ICU 158 Teleconference Support Material

preliminary support material for the ICU 158 teleconference

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  158   Forecast  period:   November  2013  –  January  2014   Teleconference  Wednesday  30rd  of  November  2013     (12:30  AM  NZ  Dme)   30/10/13   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecDon,  circulaDon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (October  2013)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaDon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaDon  (MJO)  diagnosDcs  and  forecasts     5)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     6)  METPI  SST  Forecast     30/10/13   2   Outline     4)  Discussion  of  the  recent  Tropical  Cyclone  outlook    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   30/10/13   3  
4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     30/10/13   4  
5. 30/10/13   5  
6. 30/10/13   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product  
7. 30/10/13   7   Circula<on  anomalies:  Geopoten<al  at  1000hPa  and  wind   NCEP  /  DOE  to  the  28th  of  October  
8. SST  anomalies  September  2013   SST  anomalies  October  2013   30/10/13   8  
9. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     30/10/13   9  
10. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   30/10/13   Datasource  =  BoM  (h`p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10  
11. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (29st  October)  is  -­‐0.15  (was  -­‐0.46  last   month)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   30/10/13   h`p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   11  
12. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   30/10/13   12  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     30/10/13   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
14. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       30/10/13   14  
15. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     30/10/13   15  
16. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   30/10/13   h`p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h`p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     16  
17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   30/10/13   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     17  
18. 4)  Tropical  Cyclone  outlook:  November  2013  –  April  2014   30/10/13   18  
19. 30/10/13   19   Near  average  tropical  cyclone  numbers  for  the  region  is  likely,  with  increased  ac<vity  in  the   late  season    
20. 30/10/13   20   Early  and  Late  Season  composite   anomalies   Island  groups  outlooks  
21. 5)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   30/10/13   21  
22. 30/10/13   22   OND  2013   NDJ  2014  
23. 30/10/13   23   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!   November 2013 – January 2014 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Cook Islands (Southern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Papua New Guinea 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Tonga 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High FSM 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Northern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Fiji 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Niue 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Vanuatu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Kiribati (Western) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuvalu 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Kiribati (Eastern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Marquesas 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. The final column is an indication of the confidence in the forecast, and is determined by how well individual models (shown in the next table) agree. Island groups listed above are ranked from above to
24. 30/10/13   24   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   30/10/13   25  
26. 30/10/13   26   OND  2013   SST  anomalies  October  2013   NDJ  2014   Not  available  
27. 30/10/13   27   METPI  SST  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!