ICU 166 support material

Support material for the ICU 166 teleconference (July - September 2014). METPI rainfall results are **preliminary**

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  166   Forecast  period:   July  –  September  2014   Teleconference  Tuesday  1st  of  July  2014   (11:30  AM  NZ  Cme)   1/07/14   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecCon,  circulaCon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (June  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaCon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaCon  (MJO)  diagnosCcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     1/07/14   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec;on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   1/07/14   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     1/07/14   4  
5. 1/07/14   5  
6. 1/07/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product  
7. 1/07/14   7   Fiji   New  Caledonia  
8. 1/07/14   8   Circula;on  anomalies:  Geopoten;al  at  1000hPa  and  wind  
9. SST  anomalies  May  2014   SST  anomalies  June  2014   1/07/14   9  
10. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa;on  and  forecast     1/07/14   10  
11. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   1/07/14   Datasource  =  BoM  (h`p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   11  
12. The  ENSO  Precipita;on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (30  June)  is  -­‐0.15    (was  -­‐0.48  last  month)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   1/07/14   h`p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   12  
13. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   1/07/14   13  
14. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   1/07/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
15. 1/07/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 15   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
16. 1/07/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 16   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
17. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       1/07/14   17  
18. 3)  MJO  diagnos;cs  and  forecasts     1/07/14   18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Monitoring  (BoM)   1/07/14   h`p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h`p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   1/07/14   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  sta;s;cal  Forecast  (CPC)   1/07/14   h`p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     21  
22. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   1/07/14   22  
23. 1/07/14   23  
24. 1/07/14   24   METPI  rainfall  results   July – September 2014 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE FSM 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Southern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Kiribati (Western) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tonga 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Fiji 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Niue 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Wallis & Futuna 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Papua New Guinea 40 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Marquesas 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Society Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tokelau 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuvalu 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.
25. 1/07/14   25   METPI  rainfall  results  
26. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   1/07/14   26  
27. 1/07/14   27   SST  anomalies  June  2014   t 2/7 ECWMF  Seasonal  Forecast   http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-­‐web249-­‐20140630171214-­‐30857-­‐0837.gif   http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-­‐web249-­‐20140630171214-­‐30857-­‐0837.gif Island Climate Update - Southwest Pacific rainfall forecasts used in METPI 3/7 IRICS   D/.SSTA_FCST/.ASST/.version02/S/%280000%201%20Jun%202014%29VALUE/a:/.sst/L/3/0.0/runningAverage//pointwidth/3/def/L/%282.5%29VALUE/temp_anomaly_colors_gcm/:a:/.T/L/3/0.0/runningAverage//pointwidth/3/def/L/%282.5%29VALUE/:a/X/Y/fig-­‐ nish+grey+land+plotlabel+-­‐fig+//L/2.5/plotvalue//S/609./plotvalue+//framelabel+%28%25=%5BT%5D%20IRI%20seasonal%20Forecast%20SSTA%20issued%20%25=%5BS%5D%29+psdef//plotaxislength+1200+psdef//antialias+true+psdef+.gif   Island Climate Update - Southwest Pacific rainfall forecasts used in METPI 5/7 NASA  -­‐  1m  lead   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmpsfc_season1.png   Island Climate Update - Southwest Pacific rainfall forecasts used in METPI NOAA  NWS/NCEP/CPC  PDF  corrected  CFS  seasonal  SST