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The benefits of cycling: economic, social, environmental

Robin
June 05, 2015

The benefits of cycling: economic, social, environmental

Talk prepared for the Hackney Cycling Conference

Robin

June 05, 2015
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  1. The benefits of cycling Economic, social, environmental Robin Lovelace, University

    of Leeds. Created with open source software Slides: speakerdeck.com/robinlovelace Image credit: http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5976
  2. A caveat about open source • We want less stuff

    like this… • • • And more like this!
  3. Back to the benefits of cycling... • Economic • Social

    • Environment • Which to focus on? • Others? • It depends
  4. A focus on energy • Links economy, society and environment

    • Is (relatively) easily quantifiable • Is linked to major global problems • Relates to everyday life
  5. Energy savings in Sheffield “The fuel saving under scenario I

    amounts to 44.2 TJ or 0.3% of the estimated energy content of fuel burnt in Sheffield cars in 2009.” Source: Lovelace et al. (2011)
  6. The motorway network in Holland “In the Netherlands there are

    2631 km of motorways whereas in the England there are 3673 (Eurostat, 2013, via the UK Data Service). These values equate to roughly 150 km of motorway per million people in the Netherlands, compared with only 70 km per million in England, less than half.” (Lovelace, 2014: my thesis) http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ “The Germans drive more too.” (Melia, 2015)
  7. Exploring the wider benefits: • “Cycling has saved me” •

    “You feel fresh and alert at work” • “I've saved a packet since selling the car” • “My bicycle has given me independence”
  8. What is Get Britain Cycling? • GBC = optimistic vision

    of a cycling nation • Scenario with quantitative targets • Overview of policies needed to get there • Produced for MPs by the APPCG, April 2013
  9. • “the long-term ambition should be to increase cycle use

    to 10% of all journeys in 2025, and 25% by 2050” • Case studies of growth (e.g. Devon) • Funding: needs > £10 person/yr The GBC report “For technical reasons, computer modelling and forecasting has played little role in assessing the future potential of the volume of cycling” (Goodwin 2013)
  10. Limitations of GBC • Lacks timeline beyond targets for 2025

    and 2050 • No geographical disaggregation of cycling uptake • Nothing on who would be cycling where, replacing which modes and for what trip types • Basically, great overview, scant on detail • So the first stage was to create scenarios
  11. The “Official” model in context • Based on economic growth,

    car-focussed • Cyclist Touring Club lobbied DfT to rectify this • Nationa Transport Model (NTM) cycling projections now being updated – evidence-based policy! Forec ast year Cycle trips - billion Cycle miles- billion Dista nce per trip 2010 1.2 2.9 2.4 2015 1.4 3.4 2.4 2020 1.3 3.2 2.5 2025 1.3 3 2.3 2030 1.3 3.1 2.4 2035 1.4 3.1 2.2 2040 1.4 3.1 2.2
  12. Linear and “doubling in 10 yr” models • Realisti c?

    • Almost there for 2050 target • Way off 2025 target
  13. Things can be linear for a while... • Doubling in

    8 yr • “Levelling off” • Proxy for number of cycle trips in London • From “sixty automatic cycle counters” • Adjusted to account for season
  14. Increasing distance of bicycle trips • Increased potential to replace

    car trips? • Or just “Wiggo effect”? – Leisure/utility trips? • Clashes with DfT model Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-travel-survey-2012
  15. English metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties by type 2009, by Nilfanion

    and Dr Greg. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons -
  16. Part V: The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) (+

    live demo!) Credit: Robin Lovelace
  17. Growing the benefits of cycling • Increase the 'replacement ratio'

    • Incentivise women, young people and old people cycling • More car-free areas • Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure? (a game of 2 halves)
  18. Key references • Goodwin, P. (2013). Get Britain cycling: report

    from the inquiry. London. Retrieved from http://allpartycycling.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/get-brit ain-cycling_goodwin-report.pdf • Kay, D., Reynolds, J., Rodrigues, S., Lee, A., Anderson, B., Gibbs, R., … Gill, T. (2011). Fairness in a car dependent society. Sustainable Development Commission: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184 • Lovelace, R., Beck, S. B. M. B. M., Watson, M., & Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy, 39(4), 2075–2087. • Lovelace, R. (2014). The energy costs of commuting: a spatial microsimulation approach. University of Sheffield. Retrieved from http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ • Melia, S. (2015). Urban Transport Without the Hot Air. Cambridge: UIT.