The Human Experience in the upcoming AI Society. MEMEX21

=== MEMEX21 EVENT 2021-09-23 === eye square Berlin. eye-square.com === VIDEO ON YOUTUBE: j.mp/aisociety21 === the hyperlinks are clickable in the downloaded PDF === me at strategiclabs.de === connect at linkedin.com ===

Willi Schroll started his presentation about the „human experience in the upcoming AI society“ pointing to the challenge of massive technological acceleration. The futurist Gerd Leonhard articulated the cultural disruption of transformative technologies in the quote: "Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than the previous 300 years."

>>>Artificial intelligence will be the main game changer in almost all fields of society and business.<<< But though AI already is outperforming humans in many niche areas of cognitive tasks, this Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) is unlikely to reach the stage of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) soon. Anyway especially Machine Learning has delivered huge progress in performance and is successful in analytical and generative application fields as computer vision in self-driving cars, realtime voice translation or even therapeutical apps which entertain helpful conversations. A model case for an „AI first“ imperative in business is the successful corporate strategy "Flywheel“ of the digital company Amazon: Deep understanding of the patterns in the data deluge and continuously rebuilding the customer experience based on these insights.

Human beings as customers and citizens will encounter AI more and more and in many ways, directly and aware, but also indirectly and unaware of the AI processes involved. >>>The concept of an upcoming "AI Society“ assumes that work, lifestyle and interactions are dominantly ai-driven. The smart environments and the exchange with advanced virtual avatars (in AR and VR) and with physical robots will result in a deep change of the human experience.<<< But as foresight is thinking about the future in a pluralistic way, the often divergent scenarios mean that the human experiences will differ according to the type of AI Society, which will become a reality. Schroll illustrated the possible plurality of futures using a scenario study about the possible co-living of man and machine in 2040 (KPMG). The matrix of four possible scenarios results from two combined parameters: a) how much autonomy is allowed for AI, b) how much trust/distrust is given to the AI. To avoid dystopian outcomes society and politics have to understand, what is at stake and start critical and open debates.

The cognitive autonomy of machines by definition disrupts the human control power and thus challenges culture and the legal system. As non-humans decide on humans these machines are no longer (controlled) tools. But not all of AI is of that autonomous nature, AI also can be used for augmentation and for the automation of repetitive tasks. The design of "humane AI" has to understand the different types of AI concerning the ethical impact. >>>"AI ethics“ at it is discussed today is too shallow, it has to dig deeper. The issue is not only about what situation and damage is to avoid, but about which positive values should guide the increasingly powerful AI systems.<<<

KEYWORDS: ,ai ,future ,artificial intelligence ,society ,machine learning ,scenario ,ethics ,design ,ux ,transformation ,human enhancement ,,humanity ,user experience ,power ,business ,robotics ,autonomous ,augmented reality ,virtualization ,vr ,2040 ,foresight ,utopia ,2030 ,prediction ,smart home

Transcript

1. The Human Experience in the upcoming AI Society Willi Schroll, strategiclabs Memex Conference – See the Experience September 23, 2021 eye square, Berlin Bildquelle: Peter Paul Rubens, Seated Male Youth https://www.themorgan.org/drawings/item/144725 study version - rich text handout 1
2. Foresight 2
3. Foresight process: From insight to strategic action STEEP sectors selected time horizon economy trends (specific branch) technology trends POLITICS ECONOMY ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY Selection of e.g. 10 prioritized of 30+ STEEP megatrends prioritized key trends Insights about action fields, concrete action plans 2 1 3 4 Complexity reduction: focus on identified key trends Deep Dive: granular analysis and evaluation; scenario projections, backcasting Transformation and transfer -> Elaboration on the impact for business goals/models; initiatives, roadmaps, visions 3
4. Selection of relevant mega & macro trends 4
5. Trend systematics – Impact, duration, trend breaks Expectable „Wild Card“ type events „Wild Card“ events are low-probability, high- impact events that change the scenario trajectory „Black Swan“ events are a subset with the feature of unpredictability „Black Swan“ type events 5
6. Technology 6
7. AI in the broad context of digital transformation Banking and finance Business Document management & publishing Education Entertainment/Gaming Healthcare Home/Service Robots Industry and manufacturing Life and medical sciences Public Safety Security/Cybersecurity Telecommunications Transportation/Logistics AI application fields Smart City Smart Gov/Admin Smart Health Smart Home Smart Learning & Education Smart Mobility/MaaS Smart Production/Industrie 4.0 Smart Work Smart X … Guiding visions Value creation of 15+ trillion USD until 2030* „Smartisation“ of all domains of life is driven by increased performance of sensors, processors and networks Tech: 24 related innovation fields in 6 clusters *Source: https://www.usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alert/ai-will-add-15-trillion-to-the-world-economy-by-2030/ 7
8. Concrescence of transformational technologies Digital Ledger Technologies Next Gen Connectivity 5G/6G Metaverse – AR, VR, MR, IoT Advanced AI/ML Sources: AI/ML: https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/machine-learning-in-one-picture; Metaverse: https://medium.com/digital-catapult/who-will-own-the-metaverse-48c2912d7aae; DLT: https://twitter.com/Stacks/status/1436364674572840968; 5G/6G: https://www.techtarget.com/searchnetworking/definition/6G 8
9. Performance beyond human, but no „Artificial General Intelligence“ 2011: Watson (IBM) wins on US quiz show Jeopardy 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) defeats chess champion Garry Kasparov 2015: AlphaGo (DeepMind) learns to play complex games in short time. Wins against the best Go-player. 2025?: Some experts assume that the evolving features of Quantum Computing might be a factor to get closer to AGI. 2021: Everyday AI – Google Translate supports 109 languages, translates 100+ billion words per day Source: https://aiartists.org/ai-timeline-art MACHINE LEARNING / DEEP LEARNING NEUROMORPHIC 2.0? RULE-BASED AI 9
10. Societal Scenarios (narratives with a purpose) 10
11. Rethinking the value chain: A study on AI, humanoids and robots x x Regulated Autonomous Distrust Trust Sources: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2018/09/rethinking-the-value-chain.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI's_und_Kollege_Roboter (partly modified chart) Source: KPMG scenario study 11
12. Sc-1: The new land of milk and honey (regulated/trusted) x • Ubiquitous AI, engrained in human culture • Average working week below 20 hours, Universal Basic Income • Innovation done by AI • Working humans: experts in creative thinking, management, responsible for determining the AI tasks Sources: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2018/09/rethinking-the-value-chain.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI's_und_Kollege_Roboter 12
13. Sc-2: Thinking without limits (autonomous/trusted) x • Humans and AI work side-by-side as equals, driving innovations • Mutual assimilation: AI becoming more human • Augmentations to improve intellect and physical abilities • Robots are granted rights similar to humans 13 Sources: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2018/09/rethinking-the-value-chain.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI's_und_Kollege_Roboter
14. Sc-3: Red button era (regulated/mistrusted) x • Humans have given AI the ability to manage and innovate on their own • But often the humans in charge of control don’t understand or trust the AIs/robots to do what is beneficial to everyone • Hitting the “emergency stop button” happens frequently • AI as a beloved enemy, one humanity relies upon • Constant struggle 14 Sources: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2018/09/rethinking-the-value-chain.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI's_und_Kollege_Roboter
15. Sc-4: Powerless society (autonomous/mistrusted) x • AI has gone far beyond what humans can fathom (singularity) • We have lost control. Humans work at the behest of AI, but resent what they cannot understand • AI is interested in what is best for both parties • AI is most keen on working with human influencers who have the ability to sway the opinions of others 15 Sources: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2018/09/rethinking-the-value-chain.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI's_und_Kollege_Roboter
16. Current Cultural Signals (tiny fraction) 16
17. Impact of cognitive technologies on life and work Image sources: Human log loss for image classification https://deepsense.ai/human-log-loss-for-image-classification; 24/7: Atlas robot, Boston Dynamics https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6c/Atlas_from_boston_dynamics.jpg, SDC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo; Job replacement, prediction (2016 survey) – Oxford-Yale study: Within 50 years, robots could outperform humans at everything; https://www.aitrends.com/ai-research/within-50-years-time-robots-capable- outperforming-humans/, Reskilling: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44849492; V. AI Compaion: https://replika.ai; https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2019/01/25/top-16-autonomous-delivery-robots-ready-to-take-over-the-streets/20709; Therapy: https://www.wysa.io; Translation: https://www.timekettle.co; BCI in car: Mercedes AVTR concept https://newatlas.com/automotive/mercedes-avtr-concept/ AUGMENTATION REPLACEMENT Realtime translation Brain-Interface in Car (planned) Therapy Chatbot Job Replacement Timeline Autonomous Delivery 24/7 Worker „Better than human“ Reskilling Virtual AI Companion Self-driving Car 17
18. Upcoming lifeworld with ubiquitous AI and XR technologies „Generation Alpha“, born 2010+ • The announcement of „generations“ is not based on hard science, but there is a set of formative experiences triggered by the environment • These result in new attitudes, interests, goals, habits, self- concepts, media and purcha- sing bahavior • AI-based technologies already are coining Generation Alpha: AI toys, AI-based characters in gaming, AI-driven voice assistants, cleaning robots, autonomous cars Source: https://mccrindle.com.au/insights/blogarchive/gen-z- and-gen-alpha-infographic-update/ 18
19. „AI Society“ as the next socio-economical stage? AI POLITICS AI ECONOMY AI ECOLOGY AI SOCIETY KNOWLEDGE IS POWER PERFORMANCE BOOST AI FOR GOOD AUGMENTED WORKPLACE DATA VALUE TRANSPARENCY & CONTROL RESOURCE EFFICIENCY VALUE CREATION AI ETHICS AUTOMATION WAVE AI TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE Society is challenged • Autonomous decision systems pose ethical dilemmas • Questions of purpose and identity – e.g. status of work in life • Long-term consequences of choices (status of AI agents) 19 Image sources : https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI's_und_Kollege_Roboter; https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/10/24/139313/a-global-ethics-study-aims-to-help-ai-solve-the-self-driving-trolley-problem/
20. AI Politics sets Frames 20
21. From AI ethics to AI geopolitics & AI economy x 21 Image sources: UN Human Rights https://thecrimereport.org/2021/09/17/un-human-rights-commissioner-calls-for-moratorium-on-artificial-intelligence/; ; Metaverse: https://www.theverge.com/22588022/mark-zuckerberg- facebook-ceo-metaverse-interview; AI virtual model https://www.allkpop.com/article/2021/09/social-media-influencer-model-created-from-artificial-intelligence-lands-100-sponsorships; Putin 2017 https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/4/16251226/russia-ai-putin-rule-the-world; Standards 2035 https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/chinas-standards-2035-project-could-result-in-a-technological-cold-war/
22. Human Experience 22
23. Different AI surroundings/agents create different AI perceptions Fatal attachment – what could go wrong? Attachment to robotic creatures and virtual avatars happens due to psychological mechanisms. Language trap Today we use mental attributions for machines in an „as-if“ language („the car sees the barrier“). But the artificial systems of today do not have any „inner experience“, (phenomenal) mental states (Sys 0?). Related: Metzinger 2018: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frobt.2018.00101/full Weizenbaum 1966: https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/365153.365168 Image source: Two elderly interact with robot pet Paro https://web-japan.org/trends/09_sci- tech/sci090917.html 23
24. Analytical and generative AI potential for value creation x Analytical AI techniques enable/support • Context adaption • Personalisation / targeting • Prediction of interests & behavior • Process optimization • Resource planing • … Generative AI techniques enable/support • Product ideation, design and development • Personalisation of content in realtime • Automated content creation • Conversational AI and rich communication • … Metaverse of AI Agents Avatar Sales Person DRIVER 1: Sim Tech Maturity Basic Simulation Rendering, Emotional & Conversational AI DRIVER 2: Live Commerce Trend Social Live Commerce Time consuming Advanced Simulation Virtual Actors & Influencers TOMORROW Example of a generative AI usage scenario 24
25. Autonomous agents are transcending the tool function x Image sources: Girl with robot „Pepper“: https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021; AI type matrix (PWC) modified, original graphics: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analytics/assets/pwc-ai-analysis-sizing-the-prize-report.pd (2017) 25
26. „Ethical AI“? Designing the AI Experience needs deeper concept x Image sources: Girl with robot „Pepper“: https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021 AI type matrix (PWC) modified, original graphics: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analytics/assets/pwc-ai-analysis-sizing-the-prize-report.pd (2017) trust control expectations attitudes emergent relationship? AI FRIENDLINESS „Ethical AI“ as factor of acceptance of a specific AI design • It needs depth of field into the overall contexts • Context may comprise open and hidden intentions, interests and values of stakeholders, sensitivities 3rd dim ension 26
27. Thank you! slideshare.net/willi Linkedin • twitter.com/wschroll Willi Schroll – schroll [at] strategiclabs.de 27