Revolution, Evolution and Extinction

Since the earliest days of fire and stone to our modern silicon age, humans have experienced revolutions in power and technology. Some say we’re now in the Fourth Industrial Revolution – but how do revolutions happen? Is it really the fourth? And what’s happening to our world as a result?

Find out about the latest data on climate change; Kondratiev waves, the capital flow cycle which permeates our global industry; shibboleths, tribal symbols and the spread of both information and misinformation; and how and why we might usefully act and connect our communities to an uprising of both people and technology, in this, possibly our sixth industrial revolution… and the sixth global extinction event.

Transcript

1. Liz Keogh
   @lunivore
   http://lizkeogh.com
   @lunivore
   

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2. http://lizkeogh.com
   “Off the Charts”
   

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3. O-S
   Late D
   Cap
   P-Tr
   Tr-J K-Pg
   O-S 2.3 my
   Earth cooling down, volcanos
   Late D 500,000y to 25 my
   Not sure, probably volcanos
   Cap /
   P-Tr
   6 my approx
   Definitely volcanos
   96% marine species, 70%
   vertebrates
   Tr-J < 10,000y
   Climate change, meteors,
   also volcanos
   K-Pg Rapid; all continents
   simultaneously.
   Pretty sure it was a meteor.
   %age of marine animal genera extinct
   ma
   

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4. CC-BY-SA 4.0 Bjoervedt
   CC-BY 4.0 Dinoguy2
   CC-BY-SA 3.0 N. Tamura
   Anchiornis Huxleyi
   

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5. @lunivore
   Exaptation
   

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6. @lunivore
   UCL Experiment: Snakes under rocks
   Find a snake? Get a shock!
   Varying probability of snakes
   Most stress at 50%
   

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8. @lunivore
   Complicated
   Obvious
   Chaotic
   Complex analyse
   categorise
   probe
   act
   Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd..
   Used with kind permission.
   Cynefin
   

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9. Estimating Complexity
   5. Nobody has ever done it before
   4. Someone outside the org has done it before
   3. Someone in the org has done it before
   2. Someone in the team has done it before
   1. We all know how to do it.
   

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10. @lunivore
    5 4 3
    2
    1
    

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11. Correlated in Retrospect
    n
    t
    @lunivore
    

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12. @lunivore
    

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13. @lunivore
    http://www.goodexperience.com/blog/
    2011/04/ignore-the-customer-e.php
    

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14. @lunivore
    G.H.R. Koenigswald
    CC BY-SA 3.0 Tropenmuseum
    

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15. @lunivore
    

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16. @lunivore
    Viagra photo by Tim Reckmann, CC SA 3.0
    Walkman by Esa Sorjonen
    Space invaders by Bago Games, CC BY 2.0
    Car Genie copyright AA
    

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17. Photo: National Park Service, USA
    Earliest stone tools
    3.3 million
    years ago
    

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18. @lunivore
    Meteoric iron: 3200 BC
    Iron working: 2500 BC (ish)
    

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19. Mechanized spinning
    1780s
    

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20. Photo: Library of Congress, USA
    

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21. 1700s: Steam power
    1800s: Electricity
    1900s: Computing & IT
    2000s: The Fourth Industrial
    Revolution!
    @lunivore
    

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22. The 4th Industrial
    Revolution
    “It is characterized by a fusion of
    technologies that is
    blurring the lines between the
    physical, digital, and biological spheres…
    The speed of current breakthroughs
    has no historical precedent.”
    -- Klaus Shwab, World Economic Forum
    

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23. CC BY-SA 4.0 Paul Hughes, Wikimedia
    CC BY-SA 4.0 Ian Maddox, Wikimedia
    

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24. “We use the 4th industrial
    revolution as a shibboleth.“
    - Simon Wardley
    @lunivore
    “Then said (the Gileadites) unto him, Say
    now Shibboleth: and he said Sibboleth: for
    he could not frame to pronounce it right.
    Then they took him, and slew him at the
    passages of Jordan: and there fell at that
    time of the Ephraimites forty and two
    thousand.”
    - Judges 12:6
    

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25. Revolution Technologies
    1771 – “The Industrial
    Revolution”
    Mechanized cotton
    Wrought iron
    Machinery
    1829 – Steam and Railways Steam engines & power
    Iron & coal mining
    Railways
    1875 – Steel, Electricity,
    Heavy engineering
    Steam-powered ships
    Chemistry, copper, cables
    Cans, bottles, paper
    1908 – Oil, Automobile,
    Mass production
    Transportation networks
    Electrical appliances
    Internal combustion engine
    1971 – Information,
    Telecommunication
    Computers, software
    Telecommunications
    Control instruments
    

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26. Kondratiev Waves
    CC-BY SA 3.0, Rursus @ Wikimedia
    

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28. @lunivore
    Alphabet Facebook
    Apple Netflix
    

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29. @lunivore
    Uber Lyft
    Spotify Microsoft
    

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30. A Wardley Map
    Simon Wardley
    CC-BY-SA 3.0
    @swardley
    

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31. @lunivore
    “A new scientific truth does not triumph by
    convincing its opponents and making them see
    the light, but rather because its opponents
    eventually die, and a new generation grows up
    that is familiar with it.”
    - Max Planck
    

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33. @lunivore
    “I estimate that the world, today, has
    twenty-two million programmers...
    That’s a growth rate of 14.5% per year,
    or a doubling rate of five years.”
    - Bob Martin, “My Lawn”, 2014
    

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34. https://dayssincelastjavascriptframework.com/
    https://hugovk.github.io/dayssincelastjavascriptframework/
    How many days
    since the last
    Javascript framework?
    

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35. “But more and more of
    business in general is
    becoming computer-related
    just at the same time as it is
    going to have to exhibit a
    more human face.
    Tomorrow’s workforce, it will
    be shown, is going to require
    both…”
    “…‘joke of the day’ is a
    crucial part of the high-tech
    transmission.”
    @lunivore
    

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36. @lunivore
    A strong tribe must have:
    - a great leader
    - a common enemy
    - clearly defined symbols
    - a walled city – a place of refuge
    where things of value are kept
    

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37. Strong Tribes:
    @lunivore
    Iv+
    IS+
    IS-
    Iv-
    Individuals feel
    valuable and
    safe
    Tv+
    TS+
    TS-
    Tv-
    The tribe feels
    valuable but
    threatened
    

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38. @lunivore
    Step 1:
    Establish a sense of urgency.
    

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39. @lunivore
    Photo: Darren Hobbs
    

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40. @lunivore
    

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41. @lunivore
    

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42. @lunivore
    CC BY 3.0 Molly Cato
    Carole Cadwalladr, TED
    Facebook’s role in Brexit –
    and the threat to democracy
    “So we have no idea… who
    placed the ads, or how much
    money was spent, or even what
    nationality they were.
    But Facebook does. Facebook
    has these answers, and it's
    refused to give them to us.”
    

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45. @lunivore
    “…we will be in a position
    where we set off an irreversible
    chain reaction beyond human
    control, that will most likely
    lead to the end of our
    civilisation as we know it.”
    - Greta Thunberg to UK MPs, 23
    April 2019
    CC BY-SA 4.0, Anders Hellberg, Wikimedia
    

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46. @lunivore
    

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47. IPCC 2018 Summary for Policy-Makers
    

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48. @lunivore
    “In high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction
    is beyond our capacity to model.”
    - Existential climate-related security risk:
    A scenario approach,
    2019
    

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49. CC BY 2.0 Peter Trimming
    

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50. @lunivore
    Photo copyright Kate Green
    used with kind permission
    

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51. @lunivore
    

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52. @lunivore
    

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53. @lunivore
    

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54. @lunivore
    “The reality is the science demands a pathway to
    net-zero emissions by 2030. If that isn’t possible
    within the current system, then it’s the system that
    needs to go, not the target.”
    - The Guardian, 25th Sept 2019
    

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55. @lunivore
    

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56. Adopt a regenerative culture.
    Carbon-offset your flights / cars:
    https://www.goclimateneutral.org/
    Contact your parliament. Sign petitions. Join protests.
    Recycle all the things! And use less of the bad stuff.
    Share the information. Tell the stories.
    Send the signals.
    Make it cool to be saving the world.
    

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