1/10/15
6
• Well
below
=
<
40
%
of
normal
• Below
=
between
40
and
80
%
• Normal
=
between
80
and
120
%
• Above
=
between
120
and
160
%
• Well
above
=
>
160
%
Past
6
months
rainfall
anomalies
for
ICU
Islands
group
(TRMM)
The
ENSO
Precipita;on
Index
(ESPI)
for
the
last
30
days
(29
Sep.)
is
+2.21
(El
Niño)
SOI
and
ESPI
INDICES
1/10/15
hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html
11
Ocean
sub-‐surface
temp
anomalies
(TAO)
1/10/15
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
August
2015
September
2015
Last
5
days
(28
September)
1/10/15
22
METPI
rainfall
results
October – December 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE High Tokelau 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Marquesas 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Northern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Austral Islands 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Society Islands 45 35 20 BELOW High Wallis & Futuna 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High FSM 45 35 20 BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 50 30 20 BELOW High Papua New Guinea 50 30 20 BELOW High Samoa 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Solomon Islands 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu 50 30 20 BELOW High Niue 55 30 15 BELOW High Tonga 55 30 15 BELOW High Fiji 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.