ADN Columbus 2013 - Agile Estimation

Transcript

1. Agile Estimation? I guess. Elevating the art of guesswork
2. When can I have it? How much will it cost? What will I get?
3. But They’re Really Asking Can we get this to market before … — The competition does? — Customers ask for something else? — I change my mind? — The market shifts?
4. They Need Options
5. Our 1st Reaction
6. Our 2nd Reaction
7. Fear of Commitment
8. How DO We Answer?
9. The Challenges
10. The Cone of Uncertainty 100% 200% 400% 50% 25% Time Actual Completion Realistic Projections Typical Projections
11. The “Confidence” Factor Earliest possible 200% Confident 50% Confident
12. Precision 3.1415926535897932 384626433832795 3.14 3
13. Precision vs Accuracy Precise, but … WOW, Both!! On average, accurate
14. Predicting the Future
15. Ever Moved Before?
16. How Many Boxes?
17. Whew, we’re done !!!
18. Or, are we?
19. Projects Can Be Much Like Moving
20. Agile
21. Agile Software Manifesto Fundamentally it is the application of continuous improvement and common sense to methodology www.agilealliance.org We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: –  Individuals and interactions over processes and tools –  Working software over comprehensive documentation –  Customer collaboration over contract negotiation –  Responding to change over following a plan That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more
22. Agile Software Development Manifesto Individuals and interactions Processes and tools over Working software Comprehensive documentation over Customer collaboration Contract negotiation over Responding to change Following a plan over That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more. We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: http://www.agilemanifesto.org 22
23. What is “Agile” all about? — “Agile” is an umbrella term used to describe a variety of methods that encourage continual alignment of development with the needs and expectations of the customer. —  Extreme Programming (XP) —  Scrum Development (Scrum) —  Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC) —  Dynamic Systems Development Method (DSDM) — The Agile Manifesto provides a concise statement of beliefs held in common by the developers of these varied methods. 23
24. How Agile Works Product Backlog Iteration Plan(s) Release Chart Iteration Chart(s) Release Cycle Preliminary demonstrations occur here Product release occurs here Finished work items appear as accomplishments Product
25. Agile Planning — There are two major approaches to controlling any process: —  A “Defined” process model which assumes every piece of work to be completely understood. —  An “Empirical” process model which expects the unecpected by frequent observation of results. —  Agile is an empirical process model which recognizes that software by its nature cannot be completely known in advance. —  Research shows an average of 20-40% requirements change over the course of product development. 25
26. Estimation Exercises
27. Seats in Here?
28. Collective Years of Experience?
29. Conference Attendees?
30. Different Methods Intuitively Analytically Empirically
31. A Brave New World
32. Agile Programming 32
33. Inverting the Iron Triangle Fixed Estimated Resources Time Features Requirements Resources Time Waterfall is Plan Driven Agile is Feature Driven 33
34. 5 Levels of Planning Daily Sprint Release Roadmap Vision
35. Roadmap Planning Release Planning Sprint Planning Themes Epics Stories Tasks Daily Planning Finer Levels, Finer Detail 35
36. Themes Epics Stories Tasks Finer Detail, Finer Estimates 36
37. Estimating Stories
38. User Stories 38
39. User Stories as Units “A user story is a software system requirement formulated as one or two sentences in the everyday language of the user.” As a guest I would like to book a cruise. As a guest I would like to book a cruise. 39
40. Independent Negotiable Valuable Estimable Small Testable INVEST in Stories As a <user>, I want <functionality> so that <benefit>. Verify that: - <condition / acceptance criteria> - <condition / acceptance criteria> …
41. Estimating Volume
42. Estimating Circles
43. Estimating Squares
44. All Shapes & Sizes
45. Theory of Relativity
46. Our Scale
47. Planning Poker
48. Why Fibonacci?
49. Evidence
50. Stacking the Deck
51. Scope of Estimation
52. Agile Practices Performed By The Team Collaborating Defining Planning Tracking Developing Testing Releasing Whole Team Sitting Together Stand-Up Meetings Information Radiators Sustainable Pace Ubiquitous Language Incremental Requirements User Stories Executable Requirements Estimating Vision Planning Game Release Planning Iteration Planning Risk Management Schedule Buffer Reporting Iteration Demos Root-Cause Analysis Spike Solutions Retrospectives Coding Standards Pair Programming Refactoring Simple Design Test-Driven Development Collective Ownership Acceptance Tests Test First Performance Optimization Exploratory Testing Unit Tests “Done Done” No Bugs Version Control Ten-Minute Build Continuous Integration Post-Hoc Documentation 52
53. You Need a “Done” Checklist —  This is NOT the same as Acceptance Criteria —  It applies to ALL stories —  It should start with … —  All tests to confirm the story have been agreed —  All tests to confirm the story have been written —  All tests to confirm the story have been passed —  The story has no defects —  It should end with … —  The code is production quality —  The product is ready for production, if the Product Owner accepts it —  It should include … —  Whatever the team agrees is necessary to produce a quality product —  Whatever the business team agrees is necessary to make it operational
54. Estimating Tasks
55. Task Planning As a <user>, I want <functionality> so that <benefit>. Verify that: - <condition / acceptance criteria> - <condition / acceptance criteria> … <size> a Story card Task cards
56. As a <user>, I want <functionality> so that <benefit>. Verify that: - <condition / acceptance criteria> - <condition / acceptance criteria> … Stories & Tasks Task #5 Task #4 Task #3 Task #2 Task #1
57. As a <user>, I want <functionality> so that <benefit>. Verify that: - <condition / acceptance criteria> - <condition / acceptance criteria> … Well-Defined Tasks Task #5 Task #4 Task #3 Task #2 Task #1 Specific Measurable Achievable Relevant Time-bound
58. Task Sizing
59. Task Sizing
60. Are You Gonna Be Done?
61. Re-Estimate
62. The Ideal Leading Indicator Knows how much work remains Knows how many work hours remain
63. Forecasting the Future
64. Velocity
65. Yesterday’s Weather
66. Release Burnup Chart 6.25 11 18 25.5 24 28 36 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Points Sprints Release Progress Cumulativ e Points Description Simple tool for Team to track progress during a Sprint. Key Characteristics "   Shows work remaining, not work completed "   Allows analysis of true Team capacity Managed by Team, ScrumMaster 66
67. Story Point Burn-up Story Points 67
68. A Very Cool Tool
69. Audience Feedback 69
70. Jack.Carter@ImprovingEnterprises.com