GOOD Kick the Can Down the Road BASELINE A Sovereign Debt Reckoning S&P 500 8,850 15% S&P 500 8,450 10% S&P 500 6,500 BAD - 15% Gold $4,525 5% Gold $4,725 10% Gold $4,525 5% 10- Year Treasury Yield 4.75% - 50 bps 10- Year Treasury Yield 5.00% - 25 bps 10- Year Treasury Yield 5.75% +50 bps Governments avoid a crisis by growing GDP fast enough to re - balance debt ratios and lower financing costs; Tech driven productivity gains fuel growth. Governments quietly inflate the debt away and continue to run large deficits; catastrophic economic collapse is avoided. Investors lose confidence that governments can keep borrowing without consequence; Sovereign bond yields surge, reflecting sharply higher credit risk and igniting second order consequences.
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