Seeing the light: The effects of LED light bulb installation on electricity demand in UK households: results of a large n randomised control trial

7bbeac78b5e6700946b5b6fd8aa1a58a?s=47 Ben Anderson
November 23, 2018

Seeing the light: The effects of LED light bulb installation on electricity demand in UK households: results of a large n randomised control trial

Paper presented at the 12th OERC Energy & Climate Change Symposium 2018
22 & 23 November Hutton Theatre, Otago Museum, Dunedin

7bbeac78b5e6700946b5b6fd8aa1a58a?s=128

Ben Anderson

November 23, 2018
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Transcript

  1. Seeing the light The effects of LED light bulb installation

    on electricity demand in UK households: results of a large n randomised control trial Tom Rushby, Ben Anderson (@dataknut), Patrick James, AbuBakr Bahaj
  2. The menu l The problem − Peak electricity demand l

    The solution − Reducing & shifting demand l Seeing the light − Large n LED light bulb trial l Did it work? l What do we need to do next?
  3. Despite this... l The peak is still − Peaky −

    Expensive − Dirty Source: Staffell (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.037 UK electricity decarbonisation 2009 - 2015 l Solutions − Reduce it − Shift it UK electricity generation 2009 vs 2015
  4. The menu l The problem − Peak electricity demand l

    The solution − Reducing & shifting demand l Seeing the light − Large n LED light bulb trial l Did it work? l What do we need to do next?
  5. Study Design l South East England − Stratified random sample

    − N ~= 4000 households − Randomly allocated to 4 trial groups − http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/save-data-sources/ Monitoring Data cloud Analysts Statistical power analysis LED trial is one of these • W every 10s • Wh every 15 min
  6. Implementation Data: Winter 2017-2018

  7. Where were they put?

  8. Theoretical ‘saving’ l Maximum theoretical total installed saving = 155

    kW across group l Actual total installed = 124 kW Mean: 176W per household
  9. What happened? • Mean Wh • 16:00 – 20:00 only

  10. What happened? • Consumption as % of control • 16:00

    – 20:00 only • • Demonstrates need for difference in difference model
  11. What happened? l Winter: w/c 29 Jan 2018 l Differences

    visible
  12. But... • 16:00 – 20:00 • Difference in Difference Model

    • Huge inter-household variation • Lack of precision
  13. Interactions... Household size Retired Children present Difference-in-difference regression interacting attributes

    with treatment Rented Unemployed
  14. Was it worth it? • ‘Biggest’ week (mid-winter): • Median

    -23W (-33W in peak) per household • Median -3.9 kWh per household per week • ~£0.70 p/w! • Complex payback period calculations • Seasonal effect in load reduction • Install ££ • Network load avoidance • Customer savings l Thank you! l http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/save/ l @dataknut l b.anderson@soton.ac.uk / ben.anderson@otago.ac.nz Work in Progress :-) 176W installed