ICU 173

Island Climate Upate 173 (February - April 2015) support material (preliminary)

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  173   Forecast  period:   February  –  April  2015   Teleconference  Wednesday  4  of  February  2015   (12:30  PM  NZ  Cme)   4/02/15   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecCon,  circulaCon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (January  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaCon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaCon  (MJO)  diagnosCcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     4/02/15   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   4/02/15   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     4/02/15   4  
5. 4/02/15   5   hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml  
6. 4/02/15   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
7. SST  anomalies  December  2014   SST  anomalies  January  2014   4/02/15   7  
8. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     4/02/15   8  
9. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   4/02/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   9  
10. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (2  Jan.)  is  -­‐0.04     (La  Nina  side  of  Neutral)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   4/02/15   hUp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   10  
11. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   4/02/15   11   hUp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/  
12. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   4/02/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12   hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   4/02/15   13   From  hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluCon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf     Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Recently, positive subsurface anomalies near the International Date Line have strengthened and shifted eastward. During January, negative subsurface temperature anomalies expanded in the eastern Pacific.
14. 4/02/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
15. Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion. During January - May 2014, the downwelling phase of a strong Kelvin wave crossed the Pacific. The upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave went through during May-July. During October-November, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased and shifted eastward in association with the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave. Since November, the upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward. Since January 2015, another downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave pushed eastward. 4/02/15   15   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   From  hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluCon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
16. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       4/02/15   16   Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   FMA  2015   0%   42%   58%   MJJ  2015   3%   45%   52%   ASO  2015   13%   41%   46%   IRI/CPC  Mid-­‐Month  Plume-­‐Based  ENSO  Forecast   ProbabiliCes  
17. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     4/02/15   17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   4/02/15   hUp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  hUp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   4/02/15   hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  sta<s<cal  Forecast  (CPC)   4/02/15   hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   4/02/15   21  
22. 4/02/15   22  
23. 4/02/15   23   METPI  rainfall  results   February – April 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Western) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Samoa 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Tokelau 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Tuvalu 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Society Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Northern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Kiribati (Eastern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Niue 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tonga 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Papua New Guinea 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Solomon Islands 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Fiji 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Marquesas 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High New Caledonia 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Vanuatu 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.
24. 4/02/15   24   METPI  rainfall  results  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   4/02/15   25  
26. 4/02/15   26