The benefits of cycling: economic, social, environmental

Talk prepared for the Hackney Cycling Conference

Transcript

1. The benefits of cycling Economic, social, environmental Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Created with open source software Slides: speakerdeck.com/robinlovelace Image credit: http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5976
2. Tools of the trade: pricey http://www.oasys-software.com/products/engineering/massmotion.html
3. The costs of transport planning
4. Part I: The benefits of collaboration Credit: flickr CC license
5. The costs of incompatibility
6. Doing it right: CycleStreets.net http://www.cyclestreets.net/journey/44700192/
7. The solution: open source software
8. A caveat about open source • We want less stuff like this… • • • And more like this!
9. Part II: Which benefits? Credit: Robin Lovelace
10. Back to the benefits of cycling... • Economic • Social • Environment • Which to focus on? • Others? • It depends
11. But how do these operate? Cycling
12. The complex view of impact Cycling
13. A focus on energy • Links economy, society and environment • Is (relatively) easily quantifiable • Is linked to major global problems • Relates to everyday life
14. The UK context: time
15. UK Transport energy use over geographical space Source: http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/
16. System boundaries in assessment Source: http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/
17. Energy costs by mode Source: http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/
18. Source: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184
19. A case study: sheffield Source: Lovelace et al. (2011): http://linkinghub.elsevi er.com/retrieve/pii/S0 301421511000620
20. Energy savings in Sheffield “The fuel saving under scenario I amounts to 44.2 TJ or 0.3% of the estimated energy content of fuel burnt in Sheffield cars in 2009.” Source: Lovelace et al. (2011)
21. Does cycling energy benefits? → http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/
22. The motorway network in Holland “In the Netherlands there are 2631 km of motorways whereas in the England there are 3673 (Eurostat, 2013, via the UK Data Service). These values equate to roughly 150 km of motorway per million people in the Netherlands, compared with only 70 km per million in England, less than half.” (Lovelace, 2014: my thesis) http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ “The Germans drive more too.” (Melia, 2015)
23. Exploring the wider benefits: • “Cycling has saved me” • “You feel fresh and alert at work” • “I've saved a packet since selling the car” • “My bicycle has given me independence”
24. Part III: The national context Credit: Robin Lovelace
25. Where are we starting from? http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/
26. What is Get Britain Cycling? • GBC = optimistic vision of a cycling nation • Scenario with quantitative targets • Overview of policies needed to get there • Produced for MPs by the APPCG, April 2013
27. • “the long-term ambition should be to increase cycle use to 10% of all journeys in 2025, and 25% by 2050” • Case studies of growth (e.g. Devon) • Funding: needs > £10 person/yr The GBC report “For technical reasons, computer modelling and forecasting has played little role in assessing the future potential of the volume of cycling” (Goodwin 2013)
28. Limitations of GBC • Lacks timeline beyond targets for 2025 and 2050 • No geographical disaggregation of cycling uptake • Nothing on who would be cycling where, replacing which modes and for what trip types • Basically, great overview, scant on detail • So the first stage was to create scenarios
29. Modelling cycling uptake nationwide https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling
30. The Parliamentary Question (PQ)
31. The “Official” model in context • Based on economic growth, car-focussed • Cyclist Touring Club lobbied DfT to rectify this • Nationa Transport Model (NTM) cycling projections now being updated – evidence-based policy! Forec ast year Cycle trips - billion Cycle miles- billion Dista nce per trip 2010 1.2 2.9 2.4 2015 1.4 3.4 2.4 2020 1.3 3.2 2.5 2025 1.3 3 2.3 2030 1.3 3.1 2.4 2035 1.4 3.1 2.2 2040 1.4 3.1 2.2
32. Linear and “doubling in 10 yr” models • Realisti c? • Almost there for 2050 target • Way off 2025 target
33. Things can be linear for a while... • Doubling in 8 yr • “Levelling off” • Proxy for number of cycle trips in London • From “sixty automatic cycle counters” • Adjusted to account for season
34. Increasing distance of bicycle trips • Increased potential to replace car trips? • Or just “Wiggo effect”? – Leisure/utility trips? • Clashes with DfT model Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-travel-survey-2012
35. Comparison of data and models
36. Distance-decay varies with mode and reason for trip... Source: My Thesis, based on Iacono et al. (2011)
37. The Geo-dimension Flows into Sheffield's 4 largest Employing Output Area zones
38. Distance decay functions – look at the overlaps
39. Resulting report: national benefits
40. Benefits of cycling nationwide See https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling
41. Webtag estimates of benefit:cost See https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-tag-overview
42. Part IV: The local context
43. The Local Authority context
44. English metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties by type 2009, by Nilfanion and Dr Greg. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons -
45. The 'metropolitan' combined authorities Source: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06649/SN06649.pdf
46. Local Economic Partnerships (LEPs) http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/roads-nowhere/local-transport
47. http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/roads-nowhere/local-transport#lepmap
48. Part V: The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) (+ live demo!) Credit: Robin Lovelace
49. An open source policy planning tool
50. Part VI: How to increase the benefits?
51. Growing the benefits of cycling • Increase the 'replacement ratio' • Incentivise women, young people and old people cycling • More car-free areas • Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure? (a game of 2 halves)
52. Thanks for listening! Credit: Robin Lovelace Email. r.lovelace@leeds Twitter: @robinlovelace GitHub: robinlovelace
53. Key references • Goodwin, P. (2013). Get Britain cycling: report from the inquiry. London. Retrieved from http://allpartycycling.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/get-brit ain-cycling_goodwin-report.pdf • Kay, D., Reynolds, J., Rodrigues, S., Lee, A., Anderson, B., Gibbs, R., … Gill, T. (2011). Fairness in a car dependent society. Sustainable Development Commission: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184 • Lovelace, R., Beck, S. B. M. B. M., Watson, M., & Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy, 39(4), 2075–2087. • Lovelace, R. (2014). The energy costs of commuting: a spatial microsimulation approach. University of Sheffield. Retrieved from http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ • Melia, S. (2015). Urban Transport Without the Hot Air. Cambridge: UIT.