Agile Estimation & Sizing

By: Ty Crockett

1. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Agile Estimation and Sizing
2. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Ty Crockett Started as an IT dude, now is an Agile dude Loves to work with teams, Digs Scrum Comic Book Fan, Convention Geek
3. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Why am I doing this? I am also an estimation victim….
4. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. THE PLAYERS
5. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc.
6. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. THE ASK
7. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. When can I have it? How much will it cost? What will I get? The Key 3
8. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. The Iron Triangle Fixed Estimated Resources Time Requirements Conventional Planning 8
9. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. THE RESPONSE
10. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Our 1st Reaction
11. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Fear of Commitment
12. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. How certain are we?
13. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. The Cone of Uncertainty 100% 200% 400% 50% 25% Time Actual Completion Realistic Projections Typical Projections
14. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Precision 3.1415926535897932384626 3.14 3
15. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Accuracy v. precision
16. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. THE AGILE
17. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Agile? 3.14 3 One of these guys is not…
18. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. 4 Agile Core Values http://agilemanifesto.org/
19. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Agile Planning
20. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. PLANNING
21. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Why do Planning? There is no Plan B There was no Plan A Because it is not ok to not have a plan
22. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Why do Planning? Ø If you do not have a plan Ø They… Ø Think you lack vision Ø Lose confidence Ø Will tell you the date
23. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Why do Planning? We should be able to forecast We should have a forecast Our forecasts should be defensible Based on historical performance It is an act of transparency It is something to measure progress against It is a great way to estimate a project’s cost
24. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Ø We can Identify Conflicts Why do Planning?
25. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Why do Planning? Our clients deserve to know when… Our “team” deserves to know when…
26. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. The Planning Onion Strategy Portfolio Product Roadmap Release Sprint Day Agile Project Planning Market Research
27. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Inverting the Iron Triangle Fixed Estimated Resources Time Features Requirements Resources Time Classic was Plan Driven Agile is Feature Driven 27
28. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. What type of Release? Feature Based Time Based VS
29. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. What type of Release? Ø Feature Based Ø Reaching a critical mass of business value Ø Delivering a themed feature set
30. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. What type of Release? Ø Time based Ø Contractual Dates Ø A cadenced release schedule
31. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Roadmap Planning Release Planning Sprint Planning Themes Epics Stories Tasks Daily Planning Finer Levels, Finer Detail 31
32. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Themes Epics Stories Tasks Finer Detail, Finer Estimates 32
33. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Lack of detail... What about when we lack all of the information?
34. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Lack of detail… Even with minimal information we still size. (It’s all relative of course) Our teams still have the option to resize as new information becomes apparent.
35. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. What do we need?
36. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Alternatives? Dude, what if I have no long term plan?
37. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Change Sometimes you have to reset your plan. By sometimes, I mean very often… Mom, I can’t call Tracy, I’m like… all out of minutes and stuff! Yes, I like… put limits on your plan. Buh-bye!
38. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ESTIMATION
39. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Our Scale
40. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Why Fibonacci?
41. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Planning Poker
42. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Affinity Estimation Smaller Larger 1 2 3 5 8 13 20 40 100
43. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. White Elephant Sizing Smaller Larger 1 2 3 5 8 13 20 40 100 USER STORY #1 This first one is a ___ in the world of stuff that we do.
44. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. White Elephant Sizing Smaller Larger 1 2 3 5 8 13 20 40 100 USER STORY #2 USER STORY #3 The team continues to put up stories under the size that they feel is appropriate When all the stories are up the team takes turn moving stories and having discussion on why When the group feels that enough progress has been made they have a sized backlog
45. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. FORECASTING THE FUTURE
46. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Velocity
47. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Yesterday’s Weather
48. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Release Burnup Chart 6.25 11 18 25.5 24 28 36 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Points Sprints Release Progress Cumulative Points Description Simple tool for Team to track progress during a Sprint. Key Characteristics "   Shows work remaining, not work completed "   Allows analysis of true Team capacity Managed by Team, ScrumMaster 48
49. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Scope Increase A Great Release Plan Burn Up
50. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Scope Increase Now What?!
51. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. Story Point Burn-up Story Points 51
52. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. When is when? 500 pt Product Backlog Two week Sprints 500 25 20 Sprints 2 weeks 40 wks. or 10 Mo.
53. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. How much is it going to cost me? $15,000 $600,000 40 wks.
54. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. By the way… http://www.forbes.com/sites/carolpinchefsky/2012/02/21/how-much-would-it-cost-to-build-the-death-star-from-star-wars/ The Death Star was pretty expensive. “$852,000,000,000,000,000. Or roughly 13,000 times the world’s GDP” …and that’s just the cost of steel production. …and we built it twice!
55. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc. References http://www.gettingagile.com/2008/07/04/affinity-estimating-a-how-to/ http://tastycupcakes.org/2009/09/sizing-game/ @ttcrockett tycrockett.com
56. ©2010 Improving Enterprises, Inc. ©2011 Improving Enterprises, Inc.