Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
データ分析のための予備知識
Search
Sayoko Shimoyama
January 15, 2019
Education
0
220
データ分析のための予備知識
2019年1月に実施した「高槻市データ利活用研修」における研修資料の抜粋版です。
Sayoko Shimoyama
January 15, 2019
Tweet
Share
More Decks by Sayoko Shimoyama
See All by Sayoko Shimoyama
新春データ寺子屋2025〜DXリテラシー標準を読み解き、活用する
shishamous
0
56
DXは誰のため?何のために?
shishamous
1
210
DXへの第一歩 いかにX(変革)を起こすか
shishamous
2
170
奈良県統計データ利活用セミナー:データの力を業務の味方に
shishamous
0
350
データを使った現状把握と認識共有からはじめる社会変革
shishamous
0
150
2024新春データ寺子屋:2023 OECD OURdata Indexを読み解く
shishamous
1
140
黒部ふくしDXフォーラム:DXってなんだ?これから起こる社会の変化への対応
shishamous
0
200
デジタル活用・DXを体感するセミナー「DXは誰のため? 何のために?」
shishamous
0
230
自治体におけるデータ利活用〜最前線とその裏側
shishamous
1
570
Other Decks in Education
See All in Education
SkimaTalk Tutorial for Corporate Customers
skimatalk
0
290
SkimaTalk Teacher Guidelines Summary
skimatalk
0
790k
OJTに夢を見すぎていませんか? ロールプレイ研修の試行錯誤/tryanderror-in-roleplaying-training
takipone
1
160
OpenSourceSummitJapanを運営してみた話
kujiraitakahiro
0
710
Are puppies a ranking factor?
jonoalderson
0
840
データ分析
takenawa
0
6k
より良い学振申請書(DC)を作ろう 2025
luiyoshida
1
3.2k
ThingLink
matleenalaakso
28
4.1k
2025/06/05_読み漁り学習
nag8
0
140
社外コミュニティと「学び」を考える
alchemy1115
2
170
Gaps in Therapy in IBD - IBDInnovate 2025 CCF
higgi13425
0
500
CHARMS-HP-Banner
weltraumreisende
0
200
Featured
See All Featured
How To Stay Up To Date on Web Technology
chriscoyier
790
250k
Being A Developer After 40
akosma
90
590k
How to Create Impact in a Changing Tech Landscape [PerfNow 2023]
tammyeverts
53
2.8k
Why You Should Never Use an ORM
jnunemaker
PRO
58
9.4k
Navigating Team Friction
lara
187
15k
Statistics for Hackers
jakevdp
799
220k
Helping Users Find Their Own Way: Creating Modern Search Experiences
danielanewman
29
2.7k
How to Ace a Technical Interview
jacobian
277
23k
GraphQLの誤解/rethinking-graphql
sonatard
71
11k
Agile that works and the tools we love
rasmusluckow
329
21k
[RailsConf 2023] Rails as a piece of cake
palkan
55
5.6k
Testing 201, or: Great Expectations
jmmastey
42
7.6k
Transcript
ฏ ߴ௬ࢢσʔλར׆༻ݚम ʢʣ 20191݄15ʢՐʣ Ұൠࣾஂ๏ਓϦϯΫσʔλ දཧࣄ Լࢁ ࣿࢠ
σʔλੳͷͨΊͷ ༧උࣝ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλੳʹඞཁͳͷ ʮαΠΤϯςΟετࢥߟʯ ϊʔϕϧҩֶੜཧֶ ຊॸ༎ࢯ ʮڭՊॻΛ৴͡Δͳʯ ʮԿͰٙ͑ʯͱ͍͏Θ͚Ͱͳ͍ ༩͑ΒΕͨใΛશͯӏವΈʹ͢ΔͷͰͳ͘ɺ ʮຊʹͦ͏ͳͷͩΖ͏͔ʁʯ ʮͳͥͦ͏ͳͷͩΖ͏͔ʁʯ
ͱࣗͰߟ͑Δ࢟ αΠΤϯςΟετࢥߟ ͕ॏཁ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ҧ͍Λฉ͔ΕͨΒઆ໌Ͱ͖·͔͢ʁ σʔλ ใ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ʮσʔλʯͱʁ *40ٴͼ+*4ن֨ʹΑΔఆٛ "SFJOUFSQSFUBCMFSFQSFTFOUBUJPOPGJOGPSNBUJPOJOBGPSNBMJ[FENBOOFS TVJUBCMFGPSDPNNVOJDBUJPO JOUFSQSFUBUJPO PSQSPDFTTJOHz ใͷදݱͰ͋ͬͯɺ ୡɺղऍ·ͨॲཧʹద͢ΔΑ͏ʹܗࣜԽ͞Εɺ ࠶ใͱͯ͠ղऍͰ͖Δͷ *40
*&$ IUUQTX X X JTPPSHPCQVJJTPTUEJTPJFDFEFO ຊ ۀ ن ֨ ʮ 9 ใ ॲ ཧ ༻ ޠ ج ຊ ༻ ޠ ʯ IUUQLJLBLVSVJDPN Y9IUN M 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ʮใʯͱʁ *40ٴͼ+*4ن֨ʹΑΔఆٛ ,OPXMFEHFDPODFSOJOHPCKFDUT TVDIBTGBDUT FWFOUT UIJOHT QSPDFTTFT PSJEFBT JODMVEJOHDPODFQUT
UIBUXJUIJOBDFSUBJODPOUFYUIBTBQBSUJDVMBS NFBOJOH ࣄ࣮ɼࣄɼࣄɼաఔɼணͳͲͷ ରʹؔͯ͠Γಘͨ͜ͱͰ͋ͬͯɼ ֓೦ΛؚΈɼҰఆͷจ຺தͰಛఆͷҙຯΛͭͷɻ *40 *&$ IUUQTX X X JTPPSHPCQVJJTPTUEJTPJFDFEFO ຊ ۀ ن ֨ ʮ 9 ใ ॲ ཧ ༻ ޠ ج ຊ ༻ ޠ ʯ IUUQLJLBLVSVJDPN Y9IUN M 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλɺใΛܗࣜԽͨ͠ͷ σʔλ ใ ࠶ใͱͯ͠ղऍͰ͖Δͷ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ࣈ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ใ ʹ։࠵͞Εͨ ",#બൈ૯બڍʹ͓͚Δ ࢦݪᣦ೫ͷಘථ Ͱ͢ɻ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB ໊લ ",#બൈ૯બڍ ։࠵ ಘථ ࢦݪᣦ೫
ใ⁶σʔλ ํʹมՄೳ ໊લ ",# બൈ૯બ ڍ։࠵ ಘථ ࢦݪᣦ೫
ʹ։࠵͞Εͨ ",#બൈ૯બڍʹ͓͚Δ ࢦݪᣦ೫ͷಘථ Ͱ͢ɻ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλԽ͢Δ͜ͱͰ ৽͍͠ʮใʯ͕औΓग़ͤΔ ৽ͨͳʮใʯ͕ಘΒΕΔ ಘථ൪ଟ͔ͬͨ Ґͱൺͯഒ ಘථ͕ଟ͔ͬͨ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
Խ͞ΕͨσʔλΛࣔ͢͜ͱͰ ղऍͷᴥᴪΛݮΒͤΔ σʔλΞΧσϛʔʹ͓͚Δੳ՝ͷྫɿ ʮٹٸୂһͷ࠷దஔ͕Ͱ͖͍ͯͳ͍ʯ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
Խ͞ΕͨσʔλΛࣔ͢͜ͱͰ ղऍͷᴥᴪΛݮΒͤΔ ࢢͷ֤ୂͷୂһਓ͋ͨΓͷ ग़ಈ݅Λࢉग़ͯ͠ൺֱ ࠷େͰ ഒͷࠩ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
n ࣈݴ༿ΑΓղऍͷ෯͕ڱ͍ n ղऍͷᴥᴪ͕ݴ༿ʹൺͯ ى͜Γʹ͍͘ ग़ య ݩ ɿ σ ʔ λ Ξ Χ σ ϛ ʔ ʹ ͓ ͚ Δ ν ʔ Ϝ ͷ ൃ ද ࢿ ྉ
σʔλ׆༻ʹ͓͚Δ Α͋͘Δצҧ͍ ఆੑσʔλʹཱͨͳ͍ ૬͕ؔ͋ΕඞͣҼՌ͕ؔ͋Δ ΤϏσϯεΛٻΊΒΕͨ࣌ɺ σʔλΛࣔͤ0,ʂ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλ׆༻ʹ͓͚Δ Α͋͘Δצҧ͍ ఆੑσʔλʹཱͨͳ͍ ૬͕ؔ͋ΕඞͣҼՌ͕ؔ͋Δ ΤϏσϯεΛٻΊΒΕͨ࣌ɺ σʔλΛࣔͤ0,ʂ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλੑ࣭Ͱ େ͖ͭ͘ʹ͚ΒΕΔ ఆྔσʔλ nͰେখΛද͢͜ͱ͕ Ͱ͖Δσʔλ n٬؍ੑ͕ߴ͍ʢ୭͕ݟͯ େମಉ͡Α͏ʹղऍͰ͖Δʣ nϚΫϩͳࢹͰͷੳʹ ༻͍Δʢௗͷʣ ఆੑσʔλ
nͰදݱͰ͖ͳ͍จষͳͲ ͷσʔλ nओ؍ੑ͕ߴ͍ʢղऍͦͷਓ ͷ࣋ͭईʹҕͶΒΕΔʣ nϛΫϩͳࢹͰͷੳʹ ༻͍Δʢͷʣ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ఆྔσʔλͷྫɿ Ξϯέʔτͷબ߲ ࢢʹ͓͚Δߦ৬һ͚σʔλ׆༻ݚमͷΞϯέʔτΑΓ ͋ͳͨɺʑͷۀͷதͰɺσʔλΛ׆༻ग़དྷ͍ͯΔͱࢥ͍·͔͢ʁ ̍ɽेʹग़དྷ͍ͯΔ ̎ɽग़དྷ͍ͯΔ ̏ɽ͋·Γग़དྷ͍ͯͳ͍ ̐ɽ·ͬͨ͘ग़དྷ͍ͯͳ͍ ̍ɽेʹग़དྷ͍ͯΔ
̎ɽग़དྷ͍ͯΔ ̏ɽ͋·Γग़དྷ͍ͯͳ͍ ̐ɽ·ͬͨ͘ग़དྷ͍ͯͳ͍ ूܭͯ͠ԽͰ͖Δ ఆྔσʔλ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ఆྔσʔλͷ͍Ͳ͜Ζ ʮ၆ᛌʯ nͰൺֱ͢Δ͜ͱͰɺঢ়ଶΛ၆ᛌతʹѲͰ͖Δ n౷Ұ͞Εͨج४ͰൺֱͰ͖Δ શडߨऀͷ ͕ৗͷ ۀͰσʔλΛ׆༻Ͱ͖͍ͯΔ 2 ͋
ͳ ͨ ɺ ʑ ͷ ۀ ͷ த Ͱ ɺ σ ʔ λ Λ ׆ ༻ ग़ དྷ ͯ ͍ Δ ͱ ࢥ ͍ · ͢ ͔ ʁ ݚमͷ ࣮ࢪ ݚम࣮ࢪલ શडߨऀͷ ͕ৗͷ ۀͰσʔλΛ׆༻Ͱ͖͍ͯΔ ݚम࣮ࢪޙ 2 ͋ ͳ ͨ ɺ ʑ ͷ ۀ ͷ த Ͱ ɺ σ ʔ λ Λ ׆ ༻ ग़ དྷ ͯ ͍ Δ ͱ ࢥ ͍ · ͢ ͔ ʁ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ఆੑσʔλͷྫɿ Ξϯέʔτͷࣗ༝هड़߲ ࢢʹ͓͚Δߦ৬һ͚σʔλ׆༻ݚमͷΞϯέʔτΑΓ σʔλ׆༻ʹ͍ͭͯɺ՝͕͋Εڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞ɻʢࣗ༝هड़ʣ ԽͰ͖ͳ͍ ʹఆੑσʔλ σʔλऩूɺ׆༻ɺఏڙͷϊϋෆ ݱࡏͷۀ༰্ɺ͋·Γଟ͘ͷσʔλΛѻΘͳ͍ͨΊɺ׆༻ํ๏ʹΜͰ͍Δ Φʔϓϯσʔλͷ֓೦͕શ͘ਁಁ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ɺࣄσʔλλςׂΓ ̥̘ɺϋʔυɾιϑτڥ͕ෆ͍ͯ͠Δʢॲཧೳྗʣ
ීஈͷۀ͔Β׆༻ͨ͠ޙͷΠϝʔδ͕Θ͔Βͳ͍ σʔλΛݟͯԿ͔Λײ͡ͱΔɺѲ͢Δ͜ͱʹۤखҙ͕ࣝ͋Γ׆༻·ͰࢸΒͳ͍ɺηϯεʁ׳Εʁ ະͷ༗ޮ׆༻͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ிσʔλ͕ଘࡏ͢ΔͱࢥΘΕΔ ɾɾɾ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ఆੑσʔλͷ͍Ͳ͜Ζ ʮਂ۷Γʯ nఆྔσʔλΑΓใྔଟ͍ͨΊɺݸʑͷঢ়ଶΛΑΓਂ۷Γ ͯ͠ѲͰ͖Δ n࣍ͷΞΫγϣϯΛݕ౼͢Δ্Ͱͷ͕ࣔࠦಘΒΕΔ σʔλऩूɺ׆༻ɺఏڙͷϊϋෆ ݱࡏͷۀ༰্ɺ͋·Γଟ͘ͷσʔλΛѻΘͳ͍ ͨΊɺ׆༻ํ๏ʹΜͰ͍Δ Φʔϓϯσʔλͷ֓೦͕શ͘ਁಁ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ɺࣄ σʔλλςׂΓ
̥̘ɺϋʔυɾιϑτڥ͕ෆ͍ͯ͠Δʢॲཧ ೳྗʣ ීஈͷۀ͔Β׆༻ͨ͠ޙͷΠϝʔδ͕Θ͔Βͳ͍ σʔλΛݟͯԿ͔Λײ͡ͱΔɺѲ͢Δ͜ͱʹۤख ҙ͕ࣝ͋Γ׆༻·ͰࢸΒͳ͍ɺηϯεʁ׳Εʁ ະͷ༗ޮ׆༻͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ிσʔλ͕ଘࡏ͢Δ ͱࢥΘΕΔ ɾɾɾ 2σʔλ׆༻ʹ͍ͭͯɺ՝͕͋Εڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞ɻ ྨɾ ཧ σʔλΛࣗ༝ʹ͑Δڥ͕ ͍ͬͯͳ͍ ࣗͷۀͱ݁ͼ͚ͯ ߟ͑Δ͜ͱ͕ࠔ σʔλΛ͏͜ͱʹର͢Δ യવͱͨۤ͠खײ͕֮͋Δ ݸผͷΠϯλϏϡʔͰΑΓঢ়گ Λਂ͘Ѳ ϐοΫΞοϓ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ఆྔσʔλɾఆੑσʔλ ͏·͘Έ߹Θͤͯ͏ඞཁ͕͋Δ ࢪࡦཱҊ ࢪࡦ࣮ࢪ ࢪࡦධՁ ՝ઃఆ ݱঢ়ͷ՝ΛѲ ͢Δ ࢪࡦ࣮ࢪʹΑΔ ඪΛઃఆ͠
ܭըΛཱͯΔ ͳ͘ࢪࡦΛ ࣮ࢪͰ͖͍ͯΔ͔ ֬ೝ͢Δ ࢪࡦΛ࣮ࢪͨ͠ ͜ͱʹΑΔޮՌ ӨڹΛධՁ͢Δ • ౷ܭௐࠪσʔλ • Ξϯέʔτ • ΠϯλϏϡʔ • ౷ܭௐࠪσʔλ • ྨࣅࣄྫͷධՁ σʔλ • ఆ؍ଌσʔλ • ࣮ࢪه • ηϯαʔػث ͷϩά • ఆ؍ଌͷ ൺֱσʔλ • Ξϯέʔτ • ΠϯλϏϡʔ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλ׆༻ʹ͓͚Δ Α͋͘Δצҧ͍ ఆੑσʔλʹཱͨͳ͍ ˠఆྔσʔλͱఆੑσʔλ͏·͍͚͘Δ ૬͕ؔ͋ΕඞͣҼՌ͕ؔ͋Δ ΤϏσϯεΛٻΊΒΕͨ࣌ɺ σʔλΛࣔͤ0,ʂ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλ׆༻ʹ͓͚Δ Α͋͘Δצҧ͍ ఆੑσʔλʹཱͨͳ͍ ˠఆྔσʔλͱఆੑσʔλ͏·͍͚͘Δ ૬͕ؔ͋ΕඞͣҼՌ͕ؔ͋Δ ΤϏσϯεΛٻΊΒΕͨ࣌ɺ σʔλΛࣔͤ0,ʂ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
૬ؔͱ ೋͭͷࣄ͕ີʹ͔͔ΘΓ߹͍ɺҰํ͕มԽ͢ΕଞํมԽ ͢ΔΑ͏ͳؔɻ ෛͷ૬ؔ ਖ਼ͷ૬ؔ Ұํͷ͕େ͖͘ͳΔͱɺ ͏Ұํͷେ͖͘ͳΔ Ұํͷ͕େ͖͘ͳΔͱɺ ͏Ұํͷখ͘͞ͳΔ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
૬ؔ㱠ҼՌؔ ྫʣΞΠεΫϦʔϜͷചΓ্͛ͱనࢮऀͷʹ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͨ ΞΠε͕ചΕΔͱ నࢮऀ͕૿͑Δ ؾԹͷ্ঢ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶃɿ ڞ௨ͷཁҼ͕͋Δʢަབྷʣ n$͕"ͱ#ʹӨڹΛ༩͍͑ͯΔঢ়ଶ n"ͱ#ͷؒʹతͳؔੑͳ͍ A B C 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶃɿ ڞ௨ͷཁҼ͕͋Δʢަབྷʣ nྫʣʮίʔώʔΛҿΉྔʯͱʮ৺ےߎ࠹ͷൃʯʹ ਖ਼ͷ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͨ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB ίʔώʔΛΑ͘ҿΉਓͰ λόίΛٵ͏ਓ͕ଟ͔ͬͨ ٤Ԏ͕৺ےߎ࠹ൃͷ ཁҼʹͳ͍ͬͯͨ
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶄɿ ҼՌؔͷํ͕ٯ n"ʹΑͬͯ#͕Ҿ͖ى͜͞ΕͨͷͰͳ͘ɺ#ʹΑͬͯ"͕Ҿ͖ى ͜͞Εͨ n૬ؔੳͰ࣌ؒతͳલޙ͕ؔݟ͑ͳ͍ͨΊɺؾ͖ͮʹ͍͘ A B 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶄɿ ҼՌؔͷํ͕ٯ nྫʣʮࣄނͷൃੜ݅ʯͱʮҙשىͷ൘ͷઃஔʯʹ ਖ਼ͷ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͨ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB
-JOL%BUB
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶅɿ બόΠΞε n"ͱ#ͷੳରσʔλ͕ҼՌͷ߹ྲྀ$ʹ͓͍ͯɺબൈʗผ ʗௐ͞Εͯ͠·͍ͬͯΔӨڹͰɺҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍ͷʹ૬͕ؔ ੜͯ͡͠·͏έʔε A B C 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB
-JOL%BUB
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶅɿ બόΠΞε nྫʣ࣮ٕࢼݧͷͱֶྗࢼݧͷͷ߹ܭͰ߹൱͕ܾ·Δ ࢼݧʹ͓͍ͯɺ߹֨ऀͷʮ࣮ٕࢼݧͷʯͱʮֶྗࢼݧͷ ʯʹෛͷ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͨ
4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶆɿ શ͘ͷۮવ nશ͘Կͷؔͳ͍"ͱ#Ͱ͋ͬͯɺۮવ૬͕ؔੜͯ͡͠·͏ έʔε A B 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍έʔεᶆɿ શ͘ͷۮવ nྫʣʮϓʔϧʹ͓͚ΔనࢮऀʯͱʮχίϥεɾέΠδͷөը ग़ԋʯʹਖ਼ͷ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͨ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
σʔλ׆༻ʹ͓͚Δ Α͋͘Δצҧ͍ ఆੑσʔλʹཱͨͳ͍ ˠఆྔσʔλͱఆੑσʔλ͏·͍͚͘Δ ૬͕ؔ͋ΕඞͣҼՌ͕ؔ͋Δ ˠ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍߹͕͋Δ ΤϏσϯεΛٻΊΒΕͨ࣌ɺ
σʔλΛࣔͤ0,ʂ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλ׆༻ʹ͓͚Δ Α͋͘Δצҧ͍ ఆੑσʔλʹཱͨͳ͍ ˠఆྔσʔλͱఆੑσʔλ͏·͍͚͘Δ ૬͕ؔ͋ΕඞͣҼՌ͕ؔ͋Δ ˠ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍߹͕͋Δ ΤϏσϯεΛٻΊΒΕͨ࣌ɺ
σʔλΛࣔͤ0,ʂ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
#FGPSF"GUFSσʔλ͚ͩͰ ҼՌؔΛಛఆ͢Δͷࠔ n࣮ݧࣨͳΒӨڹΛٴ΅͢Մೳੑͷ͋ΔཁૉΛഉআ͢ΔΑ͏ʹ ݅ΛίϯτϩʔϧͰ͖Δ n͔࣮ࣾ͠͠ձͰಛఆͷཁૉΛഉআ͢Δ͜ͱࠔ nେྔͷσʔλߴͳ౷ܭϞσϧ͕͋ͬͨΒղܾՄೳʁ ˠ͍͠ͱݴΘΕ͍ͯΔ n͕ͨͬͯ͠#FGPSF"GUFSͷσʔλ͚ͩͰɺࢪࡦʹΑͬͯ՝ ͕վળ͞Ε͔͔ͨΒͳ͍ʢଞͷཁҼͷՄೳੑΛഉআͰ͖ͳ͍ʣ ࢪࡦ࣮ࢪલ
ࢪࡦ࣮ࢪޙ ࢪࡦͷ ࣮ࢪ ՝ͷ վળ ʁ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧ 3BOEPNJ[FE $POUSPMMFE 5SJBM3$5 nରΛϥϯμϜʹάϧʔϓ͚ͯ͠ࢦඪΛܭଌ͠ൺֱ ࢪࡦΛ࣮ࢪ͢Δάϧʔϓʢॲஔ܈ʣ ࢪࡦΛ࣮ࢪ͠ͳ͍άϧʔϓʢରর܈ʣ nϥϯμϜɾάϧʔϐϯάʹΑͬͯଞͷཁҼʹΑΔӨڹΛഉআ
ର ॲஔ܈ ରর܈ ࢦඪΛܭଌ ࢦඪΛܭଌ ࢪࡦޮՌ ࠩΛൺֱ ϥϯμϜʢແ࡞ҝʣ ʹάϧʔϐϯά 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧʹ ඞཁͳཁૉ ΤϯυϙΠϯτ ࢪࡦͷޮՌΛܭΔͨΊͷ٬؍తͳई ൺֱରর ࢪࡦΛ࣮ࢪ͢Δ܈ʢॲஔ܈ʣʹର͠ɺࢪࡦΛ࣮ࢪ͠ͳ͍܈ʢରর܈ʣ ϥϯμϜԽ
࣮ࢪͨ͠ࢪࡦҎ֎ͷ݅ʹภΓΛੜͤ͡͞ͳ͍Α͏ʹɺ ॲஔ܈ͱରর܈ͷϥϯμϜͳৼΓ͚Λߦ͏ ݕԽ ܭଌ͢Δਓʹɺॲஔ܈ͱରর܈͕ͲͪΒͰ͋Δ͔͔Βͳ͍Α͏ʹ ͢Δʢܭଌʹओ؍͕ೖΒͳ͍Α͏ʹ͢ΔͨΊʣ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ΤϏσϯεͷڧ͞ͷ֊ nʮΤϏσϯεʹجͮ͘ҩྍ &WJEFODF#BTFE .FEJDJOF ʯʹ Λൃͨ͠ΤϏσϯεͷ֊ Ϩϕϧ ͕ࣾձՊֶʹԠ༻͞Ε͍ͯΔ nϨϕϧ্͕͕Δ΄ͲΑΓਖ਼֬ʹҼՌؔΛਪఆͰ͖Δͱݟͳ͞ΕΔ ग़యɿਖ਼๎ɺ୩تҰʢʣʮΤϏσϯεʹجͮ͘ҩྍʢ&.#ͷܥේͱํੑɿอ݈
ҩྍධՁʹՌͨ͢ίΫϥϯڞಉܭըͷׂͱະདྷʣʯʰຊධՁݚڀ ୈרୈ߸ʱQQ 4 b a 1b 1a ෳͷϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧͷϝλɾΞφϦγε গͳ͘ͱ̍ͭͷϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧ গͳ͘ͱ̍ͭͷඇϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧ গͳ͘ͱ̍ͭͷ४࣮ݧతݚڀ ඇ࣮ݧతݚڀɺهड़తݚڀ ઐՈͷใࠂҙݟɺݖҖऀͷܦݧ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ࣄྫɿਆಸݝ༿ࢁொͷ ์ஔ͝ΈݮࢪࡦͷޮՌݕূ n༿ࢁொʹຊͰ൪ʹʮθϩɾΣΠετʯࡦʢ͝Έͷపఈతͳ ࢿݯԽɾݮྔԽʣͷಋೖΛද໌ nࢿݯ͝ΈͷऩूڌͰ͋ΔࢿݯεςʔγϣϯͷཧɺθϩɾΣΠετͷ ୡʹ͚ͨॏཁࢪࡦ nࢿݯεςʔγϣϯͰͷ์ஔ͝Έ͕ݮΒͳ͍͜ͱʹொɾॅຽ͕಄Λ·͍ͤͯͨ ˠࢪࡦ࣮ݧΛ࣮ࢪ ϞχλϦϯάର εςʔγϣϯ
ରࡦɿνϥγ ରࡦɿ൘ܝࡌ ରࡦͳ͠ ࣄલϞχλϦϯά ʹج͖ͮϥϯμϜ ʹάϧʔϓԽ ࠩແ͔ͬͨ ʢޮՌͳ͠ʣ ଟ͘ ݮͰ͖ͨ ʢݮޮՌ͋Γʣ ϞχλϦϯά Λ࣮ࢪ͠ɺ ݁ՌΛൺֱ ग़యɿࡦͷޮՌΛͲ͏ଌఆ͢Δ͔ʁɿւ֎ʹ͓͚ΔʮΤϏσϯεʹجͮ͘ࡦʯͷ࠷৽ಈ IUUQTXXXSJFUJHPKQKQFWFOUTCCMIUNM શொల։ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
࠷ऴతʹධՁʹඞཁͱͳΔσʔλΛ ֤ϓϩηεʹ͓͍ͯऔಘ ࢪࡦཱҊ ࢪࡦ࣮ࢪ ࢪࡦධՁ ՝ઃఆ ݱঢ়ͷ՝ΛѲ ͢Δ ࢪࡦ࣮ࢪʹΑΔ ඪΛઃఆ͠
ܭըΛཱͯΔ ͳ͘ࢪࡦΛ ࣮ࢪͰ͖͍ͯΔ͔ ֬ೝ͢Δ ࢪࡦΛ࣮ࢪͨ͠ ͜ͱʹΑΔޮՌ ӨڹΛධՁ͢Δ • ֤ࢿݯεςʔ γϣϯͷ์ஔ ΰϛൃੜ ʢࣄલϞχλ Ϧϯάʣ • ொձͰͷ ϞχλϦϯά ڠྗొσʔλ • ֤ࢿݯεςʔ γϣϯͷ์ஔ ΰϛൃੜ ʢఆ؍ଌʣ • ࢪࡦผͷ์ஔ ΰϛൃੜ ൺֱσʔλ • ࢀՃऀͷ Ξϯέʔτ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
3$5͕࣮ࢪͰ͖ͳ͍߹ɺ࣭ͷߴ͍ ΤϏσϯεΛಘΔ͜ͱෆՄೳʁ n͑ʮ/Pʯ nϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧ 3$5 Λߦͳͬͨͷͱಉ༷ͷ ঢ়گͷσʔλ͕ೖखͰ͖ΕՄೳ nطଘͷߦσʔλ͕͑Δ߹͕͋Δ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB
-JOL%BUB
ྫʣΧϦϑΥϧχΞभʹ͓͚Δ ిྗফඅྔͷੳ ग़యɿࡦͷޮՌΛͲ͏ଌఆ͢Δ͔ʁɿւ֎ʹ͓͚ΔʮΤϏσϯεʹجͮ͘ࡦʯͷ࠷৽ಈ IUUQTXXXSJFUJHPKQKQFWFOUTCCMIUNM nੳͷతɿ ʮిྗͷྉۚΛ্͛Δͱɺফඅऀ͕Ͳͷ͘Β͍ͷྔΛઅి͢Δͷ͔ Γ͍ͨ ʯ nੳ࣮ࢪऀɿγΧΰେֶެڞࡦେֶӃ ҏ౻ެҰ࿕ࢯ
nڠྗػؔɿ $B*JGPSOJB &OFSHZ $PNNJTTJPO 4$& 4%(& ిྗձࣾ nར༻σʔλɿੈଳ͝ͱͷ݄ؒిྗফඅσʔλ pΧϦϑΥϧχΞभͷ͋ΔࢢͰೆͰ ిྗձ͕ࣾҟͳΔ p྆ํͷిྗձࣾͷిྗྉ͕ۚಉ༷ʹ มԽ͍ͯͨ࣌͠ظͱɺೆ෦͚ͩ ిྗྉ্͕͕ۚͬͨ࣌ظ͕͋Δ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
ྫʣΧϦϑΥϧχΞभʹ͓͚Δ ిྗফඅྔͷੳ ྆ํͷిྗձࣾͷిྗྉ͕ۚಉ༷ʹมԽ͍ͯͨ࣌͠ظͱൺֱ͢Δͱɺ ೆ෦Ͱిྗྉ্͕͕ۚͬͨ࣌ظͷిྗফඅྔݮগ͍ͯͨ͠ ˠిྗྉ্͕͕ۚΔͱফඅऀઅి͢Δ ྆ҬͰྉ͕ۚಉ༷ͩͬͨ࣌ظ ೆ෦͚ͩྉ্͕͕ۚͬͨ࣌ظ ෦ ೆ෦ ෦
ೆ෦ KoichiroIto, AmericanEconomicReview2014, 104(2): 537–563 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.2.537 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
σʔλ׆༻ʹ͓͚Δ Α͋͘Δצҧ͍ ఆੑσʔλʹཱͨͳ͍ ˠఆྔσʔλͱఆੑσʔλ͏·͍͚͘Δ ૬͕ؔ͋ΕඞͣҼՌ͕ؔ͋Δ ˠ૬͕ؔ͋ͬͯҼՌ͕ؔͳ͍߹͕͋Δ ΤϏσϯεΛٻΊΒΕͨ࣌ɺ
σʔλΛࣔͤ0,ʂ ˠΤϏσϯεʹ࣭ͷϨϕϧ͕ଘࡏ͢ΔͨΊɺ ͨͩσʔλΛ͚ࣔͩ͢ͰՊֶతࠜڌͱͯ͠ऑ͍߹͕ ͋Δ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB -JOL%BUB
Ұൠࣾஂ๏ਓϦϯΫσʔλ දཧࣄ Լࢁ ࣿࢠ Email:
[email protected]
ຊࢿྉʹؔ͢Δ࣭͝ɾ͝ҙݟɺ σʔλ׆༻ʹؔ͢Δ͝૬ஊͪ͜Β͓د͍ͤͩ͘͞ɻ 4BZPLP4IJNPZBNB
-JOL%BUB