Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

対照群がない研究デザインで効果を推定する(時系列分断デザイン・自己対照研究デザイン)

Shuntaro Sato
October 14, 2021

 対照群がない研究デザインで効果を推定する(時系列分断デザイン・自己対照研究デザイン)

Shuntaro Sato

October 14, 2021
Tweet

More Decks by Shuntaro Sato

Other Decks in Research

Transcript

  1. ରর܈͕ͳ͍ݚڀσβΠϯͰޮՌΛਪఆ͢Δ
    ʢ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯɾࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯʣ
    ࠤ౻ढ़ଠ࿕
    ௕࡚େֶපӃྟচݚڀηϯλʔ
    TIVOUBSPTBUP!OBHBTBLJVBDKQ

    View Slide

  2. 2
    0WFSWJFX
    ूஂʹରͯ͠հೖΛ͓͜ͳͬͨͨΊɺ

    հೖΛड͚͍ͯͳ͍ର৅ऀ͕͍ͳ͍
    ͋Δूஂͷ͏ͪɺ

    ΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷσʔλ͔͠ͳ͍
    ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
    ରর܈ͷσʔλ͕ͳ͍ʂ

    View Slide

  3. ӸֶݚڀͷσβΠϯ

    View Slide

  4. ҩֶݚڀͷ෼ྨ
    4
    %FTDSJQUJPO
    &YQMPSJOH
    BTTPDJBUJPOT
    1SFEJDUJPO $BVTBMJOGFSFODF
    %JBHOPTUJD
    QFSGPSNBODF
    FWBMVBUJPO
    هड़ ؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧ ༧ଌ ҼՌਪ࿦ ਍அͷੑೳධՁ
    ม਺͸ͲΜͳ෼෍͔ʁ
    Ͳͷม਺͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ
    ؔ࿈͢Δ͔ʁ
    Ξ΢τΧϜΛ༧ଌ͢Δ
    ॲஔ͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ

    Өڹ͢Δ͔ʁ
    ೚ҙͷධՁํ๏ͷ

    ਍அੑೳ͸ʁ
    w )FSOÂO." )TV+ )FBMZ#"4FDPOE$IBODFUP(FU$BVTBM*OGFSFODF3JHIU"$MBTTJ
    fi
    DBUJPOPG%BUB4DJFODF5BTLT$IBODF+BO

    r
    w 7JUUJOHIP
    ff
    & (MJEEFO%7 4IJCPTLJ4$ .D$VMMPDI$&3FHSFTTJPONFUIPETJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTMJOFBS MPHJTUJD TVSWJWBM BOESFQFBUFENFBTVSFT
    NPEFMT4QSJOHFS4DJFODF#VTJOFTT.FEJB

    View Slide

  5. ҼՌਪ࿦
    5
    " :

    w ॲஔ"͸ɺΞ΢τΧϜ:ʹӨڹ͢Δ͔ʁ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜ:ʹର͢Δॲஔ"ͷޮՌ͸ʁ
    ݪҼ
    ॲஔʢ5SFBUNFOUʣ
    հೖʢ*OUFSWFOUJPOʣ
    മ࿐ʢ&YQPTVSFʣ
    ݁Ռ
    Ξ΢τΧϜʢ0VUDPNFʣ

    View Slide

  6. ӸֶݚڀσβΠϯͷ෼ྨ
    6
    ରর܈͕͋ΔσβΠϯ ରর܈͕ͳ͍σβΠϯ
    ఻౷తͳσβΠϯ
    w ϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧ
    w ԣஅݚڀ
    w ίϗʔτݚڀ
    w ঱ྫରরݚڀ
    w 1SF1PTUσβΠϯ
    ൃలతͳσβΠϯ
    w ࠩ෼ͷࠩσβΠϯ

    %J
    ff
    FSFODFJO%J
    ff
    FSFODF %J%

    w ճؼ෼அσβΠϯ
    w ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ
    w ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ

    View Slide

  7. ͳͥରর܈͕ඞཁ͔ʁ
    7
    WT WT
    1PQVMBUJPO
    ॲஔ͋Γ
    "
    ॲஔͳ͠
    "
    E[Ya=1] E[Ya=0] E[Y|A = 1] E[Y|A = 0]
    $BVTBMF
    ff
    FDU
    ҼՌޮՌ
    "TTPDJBUJPO
    ؔ࿈
    )FSOÂO." 3PCJOT+.
    $BVTBM*OGFSFODF8IBU*G#PDB3BUPO$IBQNBO)BMM$3$'JHVSFΛվม
    ͜͜ΛධՁ͢ΔͨΊʹ

    ରর܈͕ඞཁ

    View Slide

  8. ͳͥରর܈͕ͳ͍ͷ͔ʁᶃ
    8
    ࣌ؒ
    ېԎ৚ྫ
    ٸੑףಈ຺

    ൃ঱਺
    ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ




    ࠃຽʹର͢Δ੓ࡦ΍ྙཧతͳ໰୊ʹΑΓɺ
    ूஂશһʹରͯ͠հೖΛ͓͜ͳͬͨͨΊɺհೖΛड͚͍ͯͳ͍ର৅ΛઃఆͰ͖ͳ͍
    ͋Δूஂͷ͏ͪɼؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷ਺
    ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔհೖɿېԎ৚ྫ
    ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΠϕϯτɿٸੑףಈ຺ൃ঱

    View Slide

  9. ͳͥରর܈͕ͳ͍ͷ͔ʁᶄ
    9
    ΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷσʔλ͔͠ͳ͍
    w ϫΫνϯ઀छঢ়گ
    w എܠ৘ใ
    ϫΫνϯ઀छऀ




    ϫΫνϯ઀छ։࢝
    ෭൓Ԡ
    ෭൓Ԡ
    ෭൓Ԡ
    ࣌ؒ
    σʔλ͋Γ
    σʔλ͋Γ
    σʔλ͋Γ
    σʔλͳ͠
    σʔλͳ͠
    σʔλͳ͠
    σʔλͳ͠
    σʔλͳ͠
    ෭൓ԠͱͳΓ͑Δ

    Πϕϯτൃ঱ऀ
    /%#

    View Slide

  10. ूஂϨϕϧɾݸମϨϕϧ
    10
    ूஂʹରͯ͠հೖΛ͓͜ͳͬͨͨΊɺ

    հೖΛड͚͍ͯͳ͍ର৅ऀ͕͍ͳ͍
    ͋Δूஂͷ͏ͪɺ

    ΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷσʔλ͔͠ͳ͍
    ूஂϨϕϧͷ৘ใ
    ʢ͋Δ࣌ؒ୯ҐͰूܭ͞ΕΔͨΊɺ

    ݸମϨϕϧͷ৘ใ͕ෆ໌ʣ
    ݸମϨϕϧͷ৘ใ
    ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ

    ʢ෼அ࣌ܥྻσβΠϯʣ
    *OUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTEFTJHO

    *54

    ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
    4FMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHO

    4$$4

    View Slide

  11. ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ
    *OUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTEFTJHO *54

    View Slide

  12. *54͸ԿΛධՁ͢Δ͔ʁ
    12
    ूஂʹର͢Δհೖ
    -FWFMDIBOHFհೖʹΑΔٸܹͳมԽ
    հೖલͷτϨϯυʢ܏͖ʣ
    հೖޙͷ

    τϨϯυʢ܏͖ʣ
    4MPQFDIBOHFհೖʹΑΔτϨϯυͷมԽ
    ूஂʹର͢ΔհೖͷޮՌΛධՁ͢Δ

    View Slide

  13. *54ʹదͨ͠σʔλ͸ʁ
    13
    ूஂʹର͢Δհೖ
    ౳ִؒͳ࣌఺Ͱଌఆ͞Εͨσʔλ
    հೖ։࢝࣌఺͕ΫϦΞ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜม਺ͷई౓͸ɺҰൠԽઢܗϞσϧͰѻ͑Δई౓ͳΒ0,
    w قઅͷΑ͏ͳपظੑΛߟྀ͢ΔͨΊͷ࣌఺਺Ҏ্͕ਪ঑

    View Slide

  14. ંΕઢճؼϞσϧɿ*54Ͱར༻͢Δ౷ܭղੳख๏
    14
    ંΕઢճؼϞσϧ
    4FHNFOUFESFHSFTTJPONPEFM
    w հೖʹΑΔٸܹͳมԽ
    w հೖʹΑΔτϨϯυͷมԽ
    Yt
    = β0
    + β1
    T + β2
    Xt
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )Xt
    %BUF 5 9U 5J 55J
    9 :



    ʜ




    ʜ

    w 5ݚڀ։࢝࣌఺͔Βܦաͨ࣌ؒ͠
    w 9UհೖલޙΛද͢ࢦࣔม਺

    ʢհೖલɺհೖޙʣ
    w 5Jհೖ͕࢝·ͬͨ࣌఺
    ˞͜ͷϞσϧ͸ɺ࿦จʹΑͬͯؒҧ͍͕͋ΔͷͰ஫ҙ

    View Slide

  15. ંΕઢճؼϞσϧʹ͓͚Δύϥϝʔλͷղऍᶃ
    15
    ંΕઢճؼϞσϧ
    Yt
    = β0
    + β1
    T + β2
    Xt
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )Xt
    #BTFMJOFMFWFM
    E[Yt
    |T = 0, Xt
    = 0] = β0
    1SFTMPQF
    E[Yt+1
    − Yt
    |T ≤ Ti
    , Xt
    = 0] = E[Yt+1
    |T ≤ Ti
    , Xt
    = 0] − E[Yt
    |T ≤ Ti
    , Xt
    = 0]
    = {β0
    + β1
    (T + 1)} − {β0
    + β1
    T}
    = β1
    1PTUTMPQF
    E[Yt+1
    − Yt
    |T > Ti
    , Xt
    = 1] = {β0
    + β1
    (T + 1) + β2
    + β3
    (T + 1 − Ti
    )} − {β0
    + β1
    (T) + β2
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )}
    = β1
    + β3
    5
    հೖ
    :

    5


    9U
    5J
    55J
    9U
    β0
    β1
    β1
    + β3

    View Slide

  16. ંΕઢճؼϞσϧʹ͓͚Δύϥϝʔλͷղऍᶄ
    16
    ંΕઢճؼϞσϧ
    Yt
    = β0
    + β1
    T + β2
    Xt
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )Xt
    5
    հೖ
    :

    5


    9U
    5J
    55J
    9U
    4MPQFDIBOHF
    1PTUTMPQF − 1SFTMPQF = β1
    + β3
    − β1
    = β3
    -FWFMDIBOHF
    E[Yt
    |T = Ti
    , Xt
    = 1] − E[Yt
    |T = Ti
    , Xt
    = 0] = {β0
    + β1
    Ti
    + β2
    + β3
    (Ti
    − Ti
    )} − {β0
    + β1
    Ti
    }
    = β2
    β0
    β1
    β1
    + β3
    τϨϯυͷมԽ
    β3
    ϨϕϧͷมԽ
    β2

    View Slide

  17. *54σβΠϯͷ௕ॴ
    17
    ूஂʹର͢ΔհೖͷޮՌΛධՁͰ͖Δ
    ूஂϨϕϧͰมԽ͠ͳ͍ɾ؇΍͔ͳަབྷΛແࢹͰ͖Δ
    w հೖલޙͷτϨϯυ
    w հೖʹΑΔٸܹͳมԽ
    w հೖʹΑΔτϨϯυͷมԽ
    w ͜ΕΒΛਤࣔͰ͖Δ
    w ूஂ಺ͷ೥ྸͷ෼෍΍ܦࡁঢ়گͷ෼෍౳͸ɺಉ͡ूஂΛॎஅతʹ௥੻͢ΔͨΊແࢹͰ͖Δ

    View Slide

  18. *54σβΠϯͷ஫ҙ఺ᶃ
    18
    قઅੑͷ੍ޚ
    w ܦ࣌σʔλͰ͋ΔͨΊɺΞ΢τΧϜ͸قઅͷӨڹΛड͚͍ͯΔ͔΋͠Εͳ͍
    w ྫ͑͹ɺײછ঱ͷጶױऀ਺ΛධՁ͢Δ৔߹͸ɺقઅʹΑͬͯጶױऀ਺͸૿ݮ͢Δ
    w ϞσϧΛ޻෉͢Δ͜ͱͰ੍ޚ͢Δ
    w ݄ͷμϛʔσʔλΛೖΕΔ
    w ݄ʹରͯ͠ϑʔϦΤؔ਺΍εϓϥΠϯΛ͋ͯΔ
    ࣗݾ૬ؔͷ੍ޚ
    w ܦ࣌σʔλͰ͋ΔͨΊɺࣗݾ૬͕ؔ͋Δ͔΋͠Εͳ͍
    w ࣗݾ૬͕ؔ͋Δͱɺ4&ͷաখਪఆˠλΠϓ*Τϥʔ૿Ճ
    w #FSOBM
    ͸ɺʮقઅੑΛ੍ޚ͢Ε͹ɺࣗݾ૬ؔ΋੍ޚͰ͖ΔͩΖ͏ʯͱݴ͍ͬͯΔ͕ɺ

    ϞσϦϯάޙʹධՁ͢΂͖ʢFH%VSCJO8BUTPOUFTUʣ
    w "3*."Λ࢖͍ͬͯΔ࿦จ΋͋Δʢ·ͩΑ͘෼͔Βͳ͍ʣ

    View Slide

  19. *54σβΠϯͷ஫ҙ఺ᶄ
    19
    ࣌ؒґଘੑަབྷͷ੍ޚ
    w ݚڀظؒ಺ʹٸʹมԽ͢ΔΑ͏ͳม਺͸ϞσϧʹؚΊΔ΂͖
    w ͱ࿦จதͰΑ͘આ໌͕͋Δ͕ɺ

    ϨϕϧͷมԽΛޮՌࢦඪͱߟ͑ͯɺհೖͷ༗ແΛॲஔม਺ͱ͢Δͱɺॲஔม਺ʹӨڹΛ༩͑
    ͳ͚Ε͹ɺͦΕ͸ަབྷҼࢠͰ͸ͳ͍ͷͰ͸ʁ
    w ͨͩ͠ɺΞ΢τΧϜʹ͸Өڹ͢ΔͩΖ͏͔Βɺਪఆ஋ͷޮ཰ΛߴΊΔҙຯ͸͋Δ͸ͣ

    View Slide

  20. *54Λֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪ
    20
    w #FSOBM+- $VNNJOT4 (BTQBSSJOJ"*OUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTSFHSFTTJPOGPSUIFFWBMVBUJPOPGQVCMJDIFBMUI
    JOUFSWFOUJPOTBUVUPSJBM*OU+&QJEFNJPM'FC
    rɹʲ࠷΋Ҿ༻͞Ε͍ͯΔνϡʔτϦϧ࿦จɻϞσϧʹؒҧ
    ͍͕͋Δͷʹ஫ҙʳ
    w ,POUPQBOUFMJT& %PSBO5 4QSJOHBUF%" #VDIBO* 3FFWFT%3FHSFTTJPOCBTFERVBTJFYQFSJNFOUBMBQQSPBDIXIFO
    SBOEPNJTBUJPOJTOPUBOPQUJPOJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTBOBMZTJT#.++VOIɹʲ࣮ྫ΋ؚΊͯ୺తʹ·
    ͱΊͯ͋Δʳ
    w 9JBP) "VHVTUP0 8BHFOBBS#)3F
    fl
    FDUJPOPONPEFSONFUIPETBDPNNPOFSSPSJOUIFTFHNFOUFESFHSFTTJPO
    QBSBNFUFSJ[BUJPOPGJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTBOBMZTFT*OU+&QJEFNJPM+VM
    rʲਖ਼͍͠ϞσϦϯάΛղ
    આʳ
    w 8BHOFS", 4PVNFSBJ4# ;IBOH' 3PTT%FHOBO%4FHNFOUFESFHSFTTJPOBOBMZTJTPGJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTTUVEJFT
    JONFEJDBUJPOVTFSFTFBSDI+$MJO1IBSN5IFS"VH
    rɹʲগʑݹ͍͕ɺνϡʔτϦΞϧ࿦จͷ࣍ʹಡΉ
    ͷ͕ྑ͍ʳ
    w 5VSOFS4- ,BSBIBMJPT" 'PSCFT"# 5BMKBBSE. (SJNTIBX+. $IFOH"$ FUBM%FTJHODIBSBDUFSJTUJDTBOETUBUJTUJDBM
    NFUIPETVTFEJOJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTTUVEJFTFWBMVBUJOHQVCMJDIFBMUIJOUFSWFOUJPOTBSFWJFX+$MJO&QJEFNJPM
    +VOrɹʲ*54Λར༻͍ͯ͠ΔݚڀͷϨϏϡʔ࿦จʳ
    w )BCFS/" $MBSLF%FFMEFS& 4BMPNPO+" 'FMMFS" 4UVBSU&"$07*%1PMJDZ*NQBDU&WBMVBUJPO"HVJEFUPDPNNPO
    EFTJHOJTTVFT"N+&QJEFNJPM<*OUFSOFU>+VO"WBJMBCMFGSPNIUUQEYEPJPSHBKFLXBCɹʲ*54
    Λ$07*%ʹద༻͢Δ͍͞ͷ஫ҙ఺͕·ͱΊΒΕ͍ͯΔ࿦จʳ

    View Slide

  21. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
    4FMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHO 4$$4

    w ͜ͷσβΠϯ͸ɺʹ։࠵͞Εͨ3&26*3&ݚڀձͰൃද͞Εͨࢿྉ΍ٞ࿦Λࢀߟʹ͓ͯ͠Γ·͢ɻ
    w ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷ֓ཁ͸ɺٶ஍ल໌ઌੜʢઍ༿େֶʣͷεϥΠυΛࢀߟʢ࢖༻ͷྃঝऔಘࡁΈʣ
    w ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯͷ֓ཁ͸ɺ

    Ԟଜହ೭ઌੜʢҰൠࣾஂ๏ਓྟচӸֶݚڀਪਐػߏʣͷεϥΠυΛࢀߟʢ࢖༻ͷྃঝऔಘࡁΈʣ

    View Slide

  22. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
    22
    ϫΫνϯ઀छऀ




    ϫΫνϯ઀छ։࢝
    ෭൓Ԡ
    ෭൓Ԡ
    ෭൓Ԡ
    w ʢجຊతʹʣ

    Ξ΢τΧϜ͕ൃੜͨ͠ਓͷΈର৅ͱ͢Δ
    w ݚڀର৅ऀͱͳͬͨҰਓҰਓʹରͯ͠ɺ

    ͭҎ্ͷ࣌఺ΛݸਓͷதͰൺֱ͢Δ
    ࣌ؒ
    ݸମ಺Ͱൺֱޙɺ଍͠ࠐΜͰ

    ूஂͱͯ͠മ࿐ͱΞ΢τΧϜͷؔ࿈ΛධՁ͢Δ

    View Slide

  23. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷར఺
    23
    w ະଌఆɾະ஌ͷަབྷҼࢠͷҰ෦ΛݪཧతʹऔΓআ͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ
    w ݸମ಺Ͱൺֱ͢ΔͨΊ
    w ಛʹ%#ݚڀ͸ະଌఆͷަབྷҼࢠ͕ଟ͍ͨΊɺϝϦοτ͕େ͖͍
    ݸମ಺ͰมԽ͠ͳ͍Ҽࢠ ؍࡯ظؒͷؒʹݸମ಺ͰมԽ͠ͳ͍Ҽࢠ
    w ੑผ
    w Ҩ఻৘ใ
    w طԟ
    w ੜ׆श׳
    w ೥ྸʢ؍࡯ظؒʹΑΔʣ
    ࣌ؒʹґଘͯ͠มԽ͢ΔҼࢠ
    w ༀࡎͷ෰ༀྔ
    ैདྷͷݚڀσβΠϯͱಉ༷ͷରॲ͕ඞཁ
    w ݚڀର৅ऀͷϦΫϧʔτͷෛ୲͕ݮΔ
    w ରর܈͕ۃ୺ʹগͳ͍৔߹ʹ΋దԠͰ͖Δ
    ٶ஍ઌੜͷεϥΠυʢIUUQTXXXTMJEFTIBSFOFU)JEFBLJ.JZBDIJTTʣ

    View Slide

  24. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷछྨ
    24
    മ࿐ʹண໨͢Δ͔ʁ Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃੜʹண໨͢Δ͔ʁ
    ࣌ؒ
    മ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    മ࿐͔ͯ͠Βɺ͍ͭΞ΢τΧϜ͕ൃੜ͔ͨ͠ʁ Ξ΢τΧϜൃੜͷલɺ͍ͭമ࿐͔ͨ͠ʁ
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯ έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    $BTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO
    4FMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTEFTJHO

    View Slide

  25. ༻ޠͷఆٛɿമ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    25
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜΛҾ͖ى͜͢͜ͱ͕

    ੜ෺ֶతʹ΋ͬͱ΋Β͍͠ظؒ
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    'PDBMXJOEPXT 3FGFSFOUXJOEPXT
    3JTLQFSJPE $POUSPM#BTFMJOFQFSJPE
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃੜʹ

    Өڹ͠ͳ͍ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔظؒ
    w മ࿐Λى఺ʢ*OEFYʣʹয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒΛઃఆ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜͷ༗ແΛয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒͰൺֱ͢Δ

    View Slide

  26. ༻ޠͷఆٛɿΞ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    26
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜΛҾ͖ى͜͢͜ͱ͕

    ੜ෺ֶతʹ΋ͬͱ΋Β͍͠ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ য఺ظؒ
    'PDBMXJOEPXT 3FGFSFOUXJOEPXT
    3JTLQFSJPE $POUSPM#BTFMJOFQFSJPE
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃੜʹ

    Өڹ͠ͳ͍ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔظؒ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜΛى఺ʢ*OEFYʣʹয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒΛઃఆ
    w മ࿐ͷ༗ແΛয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒͰൺֱ͢Δ

    View Slide

  27. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯΛద༻͢ΔͨΊͷ޷·͍͠৚݅
    27
    ᶃ Ξ΢τΧϜ͸ɺٸͳൃ঱
    ᶄ മ࿐͸ɺҰաੑ
    w அଓతͰ͋Γɺമ࿐ͷޮՌΛҡ࣋͢Δظ͕ؒ୹͍
    w ϫΫνϯͳΒ͹ɺޮՌ͸༗ޮੑͰ͸ͳ͘ɺ෭൓Ԡͱߟ͑Δ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ
    ൃ঱
    മ࿐
    മ࿐
    য఺ظؒ য఺ظؒ
    ࣌ؒ
    w )BTIFNJ/B[BSJ44 .BOTPVSOJB."$BTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMTUVEJFTDPODFQUT EFTJHO BOEBOBMZTJT+&QJEFNJPM#JPTUBU
    0DU
    r
    w (SFFOMBOE4$POGPVOEJOHBOEFYQPTVSFUSFOETJODBTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ.BZ
    r
    w -BTI5- 7BOEFS8FFMF5+ )BOFVTF4 3PUINBO,+.PEFSOFQJEFNJPMPHZ GPVSUIFEJUJPO8PMUFST,MVXFS

    View Slide

  28. Thomsen RW, Öztürk B, Pedersen L, Nicolaisen SK, Petersen I, Olsen J, et al.

    Hospital Records of Pain, Fatigue, or Circulatory Symptoms in Girls
    Exposed to Human Papillomavirus Vaccination: Cohort, Self-Controlled
    Case Series, and Population Time Trend Studies.

    Am J Epidemiol. 2020 Apr 2;189(4):277–85.
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯɿ۩ମྫ
    മ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ

    View Slide

  29. 29
    32 ώτύϐϩʔϚ΢Πϧεʢ)17ʣϫΫνϯ͸҆શ͔ʁ
    ର৅ूஂ
    w ݚڀର৅ظؒதʹࡀͷ஀ੜ೔Λܴ͑ͨঁࣇ ਓ
    w )17ϫΫνϯͱؔ࿈͢ΔՄೳੑͷ͋ΔΞ΢τΧϜʢ಄௧ɺ᷺ଵײͳͲʣΛཧ༝ʹҩྍػ
    ؔΛड਍ͨ͠ ਓ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ ಄௧ɺඇಛҟతͳ仏௧ɺ᷺ଵײ΍ർ࿑ɺස຺ɺ௿݂ѹ΍ࣦਆ
    മ࿐ʢΞϯΧʔʣ )17ϫΫνϯ઀छ
    য఺ظؒʢ'PDBMXJOEPXʣ )17ϫΫνϯ઀छޙ೥ؒ
    ࢀরظؒʢ3FGFSFOUXJOEPXʣ
    ࡀͷ஀ੜ೔͔Βࡀͷ஀ੜ೔ͷ಺ɺ࣍ͷظؒΛআ͍ͨظؒ
    w য఺ظؒ
    w ઀छ௚લ೔ؒΛআ֎ʢϫΫνϯ઀छ͸݈߁ͳ࣌ظʹ͍ͨ͘Ίʣ
    ϝϞ σϯϚʔΫͷφγϣφϧσʔλϕʔε
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯʢ5IPNTFOͷྫʣ
    য఺ظؒʢ೥ؒʣ ࢀরظؒ
    ࡀͷ஀ੜ೔
    ࡀͷ஀ੜ೔
    ࢀরظؒ
    )17ϫΫνϯ઀छ
    5IPNTFO38 ¹[UÛSL# 1FEFSTFO- /JDPMBJTFO4, 1FUFSTFO* 0MTFO+ FUBM

    )PTQJUBM3FDPSETPG1BJO 'BUJHVF PS$JSDVMBUPSZ4ZNQUPNTJO(JSMT&YQPTFEUP)VNBO1BQJMMPNBWJSVT7BDDJOBUJPO

    $PIPSU 4FMG$POUSPMMFE$BTF4FSJFT BOE1PQVMBUJPO5JNF5SFOE4UVEJFTɹ"N+&QJEFNJPM"QS
    r

    View Slide

  30. σʔλʢ5IPNTFOͷྫʣ
    30
    *%
    ؍࡯ظؒ։࢝࣌ͷ

    ೔ྸ
    য఺ظؒͷ

    ։࢝࣌ͷ೔ྸ
    য఺ظؒͷ

    ऴྃ࣌ͷ೔ྸ
    ಄௧਍அ࣌ͷ

    ೔ྸ
    ؍࡯ऴྃ೔ͷ

    ೔ྸ



    ࠷΋γϯϓϧͳԾ૝σʔλ
    ճؼ෼ੳ͕Ͱ͖Δܗ΁ม׵
    *% Πϕϯτʢ಄௧ʣ

    ͷ༗ແ
    Πϕϯτൃੜ೔ য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ։࢝೔
    য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ऴྃ೔
    ظؒ മ࿐ʢϫΫνϯ઀छʣͷ
    ༗ແ
    JOEJW-
    FWFOU
    FWFOUEBZ
    MPXFS
    VQQFS
    JOUFSWBM
    SJTL







    4$$4QBDLBHFGPSNBUEBUBؔ਺
    8IJUBLFS)+ 'BSSJOHUPO$1 4QJFTTFOT# .VTPOEB15VUPSJBMJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTUIFTFMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPE

    4UBU.FE.BZ
    r

    View Slide

  31. ৚݅෇͖ϙΞιϯճؼϞσϧͰൃੜ཰ൺΛਪఆ
    31
    *% Πϕϯτʢ಄௧ʣ

    ͷ༗ແ
    Πϕϯτൃੜ೔ য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ։࢝೔
    য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ऴྃ೔
    ظؒ മ࿐ʢϫΫνϯ઀छʣͷ
    ༗ແ
    JOEJW-
    FWFOU
    FWFOUEBZ
    MPXFS
    VQQFS
    JOUFSWBM
    SJTL







    8IJUBLFS)+ 'BSSJOHUPO$1 4QJFTTFOT# .VTPOEB15VUPSJBMJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTUIFTFMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPE

    4UBU.FE.BZ
    r

    View Slide

  32. ݁Ռͷهࡌʢ5IPNTFOͷྫʣ
    32
    5IFSFXBTOPTVCTUBOUJBMBTTPDJBUJPOCFUXFFO)17WBDDJOBUJPOBOE

    IFBEBDIF BNPOH HJSMTXJUIBSFDPSE*33 $*
    ʜ
    5IPNTFO38 ¹[UÛSL# 1FEFSTFO- /JDPMBJTFO4, 1FUFSTFO* 0MTFO+ FUBM

    )PTQJUBM3FDPSETPG1BJO 'BUJHVF PS$JSDVMBUPSZ4ZNQUPNTJO(JSMT&YQPTFEUP)VNBO1BQJMMPNBWJSVT7BDDJOBUJPO

    $PIPSU 4FMG$POUSPMMFE$BTF4FSJFT BOE1PQVMBUJPO5JNF5SFOE4UVEJFTɹ"N+&QJEFNJPM"QS
    r
    ෲ௧
    ಄௧
    ඇಛҟతͳ仏௧
    ௿݂ѹࣦਆ
    ස຺
    ᷺ଵײ΍ർ࿑
    ൃੜ཰ൺ

    View Slide

  33. ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯͷڧΈͱऑΈ
    33
    w܁Γฦ͠ൃੜ͢ΔΠϕϯτʹద͍ͯ͠Δ
    w ࣌ؒґଘڞมྔΛௐ੔Ͱ͖Δ
    ԞଜઌੜͷεϥΠυʢIUUQTXXXTMJEFTIBSFOFUPLVNVSBZBTVZVLJTTʣ
    ڧΈ
    ऑΈ w Πϕϯτൃੜ͕ɺͦͷޙͷമ࿐΍؍࡯ظؒʹӨڹͯ͠͸ͳΒͳ͍

    View Slide

  34. Maclure M.

    The case-crossover design: a method for studying transient
    effects on the risk of acute events.


    Am J Epidemiol. 1991 Jan 15;133(2):144–53.
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯɿ۩ମྫ
    Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ

    View Slide

  35. Ϟνϕʔγϣϯ
    35
    ৺ے伷࠹ʢ.*ʣͷൃ঱ʹӨڹ͢Δൃ঱௚લͷཁҼΛௐ΂͍ͨʂ
    ଟ͘ͷ.*͸ɺൃ঱લͷ਺͔࣌ؒΒ਺೔ͷ׆ಈ͕Ҿ͖ۚʹͳͬͯΔͩΖ͏ɻ
    έʔείϯτϩʔϧݚڀΛܭը͠Α͏ɻ
    Ͱ΋ɺίϯτϩʔϧ܈ͷ৘ใΛूΊΔͷେมͩΑͶʜɻ
    έʔείϯτϩʔϧݚڀͰ͸ɺ

    έʔεͱίϯτϩ—ϧͷݪूஂ͕ಉ͡ඞཁ͕͋Δ
    έʔεͱಉ͡ݪूஂ͸ʁ έʔεࣗ਎
    ݪूஂ
    έʔε
    ίϯτϩʔϧ
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    $BTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO

    View Slide

  36. 36
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    32 ίʔώʔͷઁऔ͸ɺ.*ൃ঱ͷҾ͖ۚʹͳΔ͔ʁ
    ର৅ूஂ .*ൃ঱ͨ͠ਓ
    Ξ΢τΧϜʢΞϯΧʔʣ ৺ے伷࠹ʢ.*.ZPDBSEJBM*OGBSDUJPOʣ
    മ࿐ ίʔώʔઁऔ
    য఺ظؒʢ'PDBMXJOEPXʣ .*ൃ঱௚લͷ࣌ؒ
    ࢀরظؒʢ3FGFSFOUXJOEPXʣ աڈ೥ؒʢ.*ൃ঱௚લͷ࣌ؒΛআ͘ʣ
    ղੳ୯Ґ ࣌ؒ
    ϝϞ ΠϯλϏϡʔௐࠪʢ.*ൃ঱ޙɺதԝ஋೔Ͱฉ͖औΓʣ
    য఺ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ࣌ؒ ʜ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    ؍࡯ظؒʢ೥ؒʣ
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ

    View Slide

  37. σʔλʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    37
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST EBZ
    NJOVUFT EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    .BDMVSF
    ͷදΛվม
    ೔ճҿΉ͔Β

    ೥ؒͰɺظ଴͞ΕΔয఺ظؒʢ࣌ؒʣ͸ճº೔࣌ؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔࢀরظؒʢ࣌ؒʣ͸೔º࣌ؒ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    ࣌ؒ

    View Slide

  38. σʔλͷΠϝʔδʢ*%ʣ
    38
    .*ൃ঱
    য఺ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ࣌ؒ ʜ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    ຖ೔ճҿΉਓ
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST EBZ
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF º

    View Slide

  39. σʔλͷΠϝʔδʢ*%ʣ
    39
    .*ൃ঱
    য఺ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ࣌ؒ ʜ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    ϲ݄ʹճҿΉਓ
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST NPOUI
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF º

    View Slide

  40. ݁Ռʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    40
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST EBZ
    NJOVUFT EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    33.)
    13,517
    7,355
    = 1.8
    য఺ظؒʹ
    മ࿐͕͋ͬͨέʔεͷ

    ظ଴ࢀরظؒͷ࿨
    ࢀরظؒʹ
    മ࿐͕͋ͬͨέʔεͷ

    ظ଴য఺ظؒͷ࿨
    .BOUFM)BFOT[FMਪఆྔ
    3BUFSBUJP
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    ίʔώʔઁऔ࣌ؒҎ಺ͷ.*ൃ঱཰ൺ

    View Slide

  41. .BOUFM)BFO[FMਪఆྔʢ3BUFSBUJPʣᶃ
    41
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ 5PUBM
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ "J "J
    1FSTPOUJNF 5J 5J 5J
    RRMH
    =
    ∑N
    i=1
    A1i
    T0i
    /T+i
    ∑N
    i=1
    A0i
    T1i
    /T+i
    αϯϓϧαΠζ/
    Ұͭͷ૚͸ɺҰਓͷݸମͰ׬݁
    .BOUFM)BFOT[FMਪఆྔ
    ҰਓͻͱΓͷݸମΛ૚ͱߟ͑ͯɺ৘ใΛ଍͠ࠐΜͰ͍͘
    ݸମ಺ͰɺϚονϯά͍ͯ͠ΔΠϝʔδ

    View Slide

  42. .BOUFM)BFO[FMਪఆྔʢ3BUFSBUJPʣᶄ
    42
    *% য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF
    *% য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ 5PUBM
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ "J "J
    1FSTPOUJNF 5J 5J 5J
    RRMH
    =
    ∑N
    i=1
    A1i
    T0i
    /T+i
    ∑N
    i=1
    A0i
    T1i
    /T+i
    RRMH
    =
    1 ⋅ 5116/8776 + 0 ⋅ 8730/8776
    0 ⋅ 3650/8776 + 1 ⋅ 36/8776
    *% *%
    = 142

    View Slide

  43. ݁Ռͷهࡌʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    43
    33.)
    13,517
    7,360
    = 1.8
    'PSUIFPOFIPVSQFSJPEBGUFSESJOLJOHDP
    ff
    FF

    UIFSBUFSBUJPJT QFSDFOU$*

    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r

    View Slide

  44. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯͷԾఆ
    44
    ᶃമ࿐ͷ෼෍͕ɺݚڀظؒத͸Ұఆ
    ຖ೔ճҿΉਓ
    ϲ݄ʹճҿΉਓ
    ᶃ`മ࿐֬཰͕ɺΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱ʹରͯ͠ɺ৚݅෇͖ಠཱ
    ˠଌఆ͞Εͨɺ࣌ؒมಈͷަབྷҼࢠ͸ௐ੔͠ͳ͚Ε͹ͳΒͳ͍
    w .JUUMFNBO." .PTUPGTLZ&&YDIBOHFBCJMJUZJOUIFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO*OU+&QJEFNJPM0DU
    r
    w (SFFOMBOE4$POGPVOEJOHBOEFYQPTVSFUSFOETJODBTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ.BZ
    r
    w .PTUPGTLZ& $PVMM#" .JUUMFNBO.""OBMZTJTPG0CTFSWBUJPOBM4FMGNBUDIFE%BUBUP&YBNJOF"DVUF5SJHHFSTPG0VUDPNF&WFOUTXJUI
    "CSVQU0OTFU&QJEFNJPMPHZ/PW
    r
    w -BTI5- 7BOEFS8FFMF5+ )BOFVTF4 3PUINBO,+.PEFSOFQJEFNJPMPHZ GPVSUIFEJUJPO8PMUFST,MVXFS
    ˠ৚݅෇͖ϩδεςΟοΫճؼϞσϧ͕ඞཁ

    View Slide

  45. Wang SV, Schneeweiss S, Maclure M, Gagne JJ.

    “First-wave” bias when conducting active safety monitoring of
    newly marketed medications

    with outcome-indexed self-controlled designs.

    Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Sep 15;180(6):636–44.
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯɿ۩ମྫ
    Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ

    View Slide

  46. 46
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    32 ৽نൢച͞ΕͨΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ

    ʢ߅ਫ਼ਆපༀʣͷ෰༻͸ɺ

    .*ൃ঱ͷҾ͖ۚʹͳΔ͔ʁ
    ɹࢢൢޙͷ෭࡞༻ௐࠪ
    ର৅ूஂ
    w .*ൃ঱ͨ͠ਓ
    w .*ൃ঱ͷϦεΫ͸͋Δະൃ঱ऀ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ
    ৺ے伷࠹

    ʢ.*.ZPDBSEJBM*OGBSDUJPOʣ
    മ࿐ ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ෰༻
    য఺ظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ࢀরظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલʙ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ղੳ୯Ґ ਓ
    ϝϞ
    OBUJPOBM.FEJDBJE"OBMZUJDF9USBDU
    อݥͷσʔλʢʙ೥ʣ
    σβΠϯʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣ




    ৽نൃച

    ʢʣ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ʜ
    ʜ
    ܧଓతͳϞχλϦϯά
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r

    View Slide

  47. 47
    ɹ݁Ռʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣᶃ
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯͰղੳ
    ࢢൢޙ͙͢͸03ߴͯ͘ɺ

    ࣌ؒܦͭͱ௿͘ͳΔʁ

    View Slide

  48. ༀࡎӸֶͰى͜Γ΍͍͢όΠΞε
    48
    ৽نༀࡎ͸ɺമ࿐֬཰͕ҰఆͰ͸ͳ͍
    ࣌ؒ
    ༀࡎͷྲྀ௨ྔ

    ఆৗঢ়ଶ
    ༀࡎͷྲྀ௨ྔ͕ఆৗঢ়ଶʹࢸΔ·Ͱ͸ɺ

    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ͔Β

    ಘͨਪఆ஋͸όΠΞε͞ΕΔ
    'JSTUXBWFCJBT
    ඇఆৗঢ়ଶ

    View Slide

  49. 49
    ूஂϨϕϧͷമ࿐܏޲͕มΘΔͱ͖ɺͲ͏͢Δ͔ʁ
    έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ
    $BTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHO
    ඇఆৗঢ়ଶ

    View Slide

  50. έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ
    $BTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHO $5$

    View Slide

  51. 51
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    32 ৽نൢച͞ΕͨΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ

    ʢ߅ਫ਼ਆපༀʣͷ෰༻͸ɺ

    .*ൃ঱ͷҾ͖ۚʹͳΔ͔ʁ
    ɹࢢൢޙͷ෭࡞༻ௐࠪ
    ର৅ूஂ
    w .*ൃ঱ͨ͠ਓ
    w .*ൃ঱ͷϦεΫ͸͋Δະൃ঱ऀ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ
    ৺ے伷࠹

    ʢ.*.ZPDBSEJBM*OGBSDUJPOʣ
    മ࿐ ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ෰༻
    য఺ظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ࢀরظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલʙ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ղੳ୯Ґ ਓ
    ϝϞ
    OBUJPOBM.FEJDBJE"OBMZUJDF9USBDU
    อݥͷσʔλʢʙ೥ʣ
    σβΠϯʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣ




    ৽نൃച

    ʢʣ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ʜ
    ʜ
    ܧଓతͳϞχλϦϯά
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r

    View Slide

  52. 52
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯʢ8BOH47ͷྫʣ




    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    έʔε




    ίϯτϩʔϧ
    ONBUDI
    w ೥ྸɺੑผͰέʔεͱϚονϯά
    w Ϛονϯάର৅ͷέʔεͷΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱೔ʢج४೔ʣʹ.*ͷϦεΫ͕͋Δ
    w ج४೔͔Β೔Ҏ্લ͔ΒҩྍอݥʹՃೖ͍ͯ͠Δ
    w য఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒ͸ɺϚονϯάͨ͠έʔεͱἧ͑Δ
    ORCCO(cases)
    ORCCO(controls)
    മ࿐ޙͷ

    Ξ΢τΧϜൃ঱ͷΦοζൺ
    ࢀরظؒʹର͢Δ

    য఺ظؒͷമ࿐Φοζൺ
    മ࿐֬཰্͕͕Δ
    മ࿐֬཰͕Լ͕Δ
    ௐ੔
    ORCCO(cases)
    ORCCO(controlss)
    ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ
    ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ
    ج४೔

    View Slide

  53. 53
    ɹ݁Ռʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣᶄ
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    ࣌ؒΛ௨ͯ͠OVMM

    View Slide

  54. Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔσβΠϯͷ·ͱΊ
    54
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔ έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧ
    ࢖༻͢Δ৘ใ έʔεʢΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱ྫͷΈʣ
    w έʔεʢΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱ྫʣ
    w ίϯτϩʔϧ

    ʢΞ΢τΧϜඇൃ঱ྫʣ
    ղੳํ๏
    w .BOUFM)BFOT[FMਪఆ
    w ৚݅෇͖ϙΞιϯճؼ
    w ৚݅෇͖ϩδεςΟοΫճؼ
    w Ϛονϯά
    w ৚݅෇͖ϩδεςΟοΫճؼ
    Ծఆ
    w മ࿐܏޲͕Ұఆ
    w മ࿐ͱΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱͕৚݅෇͖ಠཱ
    w έʔεͱ

    ίϯτϩʔϧͷമ࿐܏޲͕ಉ͡
    w മ࿐ͱΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱͕৚݅෇͖ಠཱ
    ௕ॴ Ξ΢τΧϜൃ঱ྫͷ৘ใͷΈͰྑ͍ മ࿐܏޲Λௐ੔Ͱ͖Δ
    ୹ॴ മ࿐܏޲͕ఆৗঢ়ଶͰͳ͚Ε͹ͳΒͳ͍ ద੾ͳίϯτϩʔϧͷ৘ใ͕ඞཁ

    View Slide

  55. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯɿ
    σʔλͷܗͱ3Λ࢖ͬͨ౷ܭղੳ

    View Slide

  56. ࢝఺ͱͳΔղੳ༻σʔλʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    56
    *% .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓ ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕

    য఺ظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕
    ࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ݚڀظؒ
    JE
    [email protected]@UJNF
    [email protected]
    [email protected]@VOJU
    [email protected]
    [email protected]
    [email protected]
    [email protected]
    5

    IPVST EBZ E
    NJOVUFT EBZ E
    IPVST NPOUI N
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST NPOUI N
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    ೖྗ ೖྗ ೖྗ ܭࢉ ೖྗ

    View Slide

  57. ऴ఺ͱͳΔղੳ༻σʔλʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    57
    *% য఺ظؒ
    PSࢀরظؒ
    Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃ঱
    JE
    FYQPTVSF
    DBTF





















    ᶃ*%͝ͱͷFYQPTVSF
    ͕ରԠ͢Δظؒͷ਺͚ͩߦ͕͋Δ
    ߦ
    ߦ
    ߦ
    ߦ
    ᶄDBTFʹ͸ɺ·ͣ͢΂ͯΛೖΕΔ
    ᶅ֤JEɺ֤FYQPTVSFͷߦ໨ͷΈ

    ֤ظؒͷമ࿐ͷ༗ແʹରԠ͢ΔΑ͏ʹDBTFʹΛೖΕΔ
    Ξ΢τΧϜൃ঱͸ɺJE͝ͱʹճͷΈ͔ͩΒ
    ߦ
    ߦ

    View Slide

  58. ղੳ༻σʔλ࡞੒ίʔυᶃ
    58

    ४උ

    σʔλೖྗ

    View Slide

  59. ղੳ༻σʔλ࡞੒ίʔυᶄ
    59

    ੨͍෦෼ͷܭࢉ

    View Slide

  60. ౷ܭղੳίʔυ
    60

    View Slide

  61. ղੳ༻σʔλ࡞੒ίʔυᶅ
    61

    ऴ఺σʔληοτΛ࡞੒
    ᶃ*%͝ͱͷFYQPTVSF
    ͕ରԠ͢Δظؒͷ਺͚ͩߦ͕͋Δ
    ᶄDBTFʹ͸ɺ·ͣ͢΂ͯΛೖΕΔ
    ᶅ֤JEɺ֤FYQPTVSFͷߦ໨ͷΈ

    ֤ظؒͷമ࿐ͷ༗ແʹରԠ͢ΔΑ͏ʹDBTFʹΛೖΕΔ

    View Slide

  62. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷ·ͱΊ

    View Slide

  63. മ࿐ΞϯΧʔσβΠϯͱΞ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔσβΠϯͷ࢖͍෼͚ʢࢲݟʣ
    63
    മ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    മ࿐͔ͯ͠Βɺ͍ͭΞ΢τΧϜ͕ൃੜ͔ͨ͠ʁ Ξ΢τΧϜൃੜͷલɺ͍ͭമ࿐͔ͨ͠ʁ
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯ έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋Δമ࿐͸Ұͭ
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΞ΢τΧϜͷछྨ͸ෳ਺
    w ʢྫɿϫΫνϯ઀छͱ͞·͟·ͳ෭൓Ԡʣ
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋Δമ࿐ͷछྨ͸ෳ਺
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΞ΢τΧϜ͸Ұͭ
    w ʢྫɿ৺ے伷࠹ͱ͞·͟·ͳമ࿐ʣ
    w ಛఆͷΞ΢τΧϜൃੜ঱ྫΛूΊͨ

    σʔλϕʔεʢ࣬ױϨδετϦʣͱ૬ੑ͕ྑ͍
    w ํ๏࿦ͷݚڀ͕ਐΜͰΔ w ํ๏࿦ͷݚڀ͕ਐΜͰͳ͍

    View Slide

  64. ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪ
    64
    w $BEBSFUUF4. .BDMVSF. %FMBOFZ+"$ 8IJUBLFS)+ )BZFT,/ 8BOH47 FUBM$POUSPMZPVSTFMG*41&FOEPSTFE
    HVJEBODFJOUIFBQQMJDBUJPOPGTFMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHOTJOQIBSNBDPFQJEFNJPMPHZ1IBSNBDPFQJEFNJPM%SVH4BG
    +VO
    rɹʲༀࡎӸֶͷཱ৔͔Βͷ·ͱΊʳ
    w 8IJUBLFS)+ 'BSSJOHUPO$1 4QJFTTFOT# .VTPOEB15VUPSJBMJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTUIFTFMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPE
    4UBU.FE.BZ
    rɹʲίʔυ෇͖νϡʔτϦΞϧʳ
    w )BMMBT+ 8IJUBLFS) %FMBOFZ+" $BEBSFUUF4. 1SBUU/ .BDMVSF.5IF6TFPG"DUJWF$PNQBSBUPSTJO4FMG$POUSPMMFE
    %FTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM0DU
    r777ɹʲ৽͍͠ϨϏϡʔʳ
    w 1FUFSTFO* %PVHMBT* 8IJUBLFS)4FMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPETBOBMUFSOBUJWFUPTUBOEBSEFQJEFNJPMPHJDBM
    TUVEZEFTJHOT#.+4FQJɹʲ୹͍ϨϏϡʔʳ
    w 'BSSJOHUPO1 8IJUBLFS) 8FMEFTFMBTTJF:(4FMG$POUSPMMFE$BTF4FSJFT4UVEJFT".PEFMMJOH(VJEFXJUI3$3$1SFTT
    QɹʲԞଜઌੜͷ͓͢͢Ίʳ

    View Slide

  65. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪᶃ
    65

    ֓؍Λ͔ͭΉ
    w $BEBSFUUF4. .BDMVSF. %FMBOFZ+"$ 8IJUBLFS)+ )BZFT,/ 8BOH47 FUBM$POUSPMZPVSTFMG*41&FOEPSTFE
    HVJEBODFJOUIFBQQMJDBUJPOPGTFMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHOTJOQIBSNBDPFQJEFNJPMPHZ1IBSNBDPFQJEFNJPM%SVH4BG
    +VO
    rɹʲༀࡎӸֶͷཱ৔͔Βͷ·ͱΊʳ
    w $BSSBDFEP.BSUÍOF[& 5BSBDJEP. 5PCJBT" 4BF[. 'JHVFJSBT"$BTFDSPTTPWFSBOBMZTJTPGBJSQPMMVUJPOIFBMUI
    F
    ff
    FDUTBTZTUFNBUJDSFWJFXPGNFUIPEPMPHZBOEBQQMJDBUJPO&OWJSPO)FBMUI1FSTQFDU"VH

    ʲͲ͏ͳྖҬͰ࢖ΘΕ͍ͯΔ͔ɺͳΜͱͳ͘௫Ήʳ
    w )BTIFNJ/B[BSJ44 .BOTPVSOJB."$BTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMTUVEJFTDPODFQUT EFTJHO BOEBOBMZTJT+
    &QJEFNJPM#JPTUBU0DU
    rɹʲํ๏࿦ͷ·ͱΊͱͯ͠Θ͔Γ΍͘͢ஸೡɻ؆୯͕ͩ਺ࣜ΋σʔλͷܗ΋ࡌͬ
    ͍ͯΔɻͨͩ͜͠ͷ··Ͱ͸ղੳͰ͖ͳ͍ʳ
    w .PTUPGTLZ& $PVMM#" .JUUMFNBO.""OBMZTJTPG0CTFSWBUJPOBM4FMGNBUDIFE%BUBUP&YBNJOF"DVUF5SJHHFSTPG
    0VUDPNF&WFOUTXJUI"CSVQU0OTFU&QJEFNJPMPHZ/PW
    rɹʲෳ਺ͷσβΠϯͷํ๏࿦ϨϏϡʔͱͯ͠͸
    ࠷΋ৄ͍͠ɻ͔͠͠೉͍͠ɻ֤࿦Λษڧ͠ͳ͕ΒɺԿ౓΋ৼΓฦΔ΂͠ʳ

    View Slide

  66. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪᶄ
    66

    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    w ˒4IJPTBLBJ, ,BHJNVSB5$BTF$SPTTPWFS4UVEZ+BQBOFTF+PVSOBMPG1IBSNBDPFQJEFNJPMPHZ:BLV[BJFLJHBLV

    rɹʲ೔ຊޠจݙʳ
    w ˒.BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT"N+
    &QJEFNJPM+BO
    rɹʲΞ΢τΧϜ͕ΞϯΧʔͷࣗݾରরσβΠϯͷىݯͱͳΔ࿦จɻදͷ਺஋ʹͱ͜ΖͲ
    ͜Ζϛε͕͋ΔͷͰ஫ҙʳ
    w .JUUMFNBO." -FXJT3" .BDMVSF. 4IFSXPPE+# .VMMFS+&5SJHHFSJOHNZPDBSEJBMJOGBSDUJPOCZNBSJKVBOB
    $JSDVMBUJPO+VO
    rɹʲέʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛ࢖ͬͨݚڀͷ۩ମྫɻΘ͔Γ΍͍͢ʳ
    w .JUUMFNBO." .PTUPGTLZ&&YDIBOHFBCJMJUZJOUIFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO*OU+&QJEFNJPM0DU

    ʲόΠΞεͷߏ଄Λཧղ͢Δɻ%"(Λ͍ࣔͯ͠ΔͷͰཧղ͠΍͍͢ʳ
    w ;IBOH;$BTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBOEJUTJNQMFNFOUBUJPOJO3"OO5SBOTM.FE4FQ
    ɹʲ3Λ࢖ͬͨղੳ
    νϡʔτϦΞϧ࿦จɻίʔυ͸ݹ͘ɺ෼͔ΓͮΒ͍ɻ͜ͷࢿྉͷίʔυݟͯʳ

    View Slide

  67. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪᶅ
    67

    έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ
    w ˒8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++l'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZ
    NBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOTXJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ

    ʲέʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔͷऑΈΛཧղ্ͨ͠ͰɺέʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯͷϞνϕʔγϣϯ͕෼͔Δ۩ମྫɻʳ
    w 4VJTTB45IFDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHO&QJEFNJPMPHZ.BZ
    rɹʲέʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯͷى
    ݯͱͳΔ࿦จʳ
    w (SFFOMBOE4$POGPVOEJOHBOEFYQPTVSFUSFOETJODBTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ
    .BZ
    rɹʲ(SFFMBOE͔ΒέʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ͕͏·͍͔͘ͳ͍ྫͷఏࣔʳ
    w 4VJTTB45IFDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOGVSUIFSBTTVNQUJPOTBOEDPOEJUJPOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ+VM

    ʲ(SFFOMBOEͷ࿦จʹର͢Δ4VJTTBͷ੾Γฦ͠࿦จʳ

    View Slide