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ICU 154 Teleconference Support Material

ICU 154 Teleconference Support Material

Preliminary support material synthesis for the ICU teleconference (issue 154, forecast period July - September 2013)

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Nicolas Fauchereau

June 26, 2013
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  1. Island  Climate  Update  154   Forecast  period:   July  –

     September  2013   Teleconference  Thursday  27th  of  June  2013     (11:30  AM  NZ  Dme)   26/06/13   1  
  2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecDon,  circulaDon  and  SST

     anomalies   last  month  (June  2013)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaDon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaDon  (MJO)  diagnosDcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     26/06/13   2   Outline    
  3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific

      26/06/13   3  
  4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     26/06/13  

    4  
  5. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     26/06/13  

    5  
  6. 26/06/13   6   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for

     ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %  
  7. NOAA  OLR  Anomalies   26/06/13   7   http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

  8. 26/06/13   8   Circula<on  anomalies:  Geopoten<al  at  1000hPa  and

     wind   NCEP  /  DOE  to  the  25th  of  June  
  9. SST  anomalies  May  2013   SST  anomalies  June  2013  

    26/06/13   9  
  10. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast

        26/06/13   10  
  11. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   26/06/13   Datasource  =

     BoM  (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   11  
  12. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days

     (25th  June)  is  -­‐1.71     SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   26/06/13   h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   12   NIWA  SOI  esDmate  for  June  =  +0.8  
  13. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   26/06/13  

    13  
  14. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     26/06/13  

    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ jsdisplay/ 14   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
  15. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal

     Guidance)       26/06/13   15   Climate Model or Group JJA 2013 SON 2013 DJF 2013/14 POAMA2.4 (Australia) Neutral Neutral Neutral   ECMWF (EU)          Neutral Neutral Unavailable   EuroSIP (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable   LDEO5 (USA) Neutral   Neutral   Neutral   NCEP CFS (USA)  Neutral Neutral+ Neutral+ Met Office (UK) Neutral-­‐ Neutral Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Neutral-­‐ Neutral Warm   NASA-GMAO (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral+   JMA (Japan) Neutral Neutral Unavailable   FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral-­‐ Neutral-­‐ Neutral     CPC CCA (USA) Neutral-­‐                Cold   Neutral-­‐   NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Cold                Cold Neutral-­‐ SSES (Ohio, USA) Neutral   Neutral   Unavailable   CLIPER (USA) Neutral   Neutral   Neutral   Florida State Univ. (USA) Neutral   Neutral Neutral  
  16. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     26/06/13   16

     
  17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   26/06/13   h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or

     h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     17  
  18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   26/06/13   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast

        18  
  19. 5)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   26/06/13   19  

  20. 26/06/13   20   JJA  2013   JAS  2013  

  21. 26/06/13   21   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY

     !!!   July – September 2013 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Papua New Guinea 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Solomon Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Northern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Fiji 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Marquesas 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tonga 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Vanuatu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Kiribati (Eastern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Kiribati (Western) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tokelau 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuvalu 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. The final column is an indication of the confidence in the forecast, and is determined by how well individual models (shown in the next table) agree. Island groups listed above are ranked from above to
  22. 26/06/13   22   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY

     !!!  
  23. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   26/06/13   23  

  24. 26/06/13   24   JJA  2013   SST  anomalies  June

     2013   JAS  2013   Hasn’t  been  updated  
  25. 26/06/13   25   METPI  SST  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY

     !!!     July - September 2013 ICU Sea Surface Temperature Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Austral Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Northern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Southern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Fiji 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Papua New Guinea 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Solomon Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Tonga 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Wallis & Futuna 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate Marquesas 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuvalu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Vanuatu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 35 40 25 AVG -BELOW High Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for SST anomalies occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper- U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected SST anomaly relative to normal for the time of year. The final column is an indication of the confidence in the forecast, and is determined by how well individual models (shown in the next table) agree.