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Understanding Cognitive Bias Found in Judgement & Choice

Understanding Cognitive Bias Found in Judgement & Choice

There are distinctive patterns in the errors that all of us make. Systematic mistakes known as biases, along with impressions and thoughts, form within our conscious experience. This occurs naturally without us knowing they are even there or how they came about. The mental work that produces these impressions, intuitions, and decisions takes place silently within our mind. However, mistakes recur predictably under particular circumstances.

Those circumstances are what we’ll focus on in this talk. Heuristics, (or mental shortcuts), are an intuitive judgements based on experiences and impressions from our past.

We rely on those heuristics to approach problem solving, and especially within the context of decision making under uncertainty. Such as dealing with service disruptions or some other incident related to availability. Reliance on those heuristics often cause predictable errors in our reasoning, decision making, predictions and any common puzzle. We are often extremely confident even when we are blatantly wrong. When the constraints and pressures of “Time To Repair” influence our cognitive efforts, systematic errors are introduced into our judgements and choices.

Our minds are easily susceptible to bias, and considerations of efficiency over thoroughness can amplify these errors even more. The goal of this talk is to improve the ability to identify and understand errors in judgement and choice. Through a deeper understanding of heuristics and of the biases to which they lead, improvements in judgement and decision-making under situations of uncertainty, such as a system-wide outage should be gained.

j.hand

May 13, 2016
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  1. Understanding
    Cognitive Bias Found In
    Judgement & Choice
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  2. Jason Hand
    VictorOps
    @jasonhand
    #DevOpsDays
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  3. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  4. TTR
    Time To Repair
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  5. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  6. Not
    Prediction & Prevention
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  7. Recover Quick
    & Learn
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  8. The goal now is
    MTTR
    rather than
    MTBF
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  9. "Fail Fast" == Recover Fast
    Perform a postmortem / Learning
    Review
    Identify areas of improvement / target conditions
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  10. Constraints:
    Time
    SLA
    Lost income
    Angry Customers
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  11. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  12. Rationality
    vs
    Rationalization
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  13. Fast
    &
    Slow
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  14. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  15. System 1
    &
    System 2
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  16. System 1
    (Shallow Work)
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  17. Effortless
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  18. You just read all of this
    without trying
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  19. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  20. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  21. System 2
    (Deep Work)
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  22. Effortful
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  23. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  24. Exercise 1
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  25. Count the Fs
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  26. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  27. How many
    did you count?
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  28. 3
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  29. 6
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  30. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  31. Take the number
    7093
    Place it in your mind
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  32. Add 1 digit
    to each of the
    four separate digits.
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  33. 7093 --> 8104
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  34. Keep adding 1 to each
    digit
    (every 3 seconds)
    NOTE: This is difficult
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  35. 7093
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  36. 8104
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  37. 9215
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  38. 0326
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  39. How'd You Do?
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  40. Let's go
    Faster!
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  41. Do you remember the last
    number?
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  42. 0326
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  43. 1437
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  44. 2548
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  45. 3659
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  46. 4760
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  47. 5971
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  48. Had Enough?
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  49. Any mistakes?
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  50. 4760
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  51. 5971
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  52. Who's
    On-call?
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  53. Does this
    feel
    familiar?
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  54. Is it
    fixed yet?
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  55. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  56. Exercise 2
    (video)
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  57. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  58. Stroop Test
    (You have 6 seconds)
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  59. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  60. Nice
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  61. Try Again
    Even Faster!
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  62. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  63. How'd you do?
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  64. Efficiency
    Thoroughness
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  65. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  66. Cognitive
    Bias
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  67. James
    4 Very shy & withdrawn
    4 Invariably helpful
    4 Little interest in people or the world of reality
    4 A meek and tidy soul
    4 Needs order & structure
    4 Passion for detail
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  68. Is James more likely
    to be:
    A) Librarian
    B) Farmer
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  69. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  70. Resemblance
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  71. Simplifying Heuristic
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  72. heu·ris·tic
    /hyo͞oˈristik/
    Mental shortcut that allows people to solve problems &
    make judgements quickly & efficiently
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  73. Decision Making
    Under Uncertainty
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  74. Associative Coherence
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  75. Correlation & Causation1
    1 http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-
    correlation-isnt-causation/
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  76. Correlation & Causation2
    2 http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-
    correlation-isnt-causation/
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  77. Correlation & Causation3
    3 http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-
    correlation-isnt-causation/
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  78. Correlation
    Causation
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  79. Confident but
    Wrong
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  80. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  81. Cynefin
    Framework
    We mostly operate within
    Complex systems & tasks
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  82. Tasks can't be skipped

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  83. Practice Makes
    Perfect
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  84. Game Days
    (self-inflicted outages and
    recovery efforts)
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  85. Those who don't practice,
    deliberate during an outage
    1
    Lindsay Holmwood (@AusDTO)
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  86. Runbooks
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  87. Postmortems
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  88. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  89. We can't overcome
    cognitive bias
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  90. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  91. Just because it hasn't happened ...
    doesn't mean it won't.
    ~ Normalcy Bias ~
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  92. Confirmation Bias
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  93. Hey there!
    I exist!
    Don't ignore me!
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  94. Which is longer?
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  95. Müller-Lyer illusion
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  96. Exercise 2
    (again)
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  97. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  98. Monkey Business
    Illusion
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  99. Common Cognitive Biases:
    Confirmation Bias
    Hindsight Bias
    Availability Heuristic
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  100. Common Cognitive Biases:
    Automation Bias
    Halo Effect
    Framing Effect
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  101. Common Cognitive Biases:
    Gambler's Fallacy
    Hot-hand Fallacy
    Normalcy Bias
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  102. Common Cognitive Biases:
    Planning Fallacy
    Outcome Bias
    Better Than Average Effect
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  103. The central idea of the “heuristics and
    biases” program – that judgment under
    uncertainty often rests on a limited
    number of simplifying heuristics rather
    than extensive algorithmic processing
    4 Thomas Gilovich and Dale Griffin (HEURISTICS AND
    BIASES The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment)
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  104. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  105. Thank
    You
    jhand.co/Cognitive_Bias
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  106. Sources & Further Reading:
    Thinking Fast & Slow - (Daniel Kahneman)
    Lindsay Holmwood "DevOps Field Guide to Cognitive
    Bias": https://speakerdeck.com/auxesis/the-devops-
    field-guide-to-cognitive-biases
    Gorilla Videos: http://www.theinvisiblegorilla.com/
    videos.html
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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  107. Arrested DevOps: https://www.arresteddevops.com/
    brains/
    Field Guide to Understanding Human Error - (Sydney
    Dekker)
    Heuristics & Biases - The Pyshcology of Intuitive
    Judgement - (Gilovich & Griffin)
    How Our Minds Mislead Us: The Marvels and Flaws of
    Our Intuition - https://www.brainpickings.org/
    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

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