VoIP Has Just Begun

I gave this presentation as the keynote of the Occam Networks Users Conference, when VoIP had just started to make an impact on the rural telco community. Back then, most of the audience viewed VoIP as a niche internet thing that wouldn't impact their traditional landline voice business very much. My thesis was that VoIP had only just started its fifth and final wave of convergence that would have a significant impact on their businesses.

Transcript

1. VoIP Has Just Begun Andy Randall VP of Marketing, MetaSwitch O C C A M N E T W O R K S U S E R C O N F E R E N C E , S E P T E M B E R 7 – 1 1 , 2 0 0 8
2. Broadband & VoIP Subscriber Growth 0 50 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 DSL VoIP
3. Why Voice over IP? More Flexible More Efficient + + More Reliable
4. More Reliable Why Voice over IP? More Flexible More Efficient + OpEx Revenue, Loyalty
5. The First VoIP Wave: PC-to-PC
6. 1995: Microsoft introduces NetMeeting
7. 10 million Xbox Live subscribers Source: Microsoft, July 2008
8. The Second Wave: PC-to-PSTN
10. $1.9 billion lost to Skype Source: iLocus, March 4, 2008
11. 0.03% Proportion of Skype users who use it as their primary home phone Source: Yankee Group
12. The Third Wave: Over-the-Top
14. May 19, 2005: “we require providers of interconnected VoIP service to provide E911 services to all of their customers”
15. Vonage Net Subscriber Additions 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 2,000 Source: Vonage SEC filings
17. The Fourth Wave: Managed VoIP
19. 10 million Telco phone lines switched to cable VoIP since the last Occam user’s conference
20. 3.3 Million FTTH households Source: FTTH Council of North America, July 2008
21. The Next Battleground
23. Source: Heavy Reading, Cable vs. Telcos, July 2008 “We have a market opportunity that rivals the size of our core video business” - Bill Stemper President, Comcast Business
24. 4-year goals: • 20% market share • 1 million business customers • $3 billion revenue Source: Heavy Reading, Cable vs. Telcos, July 2008
25. 4-year goals: • 20% market share • 1 million business customers • $3 billion revenue 38% Growth last quarter Source: Comcast Q2 2008 Earnings Call
29. Wave 5: Convergence
30. Convergence Applications
31. Users value • Simplicity • Seamless connectivity
32. Convergence: Phone + Web
33. Web 2.0 APIs Enable Voice 2.0 Services
34. Web 2.0 APIs Enable Voice 2.0 Services
35. The Browser is Becoming a Powerful Application Environment
36. Convergence: Phone + TV Calling… Calling…
37. Convergence on the Phone Screen Voicemail Call Lists Contacts Conferencing Text messaging …
38. Convergence with Speech Recognition
39. Convergence Managed VoIP Over the top VoIP PC-to-PSTN PC-to-PC 1995 2010 Five Waves of VoIP Services
40. Source: TeleGeography, September 2007 VoIP Services Have Only Just Begun 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Europe U.S.
41. VoIP Switching Has Only Just Begun MetaSwitch Copper Com Taqua Lucent/ Telica Tekelec/ Santera Sonus Nortel CS2000 Cisco BTS Nortel CS1500 Siemens SURPASS 803 Source: LERG, March 2008
42. AXE EWSD GTD-5 DCO DMS-10 DMS 100/200 Nortel Remotes 5ESS All soft switches VoIP Switches Have Only Just Begun Source: LERG, March 2008
43. IMS-based Application Platforms Class 5 Replacement Class 5 Augmentation VoIP Gateways Class 4 Replacement / IP Tandem VoIP in the Carrier Network Core
44. What does this mean for my network? IP transport IP call control IP application server platform Voicemail FMC Web portal Video messaging
45. Conclusions: Like Broadband… VoIP is here to stay
46. Conclusions: Like Broadband… VoIP is here to stay VoIP services are evolving
47. Conclusions: Like Broadband… VoIP is here to stay VoIP services are evolving VoIP service delivery architectures will evolve
48. VoIP is here to stay VoIP services are evolving VoIP service delivery architectures will evolve VoIP has just begun Conclusions: Like Broadband…