Eddie Tofpik's Technical Analysis Presentation at the SAF Forum - Madridn - October 2026

Eddie Tofpik's Technical Analysis of 1st Generation Biofuel Feedstocks held at the SAF Forum, part of Informa's World Ethanol & Biofuels Conference, in Madrid - Spain - October 2026. I covered Sugar, Rapeseed, Corn & Crude Oil.

Transcript

1. 6th October 2026 Eddie Tofpik MSTA, ACI-UK Member Head of Technical Analysis & Senior Markets Analyst Technical Analysis of 1st Generation Feedstocks
2. Before we start… properly…
3. A Message from my Head of Compliance Mr. Philip Llewellyn
4. A Message from my Head of Compliance Mr. Philip Llewellyn “Please kindly let everyone know…that what you are about to present are your own personal thoughts and views… …and not those of ADM, Archer Daniels Midland, Wild Flavors, Probiotics, Neovia or ANY other part of the ADM Group…”
5. A Message from my Head of Compliance Mr. Philip Llewellyn “Please kindly let everyone know…that what you are about to present are your own personal thoughts and views… …and not those of ADM, Archer Daniels Midland, Wild Flavors, Probiotics, Neovia or ANY other part of the ADM Group…” “…now get on with it…”
6. So…would YOU like to see something… …scary?
7. Let me show you something… …that might scare you…
8. This is MY Daily Chart for… New York Sugar Futures (Front Month Continuous)
9. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
10. A bit scary isn’t…let me explain it to you… Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
11. The Core Pattern is the 3 Dark Blue Lines that make up a Bullish Andrews Pitchfork. This has been until last week…the driving Bullish incentive in this market. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
12. Over late August – mid September we had a combination of an Ascending Wedge Pattern & a Double Top Pattern…both Bearish. However, the market only reached the Primary Target for the Ascending Wedge Pattern…. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
13. ……and none of the Targets for the Double Top Pattern. The April 2017 high at 17.16 halted the market’s fall (as it did in late August)…and with Changeover, prices have started higher, Gapping significantly higher! Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
14. We are through some important 50% Fibs at 18.09 & 18.59…and now approaching another at 20.00…BUT…there is some historical Resistance overhead between 20.10 – 21.00…which may erode the Bullish incentive. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
15. We are through some important 50% Fibs at 18.09 & 18.59…and now approaching another at 20.00…BUT…there is some historical Resistance overhead between 20.10 – 21.00…which may erode the Bullish incentive. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
16. Yet there’s an even bigger potential Bullish Pattern in the making…a Bullish Halfway Hesitation, originating at the end of July! If this comes about, Primary Target = 19.80 area (already reached) & Secondary Target = 21.60 Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
17. Next…a Daily Chart of Chicago Corn Futures (2nd Month Continuous)
18. Since late June, the Patterns have been 1) Vertical Run Up, 2) Bear Channel, 3) Further Vertical Run Up with 1) 2) & 3) making 4) a Bullish Halfway Hesitation that peaked in Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!) September with 5) a Double Top.
19. Targets for the Double Top are 508 ¼ (Primary) & 488 ½ (Secondary). However, that is not all. There are residual effects from the last Vertical Run Up Pattern (watch 507 ½)…plus… Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!) effect of the Green Short/Medium MA (509).
20. Next…a Daily Chart of Paris Rapeseed Futures (2nd Month Continuous)
21. 2 main Patterns driving prices here. 1) Dark Blue Bullish breached…but seemingly repaired late April – mid June Bullish Schiff Pitchfork (between Middle Tine overhead [565.00] & Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!) Lower Tine below [545 ½]) …
22. …and newer & shallower Bright Red mid June – start August Bullish Schiff Pitchfork with Prices in between overhead Upper Tine (572 ¾) & Middle Tine below (542 ½). Note also the Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!) effect of the Green Short/Medium MA.
23. I have a concern, that the market may be forming a Rounded Top formation…but it is still early yet (this would be a Bearish Pattern). Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
24. Finally…a scary Chart…followed by a simplified version… To give some context on SAF Prices… ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front Month Continuous)
25. 1st…the Scary Chart! This is my Daily Chart on Brent Crude Oil…it is NOT the one I send to Clients! Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
26. There is still a lot going on here…but I will point out some key points. 1) There’s only Bullish Patterns on this Daily Chart except…2) Weekly Key Reversal Down Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!) last week & the ‘possible’ Double Top.
27. We still have ‘live’ a possible target for the mid May – late July Descending Scallop Pattern up in the 124.14 area. It has not been discarded as yet… Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
28. Though this was not a TA Classroom…I would like to let you know where you could find more information about…Technical Analysis… If you like what you saw and would like to know more… …then please look HERE…or contact me… …you may wish to use your camera phones… WWW.TECHNICALANALYSTS.COM
29. These are my FREE Daily & Weekly Videos where you can find further Daily & Weekly Technical Analysis of markets.
30. These are my FREE Longer Term (Annual) Videos where you can find further Technical Analysis of markets.
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32. 32 The three companies below are known as The ADM Investor Services Companies. Together, they provide comprehensive futures brokerage services to clients around the world. ADM Investor Services, Inc. (ADMIS) ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) ADMIS Singapore Pte. Limited United States London Singapore ADMIS leads the United States operations from its headquarters in Chicago and offices in New York and Houston. ADMISI, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ADM UK Limited, leads our UK and European business. The Asian branch of the group leads ADM Investor Services’ presence throughout the APAC region. www.admis.com www.admisi.com www.admis.com/sg Additionally, ADM Investor Services Companies’ reach is extended by ADMIS BV in the Netherlands, the Archer Financial Services, ADMIS Hong Kong and ADMIS Taiwan business units. Proprietary business information of ADM. The ADM Investor Services Companies
33. 33 Proprietary business information of ADM. Our History… ADMIS starts New York branch office, acquires NY memberships Tabor Grain becomes CBOT Clearing Member Tabor Grain Commodities becomes ADM Investor Services, Inc. (ADMIS) 1966 1975 1986 1990 Benson-Quinn consolidates FCM into ADMIS ADMIS IB relationships grow substantially via industry consolidation ADMIS opens Taiwan affiliate 1993 1998 2002 ADM Investor Services International (ADMISI) is established in London via acquisition. 2003 ADMISI acquires MSL ADMIS acquires Iowa Grain Company Archer Financial Services (AFS) is incorporated ADMIS triples size due to industry consolidation ADM acquires Tabor Grain and creates subsidiary Tabor Grain Commodities ADMIS Hong Kong Limited is established via acquisition 2005 2006 2008 2011 2014 ADMIS establishes ADMIS Singapore ADMIS incorporates Forex subsidiary, ADMIS Global FX 2015 ADMIS celebrates 50 years! 2016 ADMIS adds sales groups in NY and Chicago via Jeffries’ departure from the futures space 2023 Over $10.7 billion in customer assets and growing
34. I am mindful that time is short…so…
35. …here’s the FINAL bit….
36. …here’s the FINAL bit…….errr... This Publication is issued by ADM Investor Services International Limited (‘ADMISI’) which is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of The London Stock Exchange. References to ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ in this Publication shall mean ADMISI unless otherwise stated. This Publication was prepared and distributed by us for information purposes only. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. The information and opinions contained within this Publication were considered by us to be valid when published. This Publication may also contain information that has been provided to us by third parties. The source of such information may be disclosed within this Publication where relevant. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. Any person placing reliance upon this Publication to undertake trading, does so entirely at their own risk, and accordingly, we do not accept any liability as a result, whether direct or indirectly incurred. Derivatives and securities markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements, and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Currency movements may also have an unfavourable, as well as favourable effect on the value of the underlying investment and/or assets. Investments and/or strategies discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors. Accordingly, if any person reading this Publication has doubts about their particular suitability, they should consult an independent investment adviser.
37. …here REALLY is the final bit…
38. Eddie’s Crayons... Daily, Weekly & Annual Technical Analysis Commentaries on FX, Commodities & other markets… +442077168201 & +31320788380 eddie.tofpik@admisi.com @EddieTofpik
39. THANK YOU …and I am open for any questions…