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ICU 162 teleconference support material
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Nicolas Fauchereau
March 03, 2014
Science
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ICU 162 teleconference support material
support material (preliminary) for the Island Climate Update issue 162 teleconference
Nicolas Fauchereau
March 03, 2014
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Transcript
Island Climate Update 162 Forecast period: March –
May 2014 Teleconference Tuesday 4th of March 2014 (12:30 AM NZ @me) 4/03/14 1
1) Some words on Rainfall / Convec@on, circula@on and SST
anomalies last month (February 2014) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situa@on and forecast 3) Madden-‐Julian Oscilla@on (MJO) diagnos@cs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 4/03/14 2 Outline
1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific
4/03/14 3
Rainfall anomalies and averages (TRMM) 4/03/14
4
4/03/14 5
4/03/14 6 • Well below = < 40
% of normal • Below = between 40 and 80 % • Normal = between 80 and 120 % • Above = between 120 and 160 % • Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM) Experimental product
4/03/14 7 Circula<on anomalies: Geopoten<al at 1000hPa and
wind
SST anomalies January 2014 SST anomalies February 2014
4/03/14 8
2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast
4/03/14 9
SOI and SST NINO INDICES 4/03/14 Datasource =
BoM (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10
The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days
(3rd Mar.) is 0.36 (was -‐0.23 last month) SOI and ESPI INDICES 4/03/14 h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 4/03/14
12
Ocean sub-‐surface and heat content anomalies 4/03/14
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal
Guidance) 4/03/14 14
3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 4/03/14 15
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 4/03/14 h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or
h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 16
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 4/03/14 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
17
Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 4/03/14 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
18
4) METPI Rainfall forecasts 4/03/14 19
4/03/14 20 FMA 2014 MAM 2014
4/03/14 21 METPI rainfall results !!!! PRELIMINARY
!!!
4/03/14 22 METPI rainfall results !!!! PRELIMINARY
!!!
6) METPI SST forecasts 4/03/14 23
4/03/14 24 FMA 2014 SST anomalies
February 2014 MAM 2014 Not available