Testing Hypotheses of No Meaningful Effect

Transcript

1. Testing Hypotheses of No Meaningful Effect Carlisle Rainey

2. I'd like to convince you of three things

3. Important 1

4. Our arguments are not compelling 2

5. Our arguments can be compelling 3

6. Important Step 1:

7. Hypotheses of no meaningful effect are crucial to complete evaluation

   of theories

8. Interaction

9. Social heterogeneity increases the number of parties, but only when

   electoral institutions are sufficiently permissive. “ ” Clark and Golder (2006)

10. Adjudication

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13. How often do these examples occur?

14. 30%

15. Our arguments are not compelling Step 2:

16. No American president since FDR has won a second term

    when the unemployment rate topped 7.2 percent... Obama must defy that trend to keep his job. “ ” New York Times June 1, 2011 “ ”
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19. The nation's unemployment status by itself is not going to

    affect Obama's. “ ” Seth Masket June 2, 2011

20. My critique

21. Rule out implausible relationships

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28. Insignificance can't be used to argue for “no effect.”

29. But doesn't everyone already know that? “ ” A skeptic

30. Political scientists draw strong conclusions from insignificance.

31. Recessions have no effect on whether a democracy is consolidated.

    “ ” Svolik (2008)

32. Our arguments can be compelling Step 3:

33. just like any other hypothesis

34. Argue against relationships inconsistent with the hypothesis

35. Define substantively meaningful Step 1:

36. Check the 90% CI Step 2:

37. Only negativity about the respondent’s preferred candidate should have a

    significant demobilizing effect on voter turnout. “ ” Krupnikov (2011)

38. What's a meaningful effect? 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%

39. The demobilizing effect could be as large as 9%

40. Those are the three things

41. Important 1

42. Our arguments are not compelling 2

43. Our arguments can be compelling 3

44. But what should I do about this? “ ” You

45. Go read the details crain.co/nme 1

46. Think about your own work. 2

47. Keep in mind when reviewing others' work 3

48. None