Midterm Election

Transcript

1. Midterm Elections 2026 Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios Orion Risk Intelligence Team Sept 2026
2. Mid Term Election Scenarios Gridlock + Productivity Boom GOOD Washington Changes; Markets Don’t BASELINE Gridlock in DC Leads to Government Shutdown S&P 500 8,850 15% S&P 500 8,450 10% S&P 500 6,900 BAD - 10% S&P Small Cap 600 3,970 +20% 10- Year Treasury Yield 4.75% - 50 bps S&P Small Cap 600 3,800 +15% S&P Small Cap 600 2,910 - 12% 10- Year Treasury Yield 5.00% One chamber of Congress flips; Wall Street perceives little risk of major legislative change; Corporate earnings and productivity growth favor small caps One chamber of Congress flips; Rhythm of markets continues in line with expectations - 25 bps 10- Year Treasury Yield 5.75% +50 bps Gridlock in Washington leads to political dysfunction and another lengthy government shutdown, which comes at a time of historic US government debt, historically high debt interest expense and rising bond yields. -
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