Support material for Island Climate Update 168

forecast period September to November 2014

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  168   Forecast  period:   September  –  November  2014   Teleconference  Wednesday  3rd  of  September  2014   (11:30  AM  NZ  Cme)   3/09/14   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecCon,  circulaCon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (August  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaCon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaCon  (MJO)  diagnosCcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     3/09/14   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   3/09/14   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     3/09/14   4  
5. 3/09/14   5  
6. 3/09/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
7. SST  anomalies  July2014   SST  anomalies  August  2014   3/09/14   7  
8. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     3/09/14   8  
9. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   3/09/14   Datasource  =  BoM  (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   9  
10. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (2  Sep.)  is  -­‐0.82     (large  decrease  over  the  past  few  days)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   3/09/14   h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   10  
11. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   3/09/14   11  
12. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/09/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/09/14   13   From  h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluCon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
14. 3/09/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
15. 3/09/14   15   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   From  h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluCon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
16. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       3/09/14   16  
17. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     3/09/14   17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   3/09/14   h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   3/09/14   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  sta<s<cal  Forecast  (CPC)   3/09/14   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   3/09/14   21  
22. 3/09/14   22   UKMO  Seasonal  Forecast NSIPP  GMAO  Rainfall   http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/plots/2014/jul/atmos//precip/precip_anom_2014_3_seasonal.gif  
23. 3/09/14   23   METPI  rainfall  results  
24. 3/09/14   24   METPI  rainfall  results  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   3/09/14   25  
26. 3/09/14   26