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VoIP Has Just Begun

7a1af5a69aeacaba5042ee2f332fdaf6?s=47 Andy Randall
September 08, 2008

VoIP Has Just Begun

I gave this presentation as the keynote of the Occam Networks Users Conference, when VoIP had just started to make an impact on the rural telco community. Back then, most of the audience viewed VoIP as a niche internet thing that wouldn't impact their traditional landline voice business very much. My thesis was that VoIP had only just started its fifth and final wave of convergence that would have a significant impact on their businesses.

7a1af5a69aeacaba5042ee2f332fdaf6?s=128

Andy Randall

September 08, 2008
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  1. VoIP Has Just Begun Andy Randall VP of Marketing, MetaSwitch

    O C C A M N E T W O R K S U S E R C O N F E R E N C E , S E P T E M B E R 7 – 1 1 , 2 0 0 8
  2. Broadband & VoIP Subscriber Growth 0 50 02 03 04

    05 06 07 08 09 10 DSL VoIP
  3. Why Voice over IP? More Flexible More Efficient + +

    More Reliable
  4. More Reliable Why Voice over IP? More Flexible More Efficient

    + OpEx Revenue, Loyalty
  5. The First VoIP Wave: PC-to-PC

  6. 1995: Microsoft introduces NetMeeting

  7. 10 million Xbox Live subscribers Source: Microsoft, July 2008

  8. The Second Wave: PC-to-PSTN

  9. None
  10. $1.9 billion lost to Skype Source: iLocus, March 4, 2008

  11. 0.03% Proportion of Skype users who use it as their

    primary home phone Source: Yankee Group
  12. The Third Wave: Over-the-Top

  13. None
  14. May 19, 2005: “we require providers of interconnected VoIP service

    to provide E911 services to all of their customers”
  15. Vonage Net Subscriber Additions 0 50 100 150 200 250

    300 350 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 2,000 Source: Vonage SEC filings
  16. None
  17. The Fourth Wave: Managed VoIP

  18. None
  19. 10 million Telco phone lines switched to cable VoIP since

    the last Occam user’s conference
  20. 3.3 Million FTTH households Source: FTTH Council of North America,

    July 2008
  21. The Next Battleground

  22. None
  23. Source: Heavy Reading, Cable vs. Telcos, July 2008 “We have

    a market opportunity that rivals the size of our core video business” - Bill Stemper President, Comcast Business
  24. 4-year goals: • 20% market share • 1 million business

    customers • $3 billion revenue Source: Heavy Reading, Cable vs. Telcos, July 2008
  25. 4-year goals: • 20% market share • 1 million business

    customers • $3 billion revenue 38% Growth last quarter Source: Comcast Q2 2008 Earnings Call
  26. None
  27. None
  28. None
  29. Wave 5: Convergence

  30. Convergence Applications

  31. Users value • Simplicity • Seamless connectivity

  32. Convergence: Phone + Web

  33. Web 2.0 APIs Enable Voice 2.0 Services

  34. Web 2.0 APIs Enable Voice 2.0 Services

  35. The Browser is Becoming a Powerful Application Environment

  36. Convergence: Phone + TV Calling… Calling…

  37. Convergence on the Phone Screen Voicemail Call Lists Contacts Conferencing

    Text messaging …
  38. Convergence with Speech Recognition

  39. Convergence Managed VoIP Over the top VoIP PC-to-PSTN PC-to-PC 1995

    2010 Five Waves of VoIP Services
  40. Source: TeleGeography, September 2007 VoIP Services Have Only Just Begun

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Europe U.S.
  41. VoIP Switching Has Only Just Begun MetaSwitch Copper Com Taqua

    Lucent/ Telica Tekelec/ Santera Sonus Nortel CS2000 Cisco BTS Nortel CS1500 Siemens SURPASS 803 Source: LERG, March 2008
  42. AXE EWSD GTD-5 DCO DMS-10 DMS 100/200 Nortel Remotes 5ESS

    All soft switches VoIP Switches Have Only Just Begun Source: LERG, March 2008
  43. IMS-based Application Platforms Class 5 Replacement Class 5 Augmentation VoIP

    Gateways Class 4 Replacement / IP Tandem VoIP in the Carrier Network Core
  44. What does this mean for my network? IP transport IP

    call control IP application server platform Voicemail FMC Web portal Video messaging
  45. Conclusions: Like Broadband… VoIP is here to stay

  46. Conclusions: Like Broadband… VoIP is here to stay VoIP services

    are evolving
  47. Conclusions: Like Broadband… VoIP is here to stay VoIP services

    are evolving VoIP service delivery architectures will evolve
  48. VoIP is here to stay VoIP services are evolving VoIP

    service delivery architectures will evolve VoIP has just begun Conclusions: Like Broadband…