ICU 171 Teleconference Support Material

Preliminary support material for the ICU 171 (December 2014 - February 2015 forecast period) teleconference

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  171   Forecast  period:   December  2014  –  February  2015   Teleconference  Wednesday  3  of  December  2014   (12:30  PM  NZ  Dme)   3/12/14   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecDon,  circulaDon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (November  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaDon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaDon  (MJO)  diagnosDcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     3/12/14   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec;on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   3/12/14   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     3/12/14   4  
5. 3/12/14   5  
6. 3/12/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
7. SST  anomalies  October  2014   SST  anomalies  November  2014   3/12/14   7  
8. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa;on  and  forecast     3/12/14   8  
9. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   3/12/14   Datasource  =  BoM  (h^p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   9  
10. The  ENSO  Precipita;on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (2  Dec.)  is  -­‐0.27     (La  Nina  side  of  Neutral)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   3/12/14   h^p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   10  
11. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   3/12/14   11  
12. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/12/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/12/14   13   From  h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluDon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
14. 3/12/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
15. 3/12/14   15   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   From  h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluDon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
16. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       3/12/14   16   Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   DJF  2014/15   0%   26%   74%   MAM  2015   0%   34%   66%   JJA  2015   7%   70%   53%  
17. 3)  MJO  diagnos;cs  and  forecasts     3/12/14   17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Monitoring  (BoM)   3/12/14   h^p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h^p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   3/12/14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  sta;s;cal  Forecast  (CPC)   3/12/14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   3/12/14   21  
22. 3/12/14   22  
23. 3/12/14   23   METPI  rainfall  results   December 2014 – February 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Austral Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Kiribati (Western) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Papua New Guinea 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tonga 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Society Islands 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Solomon Islands 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Cook Islands (Northern) 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Tokelau 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate FSM 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Fiji 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Kiribati (Eastern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Niue 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuvalu 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Marquesas 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.
24. 3/12/14   24   METPI  rainfall  results  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   3/12/14   25  
26. 3/12/14   26