ICU 161 teleconference support material

Preliminary support material for the ICU 161 teleconference

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  161   Forecast  period:   February–  April  2014   Teleconference  Tuesday  4th  of  February  2014   (12:30  AM  NZ  Ame)   4/02/14   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecAon,  circulaAon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (January  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaAon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaAon  (MJO)  diagnosAcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     4/02/14   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec;on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   4/02/14   3  
4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     4/02/14   4  
5. 4/02/14   5  
6. 4/02/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product  
7. 4/02/14   7   Circula;on  anomalies:  Geopoten;al  at  1000hPa  and  wind  
8. SST  anomalies  December  2013   SST  anomalies  January  2014   4/02/14   8  
9. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa;on  and  forecast     4/02/14   9  
10. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   4/02/14   Datasource  =  BoM  (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10  
11. The  ENSO  Precipita;on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (3rd  Feb.)  is  -­‐0.23    (was  –1.07  last  month)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   4/02/14   h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   11  
12. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   4/02/14   12  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     4/02/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
14. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       4/02/14   14  
15. 3)  MJO  diagnos;cs  and  forecasts     4/02/14   15  
16. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Monitoring  (BoM)   4/02/14   h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     16  
17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   4/02/14   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  sta;s;cal  Forecast  (CPC)   4/02/14   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     18  
19. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   4/02/14   19  
20. 4/02/14   20   JFM  2014   FMA  2014  
21. 4/02/14   21   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  
22. 4/02/14   22   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!   February – April 2014 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Fiji 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Tonga 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High FSM 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Papua New Guinea 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Vanuatu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Northern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Kiribati (Eastern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuamotu Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuvalu 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Marquesas 45 35 20 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. The final column is an indication of the confidence in the forecast, and is determined by how well individual models (shown in the next table) agree. Island groups listed above are ranked from above to below normal rainfall. Supporting information is shown in the second table.
23. 4/02/14   23   SPCZ  forecast  
24. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   4/02/14   24  
25. 4/02/14   25   JFM  2013   SST  anomalies    January  2014   FMA  2014   Not  available  
26. 4/02/14   26   METPI  SST  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!