3D vs. Conventional Volcanic Hazard Maps

Charles Preppernau
Oregon State University
#nacis2015

Transcript

1. 3D vs. Conventional Volcanic Hazard Maps: A User Study at Mount Hood Charles Preppernau Bernhard Jenny
2. Philip Maise, 2008 Chris Newhall, 1984 Chris Newhall, 1991
3. “...so the lava flow will go down this river...” Research Problem
4. Research Question How can we use cartographic methods to improve volcanic hazard maps?
5. Modified from Scott et al. 1997 Research Problem
6. Revised Research Questions Do 3D maps allow users to more accurately interpret terrain? Do isochrones give a better understanding of the speed of lahar hazards? Do these two cartographic methods improve user’s choice of evacuation routes?
7. Study Design
8. Study Design
9. 2D Maps
10. 2D Maps
11. 3D maps
12. 3D maps
13. Hypotheses H1: Users prefer 3D perspective maps over 2D contour maps for terrain representation, and prefer isochrones over point markers for travel time indicators. H2: Users more accurately judge relative elevation and slope on 3D maps than on 2D maps. H3: Users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps than on 2D maps. H4: Users more accurately interpret lahar travel time and speed with isochrone maps than with point marker maps. H5: Users choose more successful evacuation routes with 3D maps or isochrones than with 2D maps or point markers. Study Design
14. Study Design
15. 1st trip: 34 participants  pilot survey 2nd trip: 41 participants 3rd trip: 39 participants = 80 participants total for final survey Study Design
16. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? User Preferences
17. User Preferences
18. Map Type Terrain Best Terrain Worst Time Best Time Worst Route Best Route Worst 2D markers 3 47 4 51 4 44 3D isochrones 42 2 38 3 41 4 3D markers 31 1 13 15 18 9 2D isochrones 0 26 21 7 13 19 User Preferences
19. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? User Preferences
20. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Terrain Interpretation
21. Terrain Interpretation
22. Grouped 3D map scores are significantly greater than grouped 2D map scores (p value = 0.03) Terrain Interpretation
23. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? Yes, users of 3D maps scored higher on elevation and slope comparisons than users of 2D maps. H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Terrain Interpretation
24. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? Yes, users of 3D maps scored higher on elevation and slope comparisons than users of 2D maps. H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Self-location
25. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? Yes, users of 3D maps scored higher on elevation and slope comparisons than users of 2D maps. H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? No, there was no difference in location error between map types. H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Self-location
26. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? Yes, users of 3D maps scored higher on elevation and slope comparisons than users of 2D maps. H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? No, there was no difference in location error between map types. H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Lahar Travel Time Interpretation
27. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? Yes, users of 3D maps scored higher on elevation and slope comparisons than users of 2D maps. H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? No, there was no difference in location error between map types. H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? No. Users of marker maps performed just as well as users of isochrone maps. H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Lahar Travel Time Interpretation
28. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? Yes, users of 3D maps scored higher on elevation and slope comparisons than users of 2D maps. H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? No, there was no difference in location error between map types. H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? No. Users of marker maps performed just as well as users of isochrone maps. H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Evacuation Routes
31. Grouped 3D map scores are significantly lower than grouped 2D map scores (p value = 0.03) Evacuation Routes:
32. H1: Do users prefer 3D maps and isochrones? Yes, 3D isochrone maps were always liked most, 2D marker maps were always liked least. H2: Do users more accurately read terrain on 3D maps? Yes, users of 3D maps scored higher on elevation and slope comparisons than users of 2D maps. H3: Do users more accurately locate themselves on 3D maps? No, there was no difference in location error between map types. H4: Do users more reliably judge lahar arrival time and speed on isochrone maps? No. Users of marker maps performed just as well as users of isochrone maps. H5: Do users choose better escape routes on 3D or isochrone maps? Yes, users of 3D maps chose on-foot routes with lower critical speeds than users of 2D maps. Evacuation Routes:
33. 3D maps are more effective tools than 2D maps for conveying the dangers of lahars. Future research should focus on: Switching to open source software Automating the 3D map creation process Optimizing and testing new versions of the map design Conclusions:
34. Further work: www.3dvolcano.com
35. Thank you!
36. Research Problem
37. Previous Research
38. Methods: Study Site
39. Methods: User Study
40. Results
41. Conclusions
42. Acknowledgements
43. References Baxter, Peter J. 2000. “Impacts of Eruptions on Human Health.” In Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 1035–43. Orlando: Academic Press. Blong, Russell J. 1984. Volcanic Hazards. A Sourcebook on the Effects of Eruptions. North Ryde, N.S.W.: Academic Press. Gardner, C. A., W. E. Scott, J. J. Major, and T. C. Pierson. 2000. “Mount Hood—history and Hazards of Oregon’s Most Recently Active Volcano.” US Geol. Surv. Survey Fact Sheet, no. 060-00. Haynes, Katharine, Jenni Barclay, and Nick Pidgeon. 2007. “Volcanic Hazard Communication Using Maps: An Evaluation of Their Effectiveness.” Bulletin of Volcanology 70 (2): 123–38. Jenny, Helen, Bernhard Jenny, and Lorenz Hurni. 2010. “Interactive Design of 3D Maps with Progressive Projection.” The Cartographic Journal 47 (3): 211–21. Marzocchi, Warner, Christopher Newhall, and Gordon Woo. 2012. “The Scientific Management of Volcanic Crises.” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 247: 181–89. Nakada, Setsuna. 2000. “Hazards from Pyroclastic Flows and Surges.” In Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 945–95. Orlando: Academic Press. Newhall, C. G. 2000. “Volcano Warnings.” In Encyclopaedia of Volcanoes, 1185–97. Orlando: Academic Press. Newhall, C. G., and R. S. Punongbayan. 1996. “The Narrow Margin of Successful Volcanic-Risk Mitigation.” In Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards, 807–38. Springer. Pierson, Thomas C. 1998. “An Empirical Method for Estimating Travel Times for Wet Volcanic Mass Flows.” Bulletin of Volcanology 60 (2): 98–109. Rodolfo, K. S. 2000. “The Hazard from Lahars and Jökulhlaups.” In Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 973–95. Orlando: Academic Press. Schilling, S. P., S. Doelger, W. E. Scott, T. C. Pierson, J. E. Costa, C. A. Gardner, J. W. Vallance, and J. J. Major. 2008. Digital Data for Volcano Hazards of the Mount Hood Region, Oregon. Schobesberger, David, and Tom Patterson. 2007. “Evaluating the Effectiveness of 2D vs. 3D Trailhead Maps.” Mountain Mapping and Visualisation, 201. Scott, W. E., T. C. Pierson, S. P. Schilling, J. E. Costa, C. A. Gardner, J. W. Vallance, and J. J. Major. 1997. “Volcano Hazards in the Mount Hood Region.” Oregon: US Geological Survey Open-File Report 97: 89. Wood, Nathan J., and Mathew C. Schmidtlein. 2013. “Community Variations in Population Exposure to near-Field Tsunami Hazards as a Function of Pedestrian Travel Time to Safety.” Natural Hazards 65 (3): 1603–28.
46. 3D Line Features
47. 3D Line Features
48. Methods: The Lahar Travel Time Raster
49. Data from Pierson (1998) The Lahar Travel Time Raster
50. The Lahar Travel Time Raster
53. No significant differences between grouped 2D and 3D maps (p value = 0.57) Self-location
54. The Lahar Travel Time Raster
55. Lahar Travel Time Interpretation
56. No significant difference between groups or pairs (p values > 0.12) No significant difference Lahar Travel Time Interpretation
57. Evacuation Routes: Critical Speed
58. Evacuation Routes: Critical Speed
59. Modified from Haynes et al. (2007) Previous Research