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ICU_181

 ICU_181

preliminary support material for the Island Climate Update issue 181 (OND 2015) teleconference

Nicolas Fauchereau

September 30, 2015
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  1. Island  Climate  Update  181  
    Forecast  period:  
    October  –  December  2015  
    Teleconference  Thursday  1st  of  October  2015  
    (12:30  PM  NZ  Dme)  
    1/10/15   1  

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  2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecDon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month  
    (September  2015)  
    2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaDon  and  forecast    
    3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaDon  (MJO)  diagnosDcs  and  forecasts    
    4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast    
    5)  METPI  SST  Forecast    
    1/10/15   2  
    Outline    

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  3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec;on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific  
    1/10/15   3  

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  4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM  /  GPM)    
    1/10/15   4  

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  5. 1/10/15   5  
    hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml  

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  6. 1/10/15   6  
    •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal  
    •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %  
    •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %  
    •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %  
    •  Well  above  =  >  160  %  
    Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  

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  7. SST  anomalies  August  2015  
    SST  anomalies  September  2015  
    1/10/15   7  

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  8. 1/10/15   8  

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  9. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa;on  and  forecast    
    1/10/15   9  

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  10. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES  
    1/10/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/
    climate/enso/)  
    10  

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  11. The  ENSO  Precipita;on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (29  Sep.)  is  +2.21  
    (El  Niño)  
    SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES  
    1/10/15  
    hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/
    Events/thirty_day.html  
    11  

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  12. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies  
    1/10/15   hTp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/   12  

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  13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)  
    1/10/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13  
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
    August  2015     September  2015     Last  5  days  (28  September)  

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  14. 1/10/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14  
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
    analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/
    wksl_anm.gif  
    Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  

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  15. ENSO  forecast  
     
    ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)    
     
    1/10/15   15  
    CPC/IRI  Early-­‐Month  Consensus  ENSO  Forecast  ProbabiliDes  
    IRI/CPC  Mid-­‐Month  Plume-­‐Based  ENSO  Forecast  
    ProbabiliDes  
     
    Season   La  Niña  
    Prob.  
    Neutral  
    Prob.  
    El  Niño  
    Prob.  
    OND  2015   0%   1%   99%  
    JFM  2016   1%   5%   94%  
    AMJ  2016   5%   40%   55%  

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  16. 3)  MJO  diagnos;cs  and  forecasts    
    1/10/15   16  

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  17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Monitoring  (BoM)  
    1/10/15  
    hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/  
     
    17  

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  18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)  
    1/10/15  
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast  
     
    18  

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  19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  sta;s;cal  Forecast  (CPC)  
    1/10/15  
    hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast  
     
    19  

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  20. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts  (OND  2015)  
    1/10/15   20  

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  21. 1/10/15   21  

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  22. 1/10/15   22  
    METPI  rainfall  results  
    October – December 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance
    ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
    Kiribati
    (Eastern)
    10 30 60 ABOVE High
    Kiribati
    (Western)
    10 30 60 ABOVE High
    Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE High
    Tokelau 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High
    Marquesas 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High
    Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High
    Cook Islands
    (Northern)
    35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High
    Tuamotu
    Islands
    40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High
    Austral Islands 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Society Islands 45 35 20 BELOW High
    Wallis &
    Futuna
    45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    FSM 45 35 20 BELOW High
    Cook Islands
    (Southern)
    50 30 20 BELOW High
    Papua New
    Guinea
    50 30 20 BELOW High
    Samoa 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Solomon
    Islands
    50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High
    Vanuatu 50 30 20 BELOW High
    Niue 55 30 15 BELOW High
    Tonga 55 30 15 BELOW High
    Fiji 60 30 10 BELOW High
    Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for
    the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall
    occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is
    an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.

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  23. 1/10/15   23  
    METPI  rainfall  results  

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  24. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts  (OND  2015)  
    1/10/15   24  

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  25. 1/10/15   25  

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