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Better Distributional Fit Does Not Improve Reac...

Better Distributional Fit Does Not Improve Reachable Coverage Estimation in Fuzzing

ISSRE'26

Avatar for Rahul Gopinath

Rahul Gopinath

October 22, 2026

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  1. Better Distributional Fit Does Not Improve Reachable Coverage Estimation in

    Fuzzing Nelum Attanayake*, Danushka Liyanage, Hoang Nguyen, Suranga Seneviratne, Clement Canonne, Rahul Gopinath
  2. What is Fuzzing? Seed Inputs Mutate Inputs Run Program Coverage

    Coverage feedback Covered blocks Uncovered blocks 2
  3. Statistical View of Coverage Fuzzing Ecology Forest Program Observed species

    Covered blocks Unseen species Unseen reachable blocks Estimate total species 4 Estimate reachable coverage
  4. Real-world Programs vs. Synthetic Parsers Real-world programs Synthetic parsers Realistic

    Controlled Unknown reachable coverage Known reachable coverage 5
  5. Does a Better-Fitting Distribution Give a Better Estimator? RQ1: What

    distribution best fits coverage discovery in real programs? RQ2: Do synthetic parsers show similar coverage-discovery behaviour? RQ3: Do the best-fitting parametric models improve reachable-coverage estimation? 7
  6. Study Design Subjects Real-world programs (7) Synthetic parser programs (5)

    Estimators Non-parametric estimators (5) Parametric estimators (6) 8
  7. Reachable Coverage Estimators Non- parametric estimators Parametric estimators Poisson Chao2

    Exponential Chao2_bc Gamma Jacknife 1 Gamma- Poisson Chiu Negative Binomial LanumteangBohning 9 Zipf- Mandelbrot
  8. RQ1: What distribution best fits coverage discovery in real programs?

    Subject Model Jsoncpp Zipf- Mandelbrot Libtiff Zipf- Mandelbrot Libxml2 Gamma– Poisson Libpcap Zipf- Mandelbrot Jasper Zipf- Mandelbrot Freetype2 Zipf- Mandelbrot Zlib Zipf- Mandelbrot 6 of 7 subjects Zipf - Mandelbrot 10
  9. RQ2: Do synthetic parsers show similar coverage-discovery behaviour? Real- world

    programs Synthetic programs Zipf- Mandelbrot – 6/7 Zipf- Mandelbrot – 2/5 Gamma– Poisson – 1/7 Gamma– Poisson – 3/5 11
  10. RQ3: Do the best-fitting parametric models improve reachable-coverage estimation? Parametric

    estimators Gamma- Poisson Zipf- Mandelbrot Non- parametric estimators ≈ Mean relative error Chao2 Chao2_bc Jacknife 1 Chiu Lanumteang-Bohning Mean relative errors differ by only 0.08 percentage points across all seven estimators 13