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Understanding Cognitive Bias Found in Judgement & Choice

Understanding Cognitive Bias Found in Judgement & Choice

There are distinctive patterns in the errors that all of us make. Systematic mistakes known as biases, along with impressions and thoughts, form within our conscious experience. This occurs naturally without us knowing they are even there or how they came about. The mental work that produces these impressions, intuitions, and decisions takes place silently within our mind. However, mistakes recur predictably under particular circumstances.

Those circumstances are what we’ll focus on in this talk. Heuristics, (or mental shortcuts), are an intuitive judgements based on experiences and impressions from our past.

We rely on those heuristics to approach problem solving, and especially within the context of decision making under uncertainty. Such as dealing with service disruptions or some other incident related to availability. Reliance on those heuristics often cause predictable errors in our reasoning, decision making, predictions and any common puzzle. We are often extremely confident even when we are blatantly wrong. When the constraints and pressures of “Time To Repair” influence our cognitive efforts, systematic errors are introduced into our judgements and choices.

Our minds are easily susceptible to bias, and considerations of efficiency over thoroughness can amplify these errors even more. The goal of this talk is to improve the ability to identify and understand errors in judgement and choice. Through a deeper understanding of heuristics and of the biases to which they lead, improvements in judgement and decision-making under situations of uncertainty, such as a system-wide outage should be gained.

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j.hand

May 13, 2016
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  1. Understanding Cognitive Bias Found In Judgement & Choice @jasonhand |

    VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  2. Jason Hand VictorOps @jasonhand #DevOpsDays @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  3. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  4. TTR Time To Repair @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  5. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  6. Not Prediction & Prevention @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  7. Recover Quick & Learn @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  8. The goal now is MTTR rather than MTBF @jasonhand |

    VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  9. "Fail Fast" == Recover Fast Perform a postmortem / Learning

    Review Identify areas of improvement / target conditions @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  10. Constraints: Time SLA Lost income Angry Customers @jasonhand | VictorOps

    | #DevOpsDays
  11. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  12. Rationality vs Rationalization @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  13. Fast & Slow @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  14. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  15. System 1 & System 2 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  16. System 1 (Shallow Work) @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  17. Effortless @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  18. You just read all of this without trying @jasonhand |

    VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  19. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  20. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  21. System 2 (Deep Work) @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  22. Effortful @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  23. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  24. Exercise 1 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  25. Count the Fs @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  26. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  27. How many did you count? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  28. 3 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  29. 6 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  30. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  31. Take the number 7093 Place it in your mind @jasonhand

    | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  32. Add 1 digit to each of the four separate digits.

    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  33. 7093 --> 8104 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  34. Keep adding 1 to each digit (every 3 seconds) NOTE:

    This is difficult @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  35. 7093 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  36. 8104 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  37. 9215 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  38. 0326 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  39. How'd You Do? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  40. Let's go Faster! @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  41. Do you remember the last number? @jasonhand | VictorOps |

    #DevOpsDays
  42. 0326 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  43. 1437 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  44. 2548 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  45. 3659 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  46. 4760 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  47. 5971 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  48. Had Enough? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  49. Any mistakes? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  50. 4760 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  51. 5971 @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  52. Who's On-call? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  53. Does this feel familiar? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  54. Is it fixed yet? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  55. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  56. Exercise 2 (video) @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  57. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  58. Stroop Test (You have 6 seconds) @jasonhand | VictorOps |

    #DevOpsDays
  59. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  60. Nice @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  61. Try Again Even Faster! @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  62. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  63. How'd you do? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  64. Efficiency Thoroughness @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  65. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  66. Cognitive Bias @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  67. James 4 Very shy & withdrawn 4 Invariably helpful 4

    Little interest in people or the world of reality 4 A meek and tidy soul 4 Needs order & structure 4 Passion for detail @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  68. Is James more likely to be: A) Librarian B) Farmer

    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  69. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  70. Resemblance @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  71. Simplifying Heuristic @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  72. heu·ris·tic /hyo͞oˈristik/ Mental shortcut that allows people to solve problems

    & make judgements quickly & efficiently @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  73. Decision Making Under Uncertainty @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  74. Associative Coherence @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  75. Correlation & Causation1 1 http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that- correlation-isnt-causation/ @jasonhand | VictorOps |

    #DevOpsDays
  76. Correlation & Causation2 2 http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that- correlation-isnt-causation/ @jasonhand | VictorOps |

    #DevOpsDays
  77. Correlation & Causation3 3 http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that- correlation-isnt-causation/ @jasonhand | VictorOps |

    #DevOpsDays
  78. Correlation Causation @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  79. Confident but Wrong @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  80. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  81. Cynefin Framework We mostly operate within Complex systems & tasks

    @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  82. Tasks can't be skipped ⊘ @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  83. Practice Makes Perfect @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  84. Game Days (self-inflicted outages and recovery efforts) @jasonhand | VictorOps

    | #DevOpsDays
  85. Those who don't practice, deliberate during an outage 1 Lindsay

    Holmwood (@AusDTO) @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  86. Runbooks @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  87. Postmortems @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  88. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  89. We can't overcome cognitive bias @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  90. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  91. Just because it hasn't happened ... doesn't mean it won't.

    ~ Normalcy Bias ~ @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  92. Confirmation Bias @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  93. Hey there! I exist! Don't ignore me! @jasonhand | VictorOps

    | #DevOpsDays
  94. Which is longer? @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  95. Müller-Lyer illusion @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  96. Exercise 2 (again) @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  97. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  98. Monkey Business Illusion @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  99. Common Cognitive Biases: Confirmation Bias Hindsight Bias Availability Heuristic @jasonhand

    | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  100. Common Cognitive Biases: Automation Bias Halo Effect Framing Effect @jasonhand

    | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  101. Common Cognitive Biases: Gambler's Fallacy Hot-hand Fallacy Normalcy Bias @jasonhand

    | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  102. Common Cognitive Biases: Planning Fallacy Outcome Bias Better Than Average

    Effect @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  103. The central idea of the “heuristics and biases” program –

    that judgment under uncertainty often rests on a limited number of simplifying heuristics rather than extensive algorithmic processing 4 Thomas Gilovich and Dale Griffin (HEURISTICS AND BIASES The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment) @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  104. @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  105. Thank You jhand.co/Cognitive_Bias @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays

  106. Sources & Further Reading: Thinking Fast & Slow - (Daniel

    Kahneman) Lindsay Holmwood "DevOps Field Guide to Cognitive Bias": https://speakerdeck.com/auxesis/the-devops- field-guide-to-cognitive-biases Gorilla Videos: http://www.theinvisiblegorilla.com/ videos.html @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays
  107. Arrested DevOps: https://www.arresteddevops.com/ brains/ Field Guide to Understanding Human Error

    - (Sydney Dekker) Heuristics & Biases - The Pyshcology of Intuitive Judgement - (Gilovich & Griffin) How Our Minds Mislead Us: The Marvels and Flaws of Our Intuition - https://www.brainpickings.org/ @jasonhand | VictorOps | #DevOpsDays