our world as a result?

Find out about the latest data on climate change; Kondratiev waves, the capital flow cycle which permeates our global industry; shibboleths, tribal symbols and the spread of both information and misinformation; and how and why we might usefully act and connect our communities to an uprising of both people and technology, in this, possibly our sixth industrial revolution… and the sixth global extinction event.

Transcript

1. Liz Keogh @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com @lunivore
2. http://lizkeogh.com “Off the Charts”
3. O-S Late D Cap P-Tr Tr-J K-Pg O-S 2.3 my Earth cooling down, volcanos Late D 500,000y to 25 my Not sure, probably volcanos Cap / P-Tr 6 my approx Definitely volcanos 96% marine species, 70% vertebrates Tr-J < 10,000y Climate change, meteors, also volcanos K-Pg Rapid; all continents simultaneously. Pretty sure it was a meteor. %age of marine animal genera extinct ma
4. CC-BY-SA 4.0 Bjoervedt CC-BY 4.0 Dinoguy2 CC-BY-SA 3.0 N. Tamura Anchiornis Huxleyi
5. @lunivore Exaptation
6. @lunivore UCL Experiment: Snakes under rocks Find a snake? Get a shock! Varying probability of snakes Most stress at 50%
8. @lunivore Complicated Obvious Chaotic Complex analyse categorise probe act Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. Used with kind permission. Cynefin
9. Estimating Complexity 5. Nobody has ever done it before 4. Someone outside the org has done it before 3. Someone in the org has done it before 2. Someone in the team has done it before 1. We all know how to do it.
10. @lunivore 5 4 3 2 1
11. Correlated in Retrospect n t @lunivore
12. @lunivore
13. @lunivore http://www.goodexperience.com/blog/ 2011/04/ignore-the-customer-e.php
14. @lunivore G.H.R. Koenigswald CC BY-SA 3.0 Tropenmuseum
15. @lunivore
16. @lunivore Viagra photo by Tim Reckmann, CC SA 3.0 Walkman by Esa Sorjonen Space invaders by Bago Games, CC BY 2.0 Car Genie copyright AA
17. Photo: National Park Service, USA Earliest stone tools 3.3 million years ago
18. @lunivore Meteoric iron: 3200 BC Iron working: 2500 BC (ish)
19. Mechanized spinning 1780s
20. Photo: Library of Congress, USA
21. 1700s: Steam power 1800s: Electricity 1900s: Computing & IT 2000s: The Fourth Industrial Revolution! @lunivore
22. The 4th Industrial Revolution “It is characterized by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres… The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent.” -- Klaus Shwab, World Economic Forum
23. CC BY-SA 4.0 Paul Hughes, Wikimedia CC BY-SA 4.0 Ian Maddox, Wikimedia
24. “We use the 4th industrial revolution as a shibboleth.“ - Simon Wardley @lunivore “Then said (the Gileadites) unto him, Say now Shibboleth: and he said Sibboleth: for he could not frame to pronounce it right. Then they took him, and slew him at the passages of Jordan: and there fell at that time of the Ephraimites forty and two thousand.” - Judges 12:6
25. Revolution Technologies 1771 – “The Industrial Revolution” Mechanized cotton Wrought iron Machinery 1829 – Steam and Railways Steam engines & power Iron & coal mining Railways 1875 – Steel, Electricity, Heavy engineering Steam-powered ships Chemistry, copper, cables Cans, bottles, paper 1908 – Oil, Automobile, Mass production Transportation networks Electrical appliances Internal combustion engine 1971 – Information, Telecommunication Computers, software Telecommunications Control instruments
26. Kondratiev Waves CC-BY SA 3.0, Rursus @ Wikimedia
28. @lunivore Alphabet Facebook Apple Netflix
29. @lunivore Uber Lyft Spotify Microsoft
30. A Wardley Map Simon Wardley CC-BY-SA 3.0 @swardley
31. @lunivore “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” - Max Planck
33. @lunivore “I estimate that the world, today, has twenty-two million programmers... That’s a growth rate of 14.5% per year, or a doubling rate of five years.” - Bob Martin, “My Lawn”, 2014
34. https://dayssincelastjavascriptframework.com/ https://hugovk.github.io/dayssincelastjavascriptframework/ How many days since the last Javascript framework?
35. “But more and more of business in general is becoming computer-related just at the same time as it is going to have to exhibit a more human face. Tomorrow’s workforce, it will be shown, is going to require both…” “…‘joke of the day’ is a crucial part of the high-tech transmission.” @lunivore
36. @lunivore A strong tribe must have: - a great leader - a common enemy - clearly defined symbols - a walled city – a place of refuge where things of value are kept
37. Strong Tribes: @lunivore Iv+ IS+ IS- Iv- Individuals feel valuable and safe Tv+ TS+ TS- Tv- The tribe feels valuable but threatened
38. @lunivore Step 1: Establish a sense of urgency.
39. @lunivore Photo: Darren Hobbs
40. @lunivore
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42. @lunivore CC BY 3.0 Molly Cato Carole Cadwalladr, TED Facebook’s role in Brexit – and the threat to democracy “So we have no idea… who placed the ads, or how much money was spent, or even what nationality they were. But Facebook does. Facebook has these answers, and it's refused to give them to us.”
45. @lunivore “…we will be in a position where we set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control, that will most likely lead to the end of our civilisation as we know it.” - Greta Thunberg to UK MPs, 23 April 2019 CC BY-SA 4.0, Anders Hellberg, Wikimedia
46. @lunivore
47. IPCC 2018 Summary for Policy-Makers
48. @lunivore “In high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model.” - Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach, 2019
49. CC BY 2.0 Peter Trimming
50. @lunivore Photo copyright Kate Green used with kind permission
51. @lunivore
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53. @lunivore
54. @lunivore “The reality is the science demands a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2030. If that isn’t possible within the current system, then it’s the system that needs to go, not the target.” - The Guardian, 25th Sept 2019
55. @lunivore
56. Adopt a regenerative culture. Carbon-offset your flights / cars: https://www.goclimateneutral.org/ Contact your parliament. Sign petitions. Join protests. Recycle all the things! And use less of the bad stuff. Share the information. Tell the stories. Send the signals. Make it cool to be saving the world.