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何が知りたいのか?〜因果推論:効果の定義、 Estimandの前振り〜(医学統計学・疫学セミナー)

何が知りたいのか?〜因果推論:効果の定義、 Estimandの前振り〜(医学統計学・疫学セミナー)

ある処置がアウトカムに影響あるか知りたいときに、多変量解析よりも傾向スコア使う方が良いんでしょ?という問いはよく聞きます。
この動画では、①医学研究を分類し因果推論に着目、②因果推論における効果を定義、③関連との違い、④効果を推定する方法を説明し、どの手法でも効果は推定できること、しかし、効果の種類が違うことまでをお話しします。

Shuntaro Sato

June 19, 2021
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  1. Կ͕஌Γ͍͔ͨʁ
    ҼՌਪ࿦ɿޮՌͷఆٛɺ&TUJNBOEͷલৼΓ
    ࠤ౻ढ़ଠ࿕
    ௕࡚େֶපӃྟচݚڀηϯλʔ
    TIVOUBSPTBUP!OBHBTBLJVBDKQ

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  2. 2
    ϩʔυϚοϓ
    ݚڀͷ෼ྨ
    w ؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧ
    w ҼՌਪ࿦
    w ༧ଌ
    ޮՌ
    ൓ࣄ࣮
    ؔ࿈
    ަབྷ
    ਪఆ͍ͨ͠΋ͷʢ&TUJNBOEʣ
    ʢपลޮՌʣ
    ৚݅෇͖ޮՌ
    ଟมྔղੳ
    ඪ४Խ
    ܏޲είΞϚονϯά
    ٯ֬཰ॏΈ෇͚
    "5&
    "55
    ˞ղੳํ๏ͷखॱ͸આ໌͠·ͤΜ

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  3. 3
    ϩʔυϚοϓ
    ݚڀͷ෼ྨ
    w ؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧ
    w ҼՌਪ࿦
    w ༧ଌ
    ޮՌ
    ൓ࣄ࣮
    ؔ࿈
    ަབྷ
    ਪఆ͍ͨ͠΋ͷʢ&TUJNBOEʣ
    ʢपลޮՌʣ
    ৚݅෇͖ޮՌ
    ଟมྔղੳ
    ඪ४Խ
    ܏޲είΞϚονϯά
    ٯ֬཰ॏΈ෇͚
    "5&
    "55

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  4. ݚڀͷ෼ྨ
    4
    %FTDSJQUJPO
    &YQMPSJOH
    BTTPDJBUJPOT
    1SFEJDUJPO $BVTBMJOGFSFODF
    %JBHOPTUJD
    QFSGPSNBODF
    FWBMVBUJPO
    ʢهड़ʣ ʢؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧʣ ʢ༧ଌʣ ʢҼՌਪ࿦ʣ ʢ਍அͷੑೳධՁʣ
    ม਺͸ͲΜͳ෼෍͔ʁ
    Ͳͷม਺͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ
    ؔ࿈͢Δ͔ʁ
    Ξ΢τΧϜΛ༧ଌ͢Δ
    ॲஔ͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ

    Өڹ͢Δ͔ʁ
    ೚ҙͷධՁํ๏ͷ

    ਍அੑೳ͸ʁ
    w )FSOÂO." )TV+ )FBMZ#"4FDPOE$IBODFUP(FU$BVTBM*OGFSFODF3JHIU"$MBTTJ
    fi
    DBUJPOPG%BUB4DJFODF5BTLT$IBODF+BO

    r
    w 7JUUJOHIP
    ff
    & (MJEEFO%7 4IJCPTLJ4$ .D$VMMPDI$&3FHSFTTJPONFUIPETJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTMJOFBS MPHJTUJD TVSWJWBM BOESFQFBUFENFBTVSFT
    NPEFMT4QSJOHFS4DJFODF#VTJOFTT.FEJB

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  5. ҼՌਪ࿦ʢ$BVTBMJOGFSFODFʣ
    5
    " :

    w ॲஔ"͸ɺΞ΢τΧϜ:ʹӨڹ͢Δ͔ʁ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜ:ʹର͢Δॲஔ"ͷޮՌ͸ʁ
    ݪҼ
    5SFBUNFOUʢॲஔʣ
    *OUFSWFOUJPOʢհೖʣ
    &YQPTVSFʢമ࿐ʣ
    ݁Ռ
    0VUDPNF

    ʢΞ΢τΧϜʣ

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  6. ݚڀͷ෼ྨ
    6
    %FTDSJQUJPO
    &YQMPSJOH
    BTTPDJBUJPOT
    1SFEJDUJPO $BVTBMJOGFSFODF
    %JBHOPTUJD
    QFSGPSNBODF
    FWBMVBUJPO
    ʢهड़ʣ ʢؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧʣ ʢ༧ଌʣ ʢҼՌਪ࿦ʣ ʢ਍அͷੑೳධՁʣ
    ม਺͸ͲΜͳ෼෍͔ʁ
    Ͳͷม਺͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ
    ؔ࿈͢Δ͔ʁ
    Ξ΢τΧϜΛ༧ଌ͢Δ
    ॲஔ͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ

    Өڹ͢Δ͔ʁ
    ೚ҙͷධՁํ๏ͷ

    ਍அੑೳ͸ʁ
    w )FSOÂO." )TV+ )FBMZ#"4FDPOE$IBODFUP(FU$BVTBM*OGFSFODF3JHIU"$MBTTJ
    fi
    DBUJPOPG%BUB4DJFODF5BTLT$IBODF+BO

    r
    w 7JUUJOHIP
    ff
    & (MJEEFO%7 4IJCPTLJ4$ .D$VMMPDI$&3FHSFTTJPONFUIPETJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTMJOFBS MPHJTUJD TVSWJWBM BOESFQFBUFENFBTVSFT
    NPEFMT4QSJOHFS4DJFODF#VTJOFTT.FEJB

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  7. 7
    ଟมྔղੳ΍
    ܏޲είΞϚονϯά΍
    ٯ֬཰ॏΈ෇͚Ͱ
    ࠩʢൺʣͱ৴པ۠ؒΛࢉग़͠·ͨ͠
    ަབྷΛ੍ޚ͢ΔͨΊʹ

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  8. 8
    ͜ΕͰ׬ᘳʁ

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  9. 9
    ҼՌਪ࿦ͯ͠ΔΜ͔ͩΒɺަབྷΛ੍ޚ͢Δͷ͸౰ͨΓલ
    Ұาઌ΁ʂ

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  10. 10
    ϩʔυϚοϓ
    ݚڀͷ෼ྨ
    w ؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧ
    w ҼՌਪ࿦
    w ༧ଌ
    ޮՌ
    ൓ࣄ࣮
    ؔ࿈
    ަབྷ
    ਪఆ͍ͨ͠΋ͷʢ&TUJNBOEʣ
    ʢपลޮՌʣ
    ৚݅෇͖ޮՌ
    ଟมྔղੳ
    ඪ४Խ
    ܏޲είΞϚονϯά
    ٯ֬཰ॏΈ෇͚
    "5&
    "55

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  11. 11
    ·ͣ͸ޮՌͷఆ͔ٛΒ

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  12. ݸମʹ͓͚ΔޮՌ
    12
    ࣌ؒ
    ˆ ˆ
    ˆ ˆ
    ࣏ྍ͢Δ

    ʢBʣ
    λΠϜϚγϯ
    ࣏ྍ͠ͳ͍

    ʢBʣ
    Ya=1 = 36
    Ya=0 = 39
    Ya=1 − Ya=0 = − 3
    ॲஔޮՌʢ5SFBUNFOUF
    ff
    FDUʣ
    ࣄ࣮
    ൓ࣄ࣮
    જࡏΞ΢τΧϜʢ1PUFOUJBMPVUDPNFʣ
    ൓ࣄ࣮Ξ΢τΧϜʢ$PVOUFSGBDUVBMPVUDPNFʣ
    ࣌ؒޙ

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  13. 13
    ൓ࣄ࣮ͱ͸ɺ

    ڵຯͷ͋ΔॲஔҎ֎͸ಉ͡ੈք

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  14. ूஂʹ͓͚ΔޮՌ
    14
    ࣌ؒ
    ˆ ฏۉˆ
    ˆ ฏۉˆ
    ࣏ྍ͢Δ

    ʢBʣ
    λΠϜϚγϯ
    ࣏ྍ͠ͳ͍

    ʢBʣ
    E[Ya=1] = 36
    E[Ya=0] = 39
    E[Ya=1] − E[Ya=0] = − 3
    ฏۉॲஔޮՌ

    ʢ"WFSBHFUSFBUNFOUF
    ff
    FDUʣ
    ࣄ࣮
    ൓ࣄ࣮
    ࣌ؒޙ
    &<>͸ظ଴஋ͷܭࢉ
    ࿈ଓσʔλͷظ଴஋͸ฏۉ஋
    ஋σʔλͷظ଴஋͸ׂ߹

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  15. 15
    ޮՌͱؔ࿈ͷҧ͍
    ݚڀର৅ूஂ
    ॲஔ͋Γ ॲஔͳ͠
    ޮՌʢ&
    ff
    FDUʣ ؔ࿈ʢ"TTPDJBUJPOʣ
    ूஂશମ͕ॲஔ͋Γͷ৔߹ͱ

    ॲஔͳ͠ͷ৔߹Λൺֱ
    ॲஔ͋Γͷूஂͱ

    ॲஔͳ͠ͷूஂΛൺֱ
    )FSOÂO." 3PCJOT+.
    $BVTBM*OGFSFODF8IBU*G#PDB3BUPO$IBQNBO)BMM$3$'JHVSFΛվม

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  16. 16
    ؍࡯Ͱ͖Δσʔλͱ؍࡯Ͱ͖ͳ͍σʔλ
    *% ࣏ྍʢ"ʣ :










    Ya=1 Ya=0 Y|A = 1 Y|A = 0
    ؍࡯Ͱ͖ͳ͍σʔλ
    ؍࡯Ͱ͖

    ͳ͍σʔλ
    ؍࡯Ͱ͖

    ͳ͍σʔλ

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  17. 17
    ܭࢉͰ͖Δ஋ͱܭࢉͰ͖ͳ͍஋
    *% ࣏ྍʢ"ʣ :










    Ya=1 Ya=0 Y|A = 1 Y|A = 0
    E[Ya=1] E[Ya=0]
    E[Y|A = 1] E[Y|A = 0]
    ܭࢉͰ͖Δ
    ܭࢉͰ͖ͳ͍
    ܈͝ͱͷฏۉ

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  18. 18
    ޮՌ͸ܭࢉͰ͖ͳ͍
    ఘΊΔͷ͔ʁ

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  19. 19
    ؔ࿈ΛޮՌʹ͚ۙͮΔ
    ޮՌʢ&
    ff
    FDUʣ ؔ࿈ʢ"TTPDJBUJPOʣ
    ूஂશମ͕ॲஔ͋Γͷ৔߹ͱ

    ॲஔͳ͠ͷ৔߹Λൺֱ
    ॲஔ͋Γͷूஂͱ

    ॲஔͳ͠ͷूஂΛൺֱ
    ͜ͷσʔλ͸ͳ͍ ͜ͷσʔλ͸͋Δ
    ؔ࿈
    ޮՌ
    ݚڀσβΠϯ΍౷ܭղੳख๏Λ޻෉ͯ͠ܭࢉ͢Δ

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  20. ޮՌΛܭࢉ͢ΔͨΊͷ৚݅
    20
    w $POTJTUFODZ
    w &YDIBOHFBCJMJUZ
    w 1PTJUJWJUZ
    ˞͜͜Ͱͷ$POTJTUFODZ͸౷ܭֶͰͷ$POTJTUFODZʢҰகੑʣͱ͸ҟͳΓ·͢
    ˞ͦΕͧΕͷ৚݅ͷৄ͍͠આ໌͸ׂѪ͠·͢
    ަབྷΛͳ͘͢͜ͱ͕࠷ॏཁ

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  21. ަབྷʢ$POGPVOEJOHʣ
    21
    - " :
    ॲஔ"ͱΞ΢τΧϜ:ͷڞ௨ݪҼʢ$PNNPODBVTFʣʹΑΓੜ͡ΔόΠΞε
    ަབྷ͋Γ
    - " : ޻෉͢Δͱަབྷͳ͠
    $PNNPO

    DBVTF
    ࢛֯͸

    ৚݅෇͚Λද͢
    #MPDL
    #MPDL

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  22. 22
    ޮՌΛܭࢉ͢ΔͨΊʹ޻෉͢Δखஈ
    w ϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧ
    w ࠩ෼ͷࠩ෼
    w ճؼෆ࿈ଓσβΠϯ
    w ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ
    ݚڀσβΠϯ
    w ʢҰൠతͳʣଟมྔղੳ
    w ඪ४Խ
    w ܏޲είΞΛ࢖ͬͨํ๏
    w Ϛονϯά
    w ٯ֬཰ॏΈ෇͚ʢ*18ʣ
    w ૢ࡞ม਺๏
    ౷ܭղੳख๏

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  23. 23
    ղੳํ๏ʹ༏ྼ͸͋Δʁ
    ϩδεςΟοΫճؼ෼ੳΈ͍ͨͳ

    ଟมྔղੳΑΓɺ

    ܏޲είΞ࢖ͬͯٻΊͨޮՌͷํ͕ྑ͍ΜͰ͠ΐʁ
    w ʢҰൠతͳʣଟมྔղੳ
    w ඪ४Խ
    w ܏޲είΞΛ࢖ͬͨํ๏
    w Ϛονϯά
    w ٯ֬཰ॏΈ෇͚ʢ*18ʣ
    w ૢ࡞ม਺๏

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  24. 24
    ަབྷΛਖ਼੍͘͠ޚ͢Ε͹

    Ͳͷղੳख๏Ͱ΋ޮՌ͸ਪఆͰ͖Δ
    ޮՌͷ
    छྨ͕ҧ͏

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  25. 25
    Կ͕஌Γ͍ͨͷ͔ʁ
    &TUJNBOE

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  26. 26
    ϩʔυϚοϓ
    ݚڀͷ෼ྨ
    w ؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧ
    w ҼՌਪ࿦
    w ༧ଌ
    ޮՌ
    ൓ࣄ࣮
    ؔ࿈
    ަབྷ
    ਪఆ͍ͨ͠΋ͷʢ&TUJNBOEʣ
    ʢपลޮՌʣ
    ৚݅෇͖ޮՌ
    ଟมྔղੳ
    ඪ४Խ
    ܏޲είΞϚονϯά
    ٯ֬཰ॏΈ෇͚
    "5&
    "55

    View full-size slide