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ICU_175
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Nicolas Fauchereau
March 31, 2015
Science
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91
ICU_175
Preliminary support material for the ICU 175 (April - June 2015 forecast period) teleconference
Nicolas Fauchereau
March 31, 2015
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Transcript
Island Climate Update 175 Forecast period: April –
June 2015 Teleconference Wednesday 1 of April 2015 (12:30 PM NZ Bme) 31/03/15 1
1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecBon and SST anomalies
last month (March 2015) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaBon and forecast 3) Madden-‐Julian OscillaBon (MJO) diagnosBcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 31/03/15 2 Outline
1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific
31/03/15 3
Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM) 31/03/15 4
31/03/15 5 hSp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
1/04/15 6 • Well below = < 40
% of normal • Below = between 40 and 80 % • Normal = between 80 and 120 % • Above = between 120 and 160 % • Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
SST anomalies February 2014 SST anomalies March 2014
1/04/15 7
1/04/15 8
2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast
31/03/15 9
SOI and SST NINO INDICES 31/03/15 Datasource =
BoM (hSp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10
The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days
(3 March) is +0.86 (El Nino side of Neutral) SOI and ESPI INDICES 31/03/15 hSp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 31/03/15
12 hSp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/
Ocean sub-‐surface temp anomalies (TAO) 31/03/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
Ocean sub-‐surface temp anomalies (TAO) 31/03/15 14
From hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluBon-‐status-‐fcsts-‐web.pdf
31/03/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 15 hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-‐10/ wksl_anm.gif
Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal
Guidance) 31/03/15 16 IRI/CPC Mid-‐Month Plume-‐Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliBes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. AMJ 2015 0% 31% 69% JAS 2015 2% 28% 70% OND 2015 11% 30% 59%
3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 31/03/15 17
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 31/03/15 hSp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or
hSp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 18
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 31/03/15 hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
19
Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 31/03/15 hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
20
4) METPI Rainfall forecasts 31/03/15 21
31/03/15 22
1/04/15 23 METPI rainfall results Kiribati (Western)
20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 33 33 33 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High New Caledonia 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Niue 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tonga 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Fiji 45 35 20 BELOW High Marquesas 45 35 20 BELOW High Papua New Guinea 45 35 20 BELOW High Vanuatu 45 35 20 BELOW High
1/04/15 24 METPI rainfall results
6) METPI SST forecasts 31/03/15 25
1/04/15 26