Carl Gibson – Managing Disruption: Making Better Decisions

Transcript

1. Managing Disruption & Making Better Decisions The neuropsychology of risk Dr Carl A. Gibson cgibson@skymesh.com.au 0422 005 456 excutiveimpact.com.au Better Boards 12 August 2018
2. Notice Copyright All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the Australian Copyright Act 1968 (for example fair dealing for the purpose of study, research, criticism or review). No part of this presentation may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the author. Limit of liability/ Disclaimer of warranty While the author has used their best efforts in preparing this presentation, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this presentation and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales material. The advice contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to direct, special, incidental, consequential or other damages.
3. Establishing a baseline Keep focus? Not distracted? Rational and analytical? High levels of situational awareness? Highly perceptive?
4. 200 investigations into significant disasters 20 years of research Critical incidents in Australia, NZ, China, India, PNG, Malaysia, USA, UK, France, Peru
5. Outline The way we work The way we think How we make decisions How we operate under routine and non routine – high ‘VUCA’ The individual The Leader – decisionmaker Team Culture
7. We live in a world of assumptions Seeing is believing I am usually right I have a rational mind Numbers are more important than ‘feelings’ I know my own mind This is reality My predictions are fairly accurate Follow the procedures and there will be no problems Shortcuts mean problems Logic is more important than intuition More data means less uncertainty Feedback improves capability Senior decision-makers need brief and sharp summaries What happens in the past informs the future
8. Which bear is the most dangerous?
9. Where does chocolate milk come from? 16.7 million Americans Innovation Center for US Dairy, 2017
10. ‘Work as imagined’ = ‘Work as done’ One of the biggest assumptions ≠ ≈
11. Routine conditions No inherently ‘perfect’ systems of work All systems of work drift towards failure Most routine procedures are error prone Constantly make decisions in ‘imperfect systems’ ------ usually OK But sometimes ……..!!!!
12. When things go wrong Human error was the cause Find why someone did something wrong Prevailing thinking:
13. A look into neuropsychology
14. The ‘average’ person Exposed to continuing stressors: Workload pressures Relationship pressures Time pressures Efficiency pressures Competitive pressures Cognitive demands Emotional demands
15. Evolutionary response Reduce cognitive & emotional demands Sensemaking shortcuts Thinking shortcuts Decision-making shortcuts Behavioural shortcuts Heuristics & biases Pattern recognition Intuition Normalisation of deviance Conscious & unconscious processing ∼ ∼
16. Normalisation of deviance
17. Reward response Individual behaviour Fear response Exposure behaviour New neuronal connections Harmful stimulus Group behaviour Repeated Stimulus Neural networks Habitual ‘normalized’ behaviour Avoidance behaviour Beneficial stimulus
18. Coates 2012 Data processing Retina to brain – 11,000,000 bits/second Other senses – 1,000,000 bits/second Into consciousness – 40 bits/second
19. Into the brain
20. Making a brain
21. Thinking approaches Prefrontal cortex Control of cognitive/ analytical thinking Amygdala Control of intuitive/ emotional thinking
22. Automatic/ intuitive Analytical/ reflective effortless reactive rapid no sense of voluntary control attention slow demanding conscious reasoning self emotional logical
23. Red Brown Orange Black Green Blue Orange Black Green Blue Red Green Blue Blue Brown
24. Yellow Red
25. Red Red Orange Black Green Blue Orange Black Green Blue Red Green Blue Blue Brown
26. cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch sutdy at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh? yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt!
27. Forms the basis of expertise Intuition Gut Brain areas Beginner Expert Rules Intuition Pattern recognition
28. Working memory
29. IR SBB CFB IUS AC NN Working memory
30. IR SBB CFB IUS AC NN IRS BBC FBI USA CNN Working memory
31. Focus and Attention
32. Fatigue and the brain
33. Parole judges in Israel Approved immediately before a meal Average 35% approved over a day Approved after each meal 65% 0% Danziger et al 2011
34. Neuropsychology of teams
35. Hormonal teams Actions that build Self worth Psychological safety Certainty Increase oxytocin Actions that degrade Self worth Psychological safety Certainty Decrease oxytocin Increase serotonin Decrease serotonin ↑ Cooperation ↑ Complex problem solving ↑ Critical thinking ↓ Cooperation ↓ Complex problem solving ↓ Critical thinking Increase cortisol
36. High Performance Team Self worth Certainty Psychological safety Inclusion Connectivity Social sensitivity Trust Emotional expression Cohesiveness Autonomy & Control Status Recognition & Fairness Learning Performance feedback Purpose Future horizons Goals Roles Shared sensemaking Team norms Confidence
37. Culture Deep beliefs & assumptions Values Visible artefacts
38. Artefacts Values Underlying deep assumptions Visible Detectable Requires deep investigation © Executive Impact Consulting Pty Ltd Risk culture
39. Behaviours & actions
40. Behaviours & actions Espoused values & goals
41. Behaviours & actions Espoused values & goals Underlying assumptions
42. Problems to address We tend towards the deviant Neuro-awareness development Many of our organisational arrangements reduce trust Individual & team oxytocin building Decision-making is not VUCA capable Sensemaking & neurocompetencies We tend to over-rely on untested assumptions Red teaming techniques
43. Knowledge Other attributes Abilities Skills Cognitive reflection Experiential openness Continuous learning attitude Frustration coping Personal drive Critical reasoning Ingenuity Creativity Sensemaking General problem solving Context specific problem solving Flexibility Multidisciplinary available knowledge Context specific available knowledge Relationship mapping Decision-making in a vacuum Anticipative capability Technical domain skills Communication Board and C-suite development Neuro-awareness