ICU_175

Preliminary support material for the ICU 175 (April - June 2015 forecast period) teleconference

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  175   Forecast  period:   April  –  June  2015   Teleconference  Wednesday  1  of  April  2015   (12:30  PM  NZ  Bme)   31/03/15   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecBon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (March  2015)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaBon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaBon  (MJO)  diagnosBcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     31/03/15   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   31/03/15   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     31/03/15   4  
5. 31/03/15   5   hSp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml  
6. 1/04/15   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
7. SST  anomalies  February  2014   SST  anomalies  March  2014   1/04/15   7  
8. 1/04/15   8  
9. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     31/03/15   9  
10. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   31/03/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hSp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10  
11. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (3  March)  is  +0.86   (El  Nino  side  of  Neutral)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   31/03/15   hSp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   11  
12. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   31/03/15   12   hSp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   31/03/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
14. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   31/03/15   14   From  hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluBon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
15. 31/03/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 15   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
16. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       31/03/15   16   IRI/CPC  Mid-­‐Month  Plume-­‐Based  ENSO  Forecast   ProbabiliBes   Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   AMJ  2015   0%   31%   69%   JAS  2015   2%   28%   70%   OND  2015   11%   30%   59%  
17. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     31/03/15   17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   31/03/15   hSp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  hSp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   31/03/15   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  sta<s<cal  Forecast  (CPC)   31/03/15   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   31/03/15   21  
22. 31/03/15   22  
23. 1/04/15   23   METPI  rainfall  results   Kiribati (Western) 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 33 33 33 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High New Caledonia 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Niue 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tonga 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Fiji 45 35 20 BELOW High Marquesas 45 35 20 BELOW High Papua New Guinea 45 35 20 BELOW High Vanuatu 45 35 20 BELOW High
24. 1/04/15   24   METPI  rainfall  results  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   31/03/15   25  
26. 1/04/15   26