ICU 160 teleconference support material

Preliminary support material for the Island Climate Update teleconference (issue 160: January - March 2014)

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  160   Forecast  period:   January  –  March  2014   Teleconference  Wednesday  8th  of  January  2014   (12:30  AM  NZ  Cme)   8/01/14   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecCon,  circulaCon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (December  2013)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaCon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaCon  (MJO)  diagnosCcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     8/01/14   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   8/01/14   3  
4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     8/01/14   4  
5. 8/01/14   5  
6. 8/01/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product  
7. 8/01/14   7   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product   Southern  Cook  Islands   Northern  Cook  Islands   Society  Islands  
8. 8/01/14   8   Circula<on  anomalies:  Geopoten<al  at  1000hPa  and  wind  
9. SST  anomalies  November  2013   SST  anomalies  December  2013   8/01/14   9  
10. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     8/01/14   10  
11. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   8/01/14   Datasource  =  BoM  (h`p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   11  
12. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (7nd  Jan.)  is  -­‐1.07    (was  –0.77  last  month)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   8/01/14   h`p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   12  
13. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   8/01/14   13  
14. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     8/01/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
15. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       8/01/14   15  
16. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     8/01/14   16  
17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   8/01/14   h`p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h`p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   8/01/14   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  sta<s<cal  Forecast  (CPC)   8/01/14   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   8/01/14   20  
21. 8/01/14   21   DJF  2014   JFM  2014  
22. 8/01/14   22   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!   January – March 2014 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Fiji 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Tonga 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High FSM 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Kiribati (Western) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tuvalu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Vanuatu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Papua New Guinea 33 33 33 CLIMATOLOGY High Cook Islands (Northern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Kiribati (Eastern) 40 35 25 BELOW High Marquesas 45 35 20 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. The final column is an indication of the confidence in the forecast, and is determined by how well individual models (shown in the next table) agree. Island groups listed above are ranked from above to
23. 8/01/14   23   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  
24. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   8/01/14   24  
25. 8/01/14   25   DJF  2013   SST  anomalies  November  2013   JFM  2014   Not  available  
26. 8/01/14   26   METPI  SST  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!