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Better Distributional Fit Does Not ImproveReac...
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Rahul Gopinath
October 22, 2026
Research
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Better Distributional Fit Does Not Improve Reachable Coverage Estimation in Fuzzing
ISSRE'26
Rahul Gopinath
October 22, 2026
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Transcript
Better Distributional Fit Does Not Improve Reachable Coverage Estimation in
Fuzzing Nelum Attanayake*, Danushka Liyanage, Hoang Nguyen, Suranga Seneviratne, Clement Canonne, Rahul Gopinath
What is Fuzzing? Seed Inputs Mutate Inputs Run Program Coverage
Coverage feedback Covered blocks Uncovered blocks 2
When Should We Stop Fuzzing? Program ? Covered blocks Uncovered
reachable blocks 3
Statistical View of Coverage Fuzzing Ecology Forest Program Observed species
Covered blocks Unseen species Unseen reachable blocks Estimate total species 4 Estimate reachable coverage
Real-world Programs vs. Synthetic Parsers Real-world programs Synthetic parsers Realistic
Controlled Unknown reachable coverage Known reachable coverage 5
Synthetic Parser Programs 6
Does a Better-Fitting Distribution Give a Better Estimator? RQ1: What
distribution best fits coverage discovery in real programs? RQ2: Do synthetic parsers show similar coverage-discovery behaviour? RQ3: Do the best-fitting parametric models improve reachable-coverage estimation? 7
Study Design Subjects Real-world programs (7) Synthetic parser programs (5)
Estimators Non-parametric estimators (5) Parametric estimators (6) 8
Reachable Coverage Estimators Non- parametric estimators Parametric estimators Poisson Chao2
Exponential Chao2_bc Gamma Jacknife 1 Gamma- Poisson Chiu Negative Binomial LanumteangBohning 9 Zipf- Mandelbrot
RQ1: What distribution best fits coverage discovery in real programs?
Subject Model Jsoncpp Zipf- Mandelbrot Libtiff Zipf- Mandelbrot Libxml2 Gamma– Poisson Libpcap Zipf- Mandelbrot Jasper Zipf- Mandelbrot Freetype2 Zipf- Mandelbrot Zlib Zipf- Mandelbrot 6 of 7 subjects Zipf - Mandelbrot 10
RQ2: Do synthetic parsers show similar coverage-discovery behaviour? Real- world
programs Synthetic programs Zipf- Mandelbrot – 6/7 Zipf- Mandelbrot – 2/5 Gamma– Poisson – 1/7 Gamma– Poisson – 3/5 11
Coverage Discovery is Highly Uneven 12
RQ3: Do the best-fitting parametric models improve reachable-coverage estimation? Parametric
estimators Gamma- Poisson Zipf- Mandelbrot Non- parametric estimators ≈ Mean relative error Chao2 Chao2_bc Jacknife 1 Chiu Lanumteang-Bohning Mean relative errors differ by only 0.08 percentage points across all seven estimators 13
Better Fit ≠ Better Estimation 14
Summary 15
RQ3: Do the best-fitting parametric models improve reachable-coverage estimation? 12