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Target trial emulationの概要

Shuntaro Sato
December 17, 2023

Target trial emulationの概要

目標
①Target trial emulationのコンセプトを知る
② Target trial emulationを使っている論文を読めるようになる

Shuntaro Sato

December 17, 2023
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  1. ຊ೔ͷྲྀΕ 2 w ҼՌޮՌͷ͓͞Β͍ w ؍࡯ݚڀͰੜ͡ΔόΠΞε w ަབྷ w ෆࢮ࣌ؒόΠΞε

    w %FQMFUJPOPGTVTDFQUJCMFTCJBT w طଘॲํऀόΠΞε w 5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPO w 5JNF[FSP w *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUޮՌɺ1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ w ࣮ྫ w Ͳͷ͙Β͍࢖ΘΕ͍ͯΔ͔ʁ
  2. 5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPOͷ֓ཁ 3 3FTFBSDI2VFTUJPO ϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧʢ3$5ʣ ؍࡯ݚڀ ࣮ࡍ͸࣮ࢪͰ͖ͳ͍ w ద֨ج४ w Ξ΢τΧϜ

    w հೖʢରরʣ w ஌Γ͍ͨޮՌ w ϑΥϩʔͷํ๏ ΋͠3$5ΛσβΠϯ͢ΔͳΒ Ͳ͏૊Ή͔ʁ w ద֨ج४ w Ξ΢τΧϜ w հೖʢରরʣ w ஌Γ͍ͨޮՌ w ϑΥϩʔͷํ๏ 5BSHFUUSJBM ࢖͑ΔσʔλͰߟ͑Δ &NVMBUJPO ໛฿͢Δ
  3. ҩֶݚڀͷ෼ྨ 5 %FTDSJQUJPO &YQMPSJOH BTTPDJBUJPOT 1SFEJDUJPO $BVTBMJOGFSFODF %JBHOPTUJD QFSGPSNBODF FWBMVBUJPO

    هड़ ؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧ ༧ଌ ҼՌਪ࿦ ਍அͷੑೳධՁ ม਺͸ͲΜͳ෼෍͔ʁ Ͳͷม਺͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ ؔ࿈͢Δ͔ʁ Ξ΢τΧϜΛ༧ଌ͢Δ ॲஔ͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ Өڹ͢Δ͔ʁ ೚ҙͷධՁํ๏ͷ ਍அੑೳ͸ʁ w )FSOÂO." )TV+ )FBMZ#"4FDPOE$IBODFUP(FU$BVTBM*OGFSFODF3JHIU"$MBTTJ fi DBUJPOPG%BUB4DJFODF5BTLT$IBODF+BO  r w 7JUUJOHIP ff & (MJEEFO%7 4IJCPTLJ4$ .D$VMMPDI$&3FHSFTTJPONFUIPETJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTMJOFBS MPHJTUJD TVSWJWBM BOESFQFBUFENFBTVSFTNPEFMT4QSJOHFS4DJFODF#VTJOFTT .FEJB ຊ೔ѻ͏ͷ͸ ͜͜
  4. ҼՌਪ࿦ʢ$BVTBMJOGFSFODFʣ 6 " :   w ॲஔ"͸ɺΞ΢τΧϜ:ʹӨڹ͢Δ͔ʁ w Ξ΢τΧϜ:ʹର͢Δॲஔ"ͷޮՌ͸ʁ

    ݪҼ ॲஔʢ5SFBUNFOUʣ հೖʢ*OUFSWFOUJPOʣ മ࿐ʢ&YQPTVSFʣ ݁Ռ Ξ΢τΧϜʢ0VUDPNFʣ
  5. 3$5ͱ؍࡯ݚڀͷ݁Ռʹҧ͍͕͋Δ 9 ຫੑਛଁױऀʹର͢Δɺಁੳͷ։࢝࣌ظ͸༧ޙʹӨڹ͢Δ͔ʁ 3$5ʢ*%&"-ࢼݧʣ ؍࡯ݚڀ $PPQFS #" #SBOMFZ 1 #VMGPOF

    - $PMMJOT +' $SBJH +$ 'SBFOLFM .# )BSSJT  " +PIOTPO %8 ,FTTFMIVU + -J ++ -VYUPO ( 1JMNPSF " 5JMMFS %+ )BSSJT % $ 1PMMPDL $" *%&"-4UVEZ  "SBOEPNJ[FE DPOUSPMMFEUSJBMPGFBSMZWFSTVT MBUFJOJUJBUJPOPGEJBMZTJT5IF/FX&OHMBOE+PVSOBMPG.FEJDJOF   rͷ 'JHVSF# ༧ޙʹࠩ͸ͳ͍ ޙظ։࢝ͷํ͕༧ޙ͕ྑ͍ 4VTBOUJUBQIPOH 1 "MUBNJNJ 4 "TILBS . #BML &. 4UFM 74 8SJHIU 4 +BCFS  #-  ('3BUJOJUJBUJPOPGEJBMZTJTBOENPSUBMJUZJO$,%BNFUBBOBMZTJT "NFSJDBO+PVSOBMPG,JEOFZ%JTFBTFT5IF0 ff i DJBM+PVSOBMPGUIF/BUJPOBM,JEOFZ 'PVOEBUJPO   rͷ'JHVSF
  6. Ͳͷ͘Β͍ͷݚڀͰόΠΞε͕ੜ͍ͯ͡Δ͔ʁ 15 #ZLPW , 1BUPSOP & %`"OESFB & )F .

    -FF ) (SB ff +4 'SBOLMJO +.  1SFWBMFODFPG"WPJEBCMFBOE#JBT*O fl JDUJOH.FUIPEPMPHJDBM1JUGBMMTJO3FBM8PSME4UVEJFTPG .FEJDBUJPO4BGFUZBOE& ff FDUJWFOFTT$MJOJDBM1IBSNBDPMPHZBOE5IFSBQFVUJDT   rͷ5BCMFΛվม
  7. 5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPOͷ֓ཁ 18 3FTFBSDI2VFTUJPO ϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧʢ3$5ʣ ؍࡯ݚڀ ࣮ࡍ͸࣮ࢪͰ͖ͳ͍ w ద֨ج४ w Ξ΢τΧϜ

    w հೖʢରরʣ w ஌Γ͍ͨޮՌ w ϑΥϩʔͷํ๏ ΋͠3$5ΛσβΠϯ͢ΔͳΒ Ͳ͏૊Ή͔ʁ w ద֨ج४ w Ξ΢τΧϜ w հೖʢରরʣ w ஌Γ͍ͨޮՌ w ϑΥϩʔͷํ๏ 5BSHFUUSJBM ࢖͑ΔσʔλͰߟ͑Δ &NVMBUJPO ໛฿͢Δ
  8. Ͳ͏͍͏σʔλΛ࢖͏ͷ͔ʁ 19 ݚڀͷͨΊʹߏங͞Εͨσʔλϕʔε ݚڀͷͨΊʹߏங͞Εͳ͔ͬͨσʔλϕʔε w Ӹֶݚڀσʔλ w ױऀϨδετϦσʔλ w όΠΦόϯΫ

    w ిࢠΧϧςσʔλ w ߦ੓σʔλ w ࣏ࣗମ͕อ༗͢Δݸਓͷଐੑσʔλ w อݥ੥ٻσʔλ w σʔλͷਫ਼౓͸ߴ͍ w ଌఆޡ͕ࠩগͳ͍ w ݚڀͷͨΊʹߏங͞Εͳ͔ͬͨ σʔλϕʔεͱൺֱͯ͠ɺσʔ λྔ͕গͳ͍ w σʔλྔ͕গͳ͍ w ܽଌ͕ଟ͍ w ଌఆޡࠩ΋͋Δ͔΋͠Εͳ͍ w ࢖͑Δσʔλͷछྨ΋੍ݶ͞ΕΔ͔΋͠Ε ͳ͍
  9. 5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPOͷϑϨʔϜϫʔΫ 20 )FSOÂO." 3PCJOT+.6TJOH#JH%BUBUP&NVMBUFB5BSHFU5SJBM8IFOB3BOEPNJ[FE5SJBM*T/PU"WBJMBCMF"N+&QJEFNJPM"QS  r ཁૉ 5BSHFUUSJBMͰͷܭը ؍࡯ݚڀσʔλͰ໛฿͢ΔͳΒ ద֨ج४

    ʢ&MJHJCJMJUZDSJUFSJBʣ ࣏ྍܭը ʢ5SFBUNFOUTUSBUFHJFTʣ ࣏ྍׂΓ౰ͯ ʢ"TTJHONFOUQSPDFEVSFTʣ ؍࡯ظؒ ʢ'PMMPXVQQFSJPEʣ Ξ΢τΧϜ ʢ0VUDPNFʣ ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔҼՌޮՌ ʢ$BVTBMDPOUSBTUTPGJOUFSFTUʣ ղੳܭը ʢ"OBMZTJTQMBOʣ w ໛฿͢Δ3$5͕͋ΔͳΒɺ ͦͷ3$5ͷ৘ใΛهࡌ͢Δ w ͳ͍ͳΒɺ ߟ͑ͯ৘ใΛهࡌ͢Δ w 5BSHFUUSJBMʹ४ͯ͡ هࡌ͢Δ w ར༻Ͱ͖ΔσʔλͰɺ ՄೳͳݶΓࣅΔΑ͏ʹ͢Δ
  10. 5JNF[FSPɿ5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPOͷΩʔϙΠϯτ 21 R 3$5 ؍࡯ݚڀ 5JNF[FSP w ద֨ج४ͷ൑அ w ܈ͷܾఆ

    w ؍࡯։࢝ ؍࡯։࢝ w ద֨ج४ͷ൑அ w ܈ͷܾఆ w ద֨ج४ͷ൑அ w ܈ͷܾఆ w ؍࡯։࢝ *NNPSUBMUJNFCJBT %FQMFUJPOPGTVTDFQUJCMFTCJBT
  11. ؍࡯ݚڀͰ΋5JNF[FSPΛఆΊΔ 22 ؍࡯։࢝ w ద֨ج४ͷ൑அ w ܈ͷܾఆ w ద֨ج४ͷ൑அ w

    ܈ͷܾఆ w ؍࡯։࢝ 5JNF[FSP w ద֨ج४ͷ൑அ w ܈ͷܾఆ w ؍࡯։࢝ w 5JNF[FSPΛἧ͑ΒΕͳ͍৔߹΋͋Δ w σβΠϯ΍ղੳํ๏Ͱରॲ *NNPSUBMUJNFCJBT %FQMFUJPOPGTVTDFQUJCMFTCJBT
  12. 5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPOͷྫʢʣ 23 'V &- &WBOT . $BSSFSP ++ 1VUUFS )

    $MBTF $. $BTLFZ '+ 4[ZND[BL . 5PSJOP $ $IFTOBZF /$ +BHFS ,+ 8BOOFS $ %FLLFS '8 WBO%JFQFO .  5JNJOH PGEJBMZTJTJOJUJBUJPOUPSFEVDFNPSUBMJUZBOEDBSEJPWBTDVMBSFWFOUTJOBEWBODFEDISPOJDLJEOFZEJTFBTFOBUJPOXJEFDPIPSUTUVEZ#.+  Fͷ4VQQMFNFOUBSZ5BCMF" ཁૉ 5BSHFUUSJBMͰͷܭը ؍࡯ݚڀσʔλͰ໛฿͢ΔͳΒ ద֨ج४ w ࡀҎ্ w F('3͕N-NJON 5BSHFUUSJBMͱಉ͡ ࣏ྍܭը ಁੳͷಋೖ࣌ظΛɺF('3Λ͔ΒͷൣғΛ NࠁΈͰͷ۠෼ʹ෼͚Δ 5BSHFUUSJBMͱಉ͡ ࣏ྍׂΓ౰ͯ ϥϯμϜׂ෇͚ ಛघͳղੳख๏ʢDMPOJOHʣʹΑΓϥϯμϜԽΛ໛฿ ؍࡯ظؒ ϥϯμϜԽ࣌఺Ͱ؍࡯Λ։࢝͠ɺࢮ๢ɺ৺݂؅Πϕϯ τɺ೥݄·Ͱɺ·ͨ͸೥ؒ௥੻ͷ͍ͣΕ͔ૣ ͍࣌఺Ͱऴྃ͢Δ ͢΂ͯͷద֨ج४Λຬ͔ͨͯ͠Βɺ௥੻։࢝ Ξ΢τΧϜ શࢮ๢ɺओཁ༗֐৺݂؅Πϕϯτ w UBSHFUUSJBMͱಉ༷ w ৺݂؅Πϕϯτ͸*$%ίʔυͰఆٛ ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔҼՌޮՌ *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUޮՌɺ1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ 1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ ղੳܭը ͦΕͧΕͷޮՌʹదͨ͠ղੳํ๏ ޮՌʹదͨ͠౷ܭղੳख๏ *%&"-ࢼݧΛΑΓৄࡉʹͨ͠΋ͷΛ5BSHFUUSJBMʹ͢Δ
  13. ஌Γ͍ͨޮՌ͸Կʁ 25 3FTFBSDI2VFTUJPO ܕ౶೘පױऀʹ͓͚ΔୈҰબ୒ༀͱͯ͠ɺ 4(-5્֐ༀͱϝτϗϧϛϯ͸ͲͪΒ͕ྑ͍͔ʁ ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ

    4(-5્֐ༀ ࣏ྍ͕ܧଓతʹ࢖ΘΕͨͱ͖ͷޮՌ ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ ࣏ྍΛ։࢝ͨ͠ͱ͖ͷޮՌ ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ
  14. *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUޮՌͱ1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ 26 ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ ࣏ྍ͕ܧଓతʹ࢖ΘΕͨͱ͖ͷޮՌ ϝτϗϧϛϯ

    4(-5્֐ༀ ࣏ྍΛ։࢝ͨ͠ͱ͖ͷޮՌ ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ 1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUޮՌ *55ޮՌ ୯ʹ࣏ྍޮՌͱ͍͏ͱ͖͸ ͪ͜ΒΛΠϝʔδ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ͕ଟ͍
  15. ཧ૝తͳϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧͱ*55ͷݪଇ 27 ױऀ ױऀ ױऀ #BTFMJOF N w ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕ࣏ͨྍΛ९क͠ w

    ୤མ͕ͳ͘ w ೋॏ໡ݕ͕อͨΕΔ ׂΓ෇͚ͨ ࣏ྍ Ξ΢τΧϜ ަབྷҼࢠ ױऀ N N R ৽ن ࣏ྍ ϓϥ ηϘ ࣏ྍΛׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨױऀ͕ɺ 3$5 ະଌఆɾະ஌ͷҼࢠ΋ؚΉ ࣏ྍΛϥϯμϜʹׂΓ෇͚Δ͜ͱͰɺ࣏ྍͱަབྷҼࢠͱͷؔ܎Λ੾Δ *55ूஂʹ͓͚Δɺ Ξ΢τΧϜʹର͢ΔׂΓ෇͚࣏ͨྍͷޮՌ͸ɺ όΠΞεΛ͏͚ͳ͍ ׂΓ෇͚ͨूஂΛ͢΂ͯղੳʹ࢖͏ˠ*55 *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBU ͷݪଇ ަབྷͷ͜ͱ͸ߟ͑ͣɺൺֱత୯७ͳղੳͰਪఆͰ͖Δ *55෼ੳ
  16. *55ޮՌɿ*55෼ੳ͔Βਪఆ͞ΕΔޮՌ 28 w ׂΓ෇͚࣏ͨྍ͕ɺෆ९क΍୤མʹΑΓ࣮ࡍͷ࣏ྍͱҟͳ͍ͬͯͨ৔߹Ͱ΋ɺ ׂΓ෇͚࣏ͨྍͷޮՌΛਪఆ͍ͯ͠Δ w ࣮ࡍͷݱ৔Ͱ͸ɺ९कঢ়گ͕ѱ͔ͬͨΓɺ࣏ྍΛଓ͚ΒΕͳ͍ױऀ͸Ұఆ਺͍Δ ͜ΕΒΛड͚ೖΕΔ*55ޮՌ͸ɺ࣮ྟচͰͷײ֮ʹ͋ͯ͸·ΔޮՌͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ͔΋͠Εͳ͍ ׂΓ෇͚ͨ ࣏ྍ

    ࣮ࡍͷ࣏ྍ Ξ΢τΧϜ ަབྷҼࢠ 㱠 ױऀ ױऀ ױऀ #BTFMJOF N ױऀ N N ৽ن ࣏ྍ ϓϥ ηϘ ୤མ ৽ن࣏ྍ )FSOÂO." )FSOÂOEF[%ÍB[4#FZPOEUIFJOUFOUJPOUPUSFBUJODPNQBSBUJWFF ff FDUJWFOFTTSFTFBSDI$MJO5SJBMT'FC  r
  17. ؍࡯ݚڀͰ͸ɺͲͷΑ͏ʹ*55ޮՌΛਪఆ͢Δ͔ʁ 29 5JNF[FSPͰ ܾΊ࣏ͨྍ Ξ΢τΧϜ ަབྷҼࢠ ʢϕʔεϥΠϯʣ ϕʔεϥΠϯʢ5JNF[FSP·Ͱʹܾ·ΔʣͷަབྷҼࢠͰௐ੔ 5JNF[FSPͰ ܾΊ࣏ͨྍ

    Ξ΢τΧϜ ަབྷҼࢠ ʢϕʔεϥΠϯʣ 5JNF[FSPͰ ܾΊ࣏ͨྍ Ξ΢τΧϜ ަབྷҼࢠ ʢϕʔεϥΠϯʣ ௐ੔ ϚονϯάɺॏΈ෇͚
  18. ֤ޮՌͷର৅ूஂɺൺֱ͢Δ܈ɺޮՌͷҙຯ 31 *55ޮՌ 1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ ղੳର৅ूஂ ׂΓ෇͚ͨूஂ ׂΓ෇͚ͨूஂ ൺֱ͢Δ܈ ׂΓ෇͚ͨ܈ ࣮ࡍʹ͓͜ͳ࣏ͬͨྍʹैͬͨ܈

    ޮՌͷҙຯ ׂΓ෇͚࣏ͨྍͷޮՌ ͢΂ͯͷ৘ใΛ࢖࣏ͬͨྍͷޮՌ खज़ ༀࡎ ैདྷ࣏ྍ खज़ ༀࡎ ैདྷ࣏ྍ खज़ ༀࡎ ैདྷ࣏ྍ खज़܈ ༀࡎ܈ खज़ ༀࡎ ैདྷ࣏ྍ खज़ ༀࡎ ैདྷ࣏ྍ खज़ ༀࡎ ैདྷ࣏ྍ खज़܈ ༀࡎ܈ ׂΓ෇͚ͨ ࣏ྍ ࣮ࡍͷ࣏ྍ ൺֱ͢Δ܈ ׂΓ෇͚ͨ ࣏ྍ ࣮ࡍͷ࣏ྍ ൺֱ͢Δ܈
  19. ஌Γ͍ͨޮՌΛܾΊΔͱɺऩू͢Δσʔλ͢΂͖σʔλ΋ܾ·Δ 35 ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ 1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ ϝτϗϧϛϯ

    4(-5્֐ༀ *55ޮՌ ܕ%. ϝτϗϧϛϯ 4(-5્֐ༀ ܧଓͯ͠౤༩͞Ε͍ͯΕ͹ɺ5JNF[FSP͚ͩͰ΋ྑ͍͕ ९कঢ়گ͸஌Γ͍ͨ 5JNF[FSPޙͷ৘ใ΋ඞཁ
  20. 5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPOͷϑϨʔϜϫʔΫ࠶ܝ 37 'V &- &WBOT . $BSSFSP ++ 1VUUFS )

    $MBTF $. $BTLFZ '+ 4[ZND[BL . 5PSJOP $ $IFTOBZF /$ +BHFS ,+ 8BOOFS $ %FLLFS '8 WBO%JFQFO .  5JNJOHPG EJBMZTJTJOJUJBUJPOUPSFEVDFNPSUBMJUZBOEDBSEJPWBTDVMBSFWFOUTJOBEWBODFEDISPOJDLJEOFZEJTFBTFOBUJPOXJEFDPIPSUTUVEZ#.+  Fͷ4VQQMFNFOUBSZ5BCMF" ཁૉ 5BSHFUUSJBMͰͷܭը ؍࡯ݚڀσʔλͰ໛฿͢ΔͳΒ ద֨ج४ w ࡀҎ্ w F('3͕N-NJON 5BSHFUUSJBMͱಉ͡ ࣏ྍܭը ಁੳͷಋೖ࣌ظΛɺF('3Λ͔ΒͷൣғΛ NࠁΈͰͷ۠෼ʹ෼͚Δ 5BSHFUUSJBMͱಉ͡ ࣏ྍׂΓ౰ͯ ϥϯμϜׂ෇͚ ಛघͳղੳख๏ʢDMPOJOHʣʹΑΓϥϯμϜԽΛ໛฿ ؍࡯ظؒ ϥϯμϜԽ࣌఺Ͱ؍࡯Λ։࢝͠ɺࢮ๢ɺ৺݂؅Πϕϯ τɺ೥݄·Ͱɺ·ͨ͸೥ؒ௥੻ͷ͍ͣΕ͔ૣ ͍࣌఺Ͱऴྃ͢Δ ͢΂ͯͷద֨ج४Λຬ͔ͨͯ͠Βɺ௥੻։࢝ Ξ΢τΧϜ શࢮ๢ɺओཁ༗֐৺݂؅Πϕϯτ w UBSHFUUSJBMͱಉ༷ w ৺݂؅Πϕϯτ͸*$%ίʔυͰఆٛ ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔҼՌޮՌ *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUޮՌɺ1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ 1FSQSPUPDPMޮՌ ղੳܭը ͦΕͧΕͷޮՌʹదͨ͠ղੳํ๏ ޮՌʹదͨ͠౷ܭղੳख๏ ϑϨʔϜϫʔΫͷߏ੒ཁૉ͸͢΂ͯॏཁ
  21. 5BSHFUUSJBMFNVMBUJPOͷྫʢ$,%ʹର͢Δ3"4JͷޮՌʣ 38 ຫੑਛଁපױऀ ϨχϯɾΞϯδΦςϯγϯܥ્֐ༀʢ3"4JʣͷΈ Χϧγ΢Ϝ፰߅ༀʢ$$#ʣͷΈ ࠷௕೥ؒϑΥϩʔ Ξ΢τΧϜ w ਛ୅ସྍ๏ w

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