対照群がない研究デザインで効果を推定する（時系列分断デザイン・自己対照研究デザイン）

Transcript

1. ରর܈͕ͳ͍ݚڀσβΠϯͰޮՌΛਪఆ͢Δ
   ʢ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯɾࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯʣ
   ࠤ౻ढ़ଠ࿕
   ௕࡚େֶපӃྟচݚڀηϯλʔ
   TIVOUBSPTBUP!OBHBTBLJVBDKQ
   

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2. 2
   0WFSWJFX
   ूஂʹରͯ͠հೖΛ͓͜ͳͬͨͨΊɺ
   

   հೖΛड͚͍ͯͳ͍ର৅ऀ͕͍ͳ͍
   ͋Δूஂͷ͏ͪɺ
   

   ΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷσʔλ͔͠ͳ͍
   ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
   ରর܈ͷσʔλ͕ͳ͍ʂ
   

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3. ӸֶݚڀͷσβΠϯ
   

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4. ҩֶݚڀͷ෼ྨ
   4
   %FTDSJQUJPO
   &YQMPSJOH
   BTTPDJBUJPOT
   1SFEJDUJPO $BVTBMJOGFSFODF
   %JBHOPTUJD
   QFSGPSNBODF
   FWBMVBUJPO
   هड़ ؔ࿈ͷ୳ࡧ ༧ଌ ҼՌਪ࿦ ਍அͷੑೳධՁ
   ม਺͸ͲΜͳ෼෍͔ʁ
   Ͳͷม਺͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ
   ؔ࿈͢Δ͔ʁ
   Ξ΢τΧϜΛ༧ଌ͢Δ
   ॲஔ͕Ξ΢τΧϜʹ
   

   Өڹ͢Δ͔ʁ
   ೚ҙͷධՁํ๏ͷ
   

   ਍அੑೳ͸ʁ
   w )FSOÂO." )TV+ )FBMZ#"4FDPOE$IBODFUP(FU$BVTBM*OGFSFODF3JHIU"$MBTTJ
   fi
   DBUJPOPG%BUB4DJFODF5BTLT$IBODF+BO
   
   r
   w 7JUUJOHIP
   ff
   & (MJEEFO%7 4IJCPTLJ4$ .D$VMMPDI$&3FHSFTTJPONFUIPETJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTMJOFBS MPHJTUJD TVSWJWBM BOESFQFBUFENFBTVSFT
   NPEFMT4QSJOHFS4DJFODF#VTJOFTT.FEJB
   

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5. ҼՌਪ࿦
   5
   " :
   
   w ॲஔ"͸ɺΞ΢τΧϜ:ʹӨڹ͢Δ͔ʁ
   w Ξ΢τΧϜ:ʹର͢Δॲஔ"ͷޮՌ͸ʁ
   ݪҼ
   ॲஔʢ5SFBUNFOUʣ
   հೖʢ*OUFSWFOUJPOʣ
   മ࿐ʢ&YQPTVSFʣ
   ݁Ռ
   Ξ΢τΧϜʢ0VUDPNFʣ
   

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6. ӸֶݚڀσβΠϯͷ෼ྨ
   6
   ରর܈͕͋ΔσβΠϯ ରর܈͕ͳ͍σβΠϯ
   ఻౷తͳσβΠϯ
   w ϥϯμϜԽൺֱࢼݧ
   w ԣஅݚڀ
   w ίϗʔτݚڀ
   w ঱ྫରরݚڀ
   w 1SF1PTUσβΠϯ
   ൃలతͳσβΠϯ
   w ࠩ෼ͷࠩσβΠϯ
   

   %J
   ff
   FSFODFJO%J
   ff
   FSFODF %J%
   
   w ճؼ෼அσβΠϯ
   w ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ
   w ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
   

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7. ͳͥରর܈͕ඞཁ͔ʁ
   7
   WT WT
   1PQVMBUJPO
   ॲஔ͋Γ
   "
   ॲஔͳ͠
   "
   E[Ya=1] E[Ya=0] E[Y|A = 1] E[Y|A = 0]
   $BVTBMF
   ff
   FDU
   ҼՌޮՌ
   "TTPDJBUJPO
   ؔ࿈
   )FSOÂO." 3PCJOT+.
   $BVTBM*OGFSFODF8IBU*G#PDB3BUPO$IBQNBO)BMM$3$'JHVSFΛվม
   ͜͜ΛධՁ͢ΔͨΊʹ
   

   ରর܈͕ඞཁ
   

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8. ͳͥରর܈͕ͳ͍ͷ͔ʁᶃ
   8
   ࣌ؒ
   ېԎ৚ྫ
   ٸੑףಈ຺
   

   ൃ঱਺
   ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ
   
   
   
   
   ࠃຽʹର͢Δ੓ࡦ΍ྙཧతͳ໰୊ʹΑΓɺ
   ूஂશһʹରͯ͠հೖΛ͓͜ͳͬͨͨΊɺհೖΛड͚͍ͯͳ͍ର৅ΛઃఆͰ͖ͳ͍
   ͋Δूஂͷ͏ͪɼؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷ਺
   ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔհೖɿېԎ৚ྫ
   ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΠϕϯτɿٸੑףಈ຺ൃ঱
   

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9. ͳͥରর܈͕ͳ͍ͷ͔ʁᶄ
   9
   ΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷσʔλ͔͠ͳ͍
   w ϫΫνϯ઀छঢ়گ
   w എܠ৘ใ
   ϫΫνϯ઀छऀ
   
   
   
   
   ϫΫνϯ઀छ։࢝
   ෭൓Ԡ
   ෭൓Ԡ
   ෭൓Ԡ
   ࣌ؒ
   σʔλ͋Γ
   σʔλ͋Γ
   σʔλ͋Γ
   σʔλͳ͠
   σʔλͳ͠
   σʔλͳ͠
   σʔλͳ͠
   σʔλͳ͠
   ෭൓ԠͱͳΓ͑Δ
   

   Πϕϯτൃ঱ऀ
   /%#
   

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10. ूஂϨϕϧɾݸମϨϕϧ
    10
    ूஂʹରͯ͠հೖΛ͓͜ͳͬͨͨΊɺ
    

    հೖΛड͚͍ͯͳ͍ର৅ऀ͕͍ͳ͍
    ͋Δूஂͷ͏ͪɺ
    

    ΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷσʔλ͔͠ͳ͍
    ूஂϨϕϧͷ৘ใ
    ʢ͋Δ࣌ؒ୯ҐͰूܭ͞ΕΔͨΊɺ
    

    ݸମϨϕϧͷ৘ใ͕ෆ໌ʣ
    ݸମϨϕϧͷ৘ใ
    ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ
    

    ʢ෼அ࣌ܥྻσβΠϯʣ
    *OUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTEFTJHO
    

    *54
    
    ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
    4FMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHO
    

    4$$4
    
    

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11. ࣌ܥྻ෼அσβΠϯ
    *OUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTEFTJHO *54
    
    

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12. *54͸ԿΛධՁ͢Δ͔ʁ
    12
    ूஂʹର͢Δհೖ
    -FWFMDIBOHFհೖʹΑΔٸܹͳมԽ
    հೖલͷτϨϯυʢ܏͖ʣ
    հೖޙͷ
    

    τϨϯυʢ܏͖ʣ
    4MPQFDIBOHFհೖʹΑΔτϨϯυͷมԽ
    ूஂʹର͢ΔհೖͷޮՌΛධՁ͢Δ
    

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13. *54ʹదͨ͠σʔλ͸ʁ
    13
    ूஂʹର͢Δհೖ
    ౳ִؒͳ࣌఺Ͱଌఆ͞Εͨσʔλ
    հೖ։࢝࣌఺͕ΫϦΞ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜม਺ͷई౓͸ɺҰൠԽઢܗϞσϧͰѻ͑Δई౓ͳΒ0,
    w قઅͷΑ͏ͳपظੑΛߟྀ͢ΔͨΊͷ࣌఺਺Ҏ্͕ਪ঑
    

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14. ંΕઢճؼϞσϧɿ*54Ͱར༻͢Δ౷ܭղੳख๏
    14
    ંΕઢճؼϞσϧ
    4FHNFOUFESFHSFTTJPONPEFM
    w հೖʹΑΔٸܹͳมԽ
    w հೖʹΑΔτϨϯυͷมԽ
    Yt
    = β0
    + β1
    T + β2
    Xt
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )Xt
    %BUF 5 9U 5J 55J
    9 :
    
    
    
    ʜ
    
    
    
    
    ʜ
    
    w 5ݚڀ։࢝࣌఺͔Βܦաͨ࣌ؒ͠
    w 9UհೖલޙΛද͢ࢦࣔม਺
    

    ʢհೖલɺհೖޙʣ
    w 5Jհೖ͕࢝·ͬͨ࣌఺
    ˞͜ͷϞσϧ͸ɺ࿦จʹΑͬͯؒҧ͍͕͋ΔͷͰ஫ҙ
    

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15. ંΕઢճؼϞσϧʹ͓͚Δύϥϝʔλͷղऍᶃ
    15
    ંΕઢճؼϞσϧ
    Yt
    = β0
    + β1
    T + β2
    Xt
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )Xt
    #BTFMJOFMFWFM
    E[Yt
    |T = 0, Xt
    = 0] = β0
    1SFTMPQF
    E[Yt+1
    − Yt
    |T ≤ Ti
    , Xt
    = 0] = E[Yt+1
    |T ≤ Ti
    , Xt
    = 0] − E[Yt
    |T ≤ Ti
    , Xt
    = 0]
    = {β0
    + β1
    (T + 1)} − {β0
    + β1
    T}
    = β1
    1PTUTMPQF
    E[Yt+1
    − Yt
    |T > Ti
    , Xt
    = 1] = {β0
    + β1
    (T + 1) + β2
    + β3
    (T + 1 − Ti
    )} − {β0
    + β1
    (T) + β2
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )}
    = β1
    + β3
    5
    հೖ
    :
    
    5
    
    
    9U
    5J
    55J
    9U
    β0
    β1
    β1
    + β3
    

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16. ંΕઢճؼϞσϧʹ͓͚Δύϥϝʔλͷղऍᶄ
    16
    ંΕઢճؼϞσϧ
    Yt
    = β0
    + β1
    T + β2
    Xt
    + β3
    (T − Ti
    )Xt
    5
    հೖ
    :
    
    5
    
    
    9U
    5J
    55J
    9U
    4MPQFDIBOHF
    1PTUTMPQF − 1SFTMPQF = β1
    + β3
    − β1
    = β3
    -FWFMDIBOHF
    E[Yt
    |T = Ti
    , Xt
    = 1] − E[Yt
    |T = Ti
    , Xt
    = 0] = {β0
    + β1
    Ti
    + β2
    + β3
    (Ti
    − Ti
    )} − {β0
    + β1
    Ti
    }
    = β2
    β0
    β1
    β1
    + β3
    τϨϯυͷมԽ
    β3
    ϨϕϧͷมԽ
    β2
    

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17. *54σβΠϯͷ௕ॴ
    17
    ूஂʹର͢ΔհೖͷޮՌΛධՁͰ͖Δ
    ूஂϨϕϧͰมԽ͠ͳ͍ɾ؇΍͔ͳަབྷΛແࢹͰ͖Δ
    w հೖલޙͷτϨϯυ
    w հೖʹΑΔٸܹͳมԽ
    w հೖʹΑΔτϨϯυͷมԽ
    w ͜ΕΒΛਤࣔͰ͖Δ
    w ूஂ಺ͷ೥ྸͷ෼෍΍ܦࡁঢ়گͷ෼෍౳͸ɺಉ͡ूஂΛॎஅతʹ௥੻͢ΔͨΊແࢹͰ͖Δ
    

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18. *54σβΠϯͷ஫ҙ఺ᶃ
    18
    قઅੑͷ੍ޚ
    w ܦ࣌σʔλͰ͋ΔͨΊɺΞ΢τΧϜ͸قઅͷӨڹΛड͚͍ͯΔ͔΋͠Εͳ͍
    w ྫ͑͹ɺײછ঱ͷጶױऀ਺ΛධՁ͢Δ৔߹͸ɺقઅʹΑͬͯጶױऀ਺͸૿ݮ͢Δ
    w ϞσϧΛ޻෉͢Δ͜ͱͰ੍ޚ͢Δ
    w ݄ͷμϛʔσʔλΛೖΕΔ
    w ݄ʹରͯ͠ϑʔϦΤؔ਺΍εϓϥΠϯΛ͋ͯΔ
    ࣗݾ૬ؔͷ੍ޚ
    w ܦ࣌σʔλͰ͋ΔͨΊɺࣗݾ૬͕ؔ͋Δ͔΋͠Εͳ͍
    w ࣗݾ૬͕ؔ͋Δͱɺ4&ͷաখਪఆˠλΠϓ*Τϥʔ૿Ճ
    w #FSOBM
    ͸ɺʮقઅੑΛ੍ޚ͢Ε͹ɺࣗݾ૬ؔ΋੍ޚͰ͖ΔͩΖ͏ʯͱݴ͍ͬͯΔ͕ɺ
    

    ϞσϦϯάޙʹධՁ͢΂͖ʢFH%VSCJO8BUTPOUFTUʣ
    w "3*."Λ࢖͍ͬͯΔ࿦จ΋͋Δʢ·ͩΑ͘෼͔Βͳ͍ʣ
    

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19. *54σβΠϯͷ஫ҙ఺ᶄ
    19
    ࣌ؒґଘੑަབྷͷ੍ޚ
    w ݚڀظؒ಺ʹٸʹมԽ͢ΔΑ͏ͳม਺͸ϞσϧʹؚΊΔ΂͖
    w ͱ࿦จதͰΑ͘આ໌͕͋Δ͕ɺ
    

    ϨϕϧͷมԽΛޮՌࢦඪͱߟ͑ͯɺհೖͷ༗ແΛॲஔม਺ͱ͢Δͱɺॲஔม਺ʹӨڹΛ༩͑
    ͳ͚Ε͹ɺͦΕ͸ަབྷҼࢠͰ͸ͳ͍ͷͰ͸ʁ
    w ͨͩ͠ɺΞ΢τΧϜʹ͸Өڹ͢ΔͩΖ͏͔Βɺਪఆ஋ͷޮ཰ΛߴΊΔҙຯ͸͋Δ͸ͣ
    

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20. *54Λֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪ
    20
    w #FSOBM+- $VNNJOT4 (BTQBSSJOJ"*OUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTSFHSFTTJPOGPSUIFFWBMVBUJPOPGQVCMJDIFBMUI
    JOUFSWFOUJPOTBUVUPSJBM*OU+&QJEFNJPM'FC
    rɹʲ࠷΋Ҿ༻͞Ε͍ͯΔνϡʔτϦϧ࿦จɻϞσϧʹؒҧ
    ͍͕͋Δͷʹ஫ҙʳ
    w ,POUPQBOUFMJT& %PSBO5 4QSJOHBUF%" #VDIBO* 3FFWFT%3FHSFTTJPOCBTFERVBTJFYQFSJNFOUBMBQQSPBDIXIFO
    SBOEPNJTBUJPOJTOPUBOPQUJPOJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTBOBMZTJT#.++VOIɹʲ࣮ྫ΋ؚΊͯ୺తʹ·
    ͱΊͯ͋Δʳ
    w 9JBP) "VHVTUP0 8BHFOBBS#)3F
    fl
    FDUJPOPONPEFSONFUIPETBDPNNPOFSSPSJOUIFTFHNFOUFESFHSFTTJPO
    QBSBNFUFSJ[BUJPOPGJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTBOBMZTFT*OU+&QJEFNJPM+VM
    rʲਖ਼͍͠ϞσϦϯάΛղ
    આʳ
    w 8BHOFS", 4PVNFSBJ4# ;IBOH' 3PTT%FHOBO%4FHNFOUFESFHSFTTJPOBOBMZTJTPGJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTTUVEJFT
    JONFEJDBUJPOVTFSFTFBSDI+$MJO1IBSN5IFS"VH
    rɹʲগʑݹ͍͕ɺνϡʔτϦΞϧ࿦จͷ࣍ʹಡΉ
    ͷ͕ྑ͍ʳ
    w 5VSOFS4- ,BSBIBMJPT" 'PSCFT"# 5BMKBBSE. (SJNTIBX+. $IFOH"$ FUBM%FTJHODIBSBDUFSJTUJDTBOETUBUJTUJDBM
    NFUIPETVTFEJOJOUFSSVQUFEUJNFTFSJFTTUVEJFTFWBMVBUJOHQVCMJDIFBMUIJOUFSWFOUJPOTBSFWJFX+$MJO&QJEFNJPM
    +VOrɹʲ*54Λར༻͍ͯ͠ΔݚڀͷϨϏϡʔ࿦จʳ
    w )BCFS/" $MBSLF%FFMEFS& 4BMPNPO+" 'FMMFS" 4UVBSU&"$07*%1PMJDZ*NQBDU&WBMVBUJPO"HVJEFUPDPNNPO
    EFTJHOJTTVFT"N+&QJEFNJPM<*OUFSOFU>+VO"WBJMBCMFGSPNIUUQEYEPJPSHBKFLXBCɹʲ*54
    Λ$07*%ʹద༻͢Δ͍͞ͷ஫ҙ఺͕·ͱΊΒΕ͍ͯΔ࿦จʳ
    

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21. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
    4FMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHO 4$$4
    
    w ͜ͷσβΠϯ͸ɺʹ։࠵͞Εͨ3&26*3&ݚڀձͰൃද͞Εͨࢿྉ΍ٞ࿦Λࢀߟʹ͓ͯ͠Γ·͢ɻ
    w ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷ֓ཁ͸ɺٶ஍ल໌ઌੜʢઍ༿େֶʣͷεϥΠυΛࢀߟʢ࢖༻ͷྃঝऔಘࡁΈʣ
    w ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯͷ֓ཁ͸ɺ
    

    Ԟଜହ೭ઌੜʢҰൠࣾஂ๏ਓྟচӸֶݚڀਪਐػߏʣͷεϥΠυΛࢀߟʢ࢖༻ͷྃঝऔಘࡁΈʣ
    

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22. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯ
    22
    ϫΫνϯ઀छऀ
    
    
    
    
    ϫΫνϯ઀छ։࢝
    ෭൓Ԡ
    ෭൓Ԡ
    ෭൓Ԡ
    w ʢجຊతʹʣ
    

    Ξ΢τΧϜ͕ൃੜͨ͠ਓͷΈର৅ͱ͢Δ
    w ݚڀର৅ऀͱͳͬͨҰਓҰਓʹରͯ͠ɺ
    

    ͭҎ্ͷ࣌఺ΛݸਓͷதͰൺֱ͢Δ
    ࣌ؒ
    ݸମ಺Ͱൺֱޙɺ଍͠ࠐΜͰ
    

    ूஂͱͯ͠മ࿐ͱΞ΢τΧϜͷؔ࿈ΛධՁ͢Δ
    

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23. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷར఺
    23
    w ະଌఆɾະ஌ͷަབྷҼࢠͷҰ෦ΛݪཧతʹऔΓআ͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ
    w ݸମ಺Ͱൺֱ͢ΔͨΊ
    w ಛʹ%#ݚڀ͸ະଌఆͷަབྷҼࢠ͕ଟ͍ͨΊɺϝϦοτ͕େ͖͍
    ݸମ಺ͰมԽ͠ͳ͍Ҽࢠ ؍࡯ظؒͷؒʹݸମ಺ͰมԽ͠ͳ͍Ҽࢠ
    w ੑผ
    w Ҩ఻৘ใ
    w طԟ
    w ੜ׆श׳
    w ೥ྸʢ؍࡯ظؒʹΑΔʣ
    ࣌ؒʹґଘͯ͠มԽ͢ΔҼࢠ
    w ༀࡎͷ෰ༀྔ
    ैདྷͷݚڀσβΠϯͱಉ༷ͷରॲ͕ඞཁ
    w ݚڀର৅ऀͷϦΫϧʔτͷෛ୲͕ݮΔ
    w ରর܈͕ۃ୺ʹগͳ͍৔߹ʹ΋దԠͰ͖Δ
    ٶ஍ઌੜͷεϥΠυʢIUUQTXXXTMJEFTIBSFOFU)JEFBLJ.JZBDIJTTʣ
    

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24. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷछྨ
    24
    മ࿐ʹண໨͢Δ͔ʁ Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃੜʹண໨͢Δ͔ʁ
    ࣌ؒ
    മ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    മ࿐͔ͯ͠Βɺ͍ͭΞ΢τΧϜ͕ൃੜ͔ͨ͠ʁ Ξ΢τΧϜൃੜͷલɺ͍ͭമ࿐͔ͨ͠ʁ
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯ έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    $BTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO
    4FMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTEFTJHO
    

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25. ༻ޠͷఆٛɿമ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    25
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜΛҾ͖ى͜͢͜ͱ͕
    

    ੜ෺ֶతʹ΋ͬͱ΋Β͍͠ظؒ
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    'PDBMXJOEPXT 3FGFSFOUXJOEPXT
    3JTLQFSJPE $POUSPM#BTFMJOFQFSJPE
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃੜʹ
    

    Өڹ͠ͳ͍ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔظؒ
    w മ࿐Λى఺ʢ*OEFYʣʹয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒΛઃఆ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜͷ༗ແΛয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒͰൺֱ͢Δ
    

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26. ༻ޠͷఆٛɿΞ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    26
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜΛҾ͖ى͜͢͜ͱ͕
    

    ੜ෺ֶతʹ΋ͬͱ΋Β͍͠ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ য఺ظؒ
    'PDBMXJOEPXT 3FGFSFOUXJOEPXT
    3JTLQFSJPE $POUSPM#BTFMJOFQFSJPE
    മ࿐͕Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃੜʹ
    

    Өڹ͠ͳ͍ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔظؒ
    w Ξ΢τΧϜΛى఺ʢ*OEFYʣʹয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒΛઃఆ
    w മ࿐ͷ༗ແΛয఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒͰൺֱ͢Δ
    

    View Slide

27. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯΛద༻͢ΔͨΊͷ޷·͍͠৚݅
    27
    ᶃ Ξ΢τΧϜ͸ɺٸͳൃ঱
    ᶄ മ࿐͸ɺҰաੑ
    w அଓతͰ͋Γɺമ࿐ͷޮՌΛҡ࣋͢Δظ͕ؒ୹͍
    w ϫΫνϯͳΒ͹ɺޮՌ͸༗ޮੑͰ͸ͳ͘ɺ෭൓Ԡͱߟ͑Δ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ
    ൃ঱
    മ࿐
    മ࿐
    য఺ظؒ য఺ظؒ
    ࣌ؒ
    w )BTIFNJ/B[BSJ44 .BOTPVSOJB."$BTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMTUVEJFTDPODFQUT EFTJHO BOEBOBMZTJT+&QJEFNJPM#JPTUBU
    0DU
    r
    w (SFFOMBOE4$POGPVOEJOHBOEFYQPTVSFUSFOETJODBTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ.BZ
    r
    w -BTI5- 7BOEFS8FFMF5+ )BOFVTF4 3PUINBO,+.PEFSOFQJEFNJPMPHZ GPVSUIFEJUJPO8PMUFST,MVXFS
    

    View Slide

28. Thomsen RW, Öztürk B, Pedersen L, Nicolaisen SK, Petersen I, Olsen J, et al.
    

    Hospital Records of Pain, Fatigue, or Circulatory Symptoms in Girls
    Exposed to Human Papillomavirus Vaccination: Cohort, Self-Controlled
    Case Series, and Population Time Trend Studies.
    

    Am J Epidemiol. 2020 Apr 2;189(4):277–85.
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯɿ۩ମྫ
    മ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    

    View Slide

29. 29
    32 ώτύϐϩʔϚ΢Πϧεʢ)17ʣϫΫνϯ͸҆શ͔ʁ
    ର৅ूஂ
    w ݚڀର৅ظؒதʹࡀͷ஀ੜ೔Λܴ͑ͨঁࣇ ਓ
    w )17ϫΫνϯͱؔ࿈͢ΔՄೳੑͷ͋ΔΞ΢τΧϜʢ಄௧ɺ᷺ଵײͳͲʣΛཧ༝ʹҩྍػ
    ؔΛड਍ͨ͠ ਓ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ ಄௧ɺඇಛҟతͳ仏௧ɺ᷺ଵײ΍ർ࿑ɺස຺ɺ௿݂ѹ΍ࣦਆ
    മ࿐ʢΞϯΧʔʣ )17ϫΫνϯ઀छ
    য఺ظؒʢ'PDBMXJOEPXʣ )17ϫΫνϯ઀छޙ೥ؒ
    ࢀরظؒʢ3FGFSFOUXJOEPXʣ
    ࡀͷ஀ੜ೔͔Βࡀͷ஀ੜ೔ͷ಺ɺ࣍ͷظؒΛআ͍ͨظؒ
    w য఺ظؒ
    w ઀छ௚લ೔ؒΛআ֎ʢϫΫνϯ઀छ͸݈߁ͳ࣌ظʹ͍ͨ͘Ίʣ
    ϝϞ σϯϚʔΫͷφγϣφϧσʔλϕʔε
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯʢ5IPNTFOͷྫʣ
    য఺ظؒʢ೥ؒʣ ࢀরظؒ
    ࡀͷ஀ੜ೔
    ࡀͷ஀ੜ೔
    ࢀরظؒ
    )17ϫΫνϯ઀छ
    5IPNTFO38 ¹[UÛSL# 1FEFSTFO- /JDPMBJTFO4, 1FUFSTFO* 0MTFO+ FUBM
    

    )PTQJUBM3FDPSETPG1BJO 'BUJHVF PS$JSDVMBUPSZ4ZNQUPNTJO(JSMT&YQPTFEUP)VNBO1BQJMMPNBWJSVT7BDDJOBUJPO
    

    $PIPSU 4FMG$POUSPMMFE$BTF4FSJFT BOE1PQVMBUJPO5JNF5SFOE4UVEJFTɹ"N+&QJEFNJPM"QS
    r
    

    View Slide

30. σʔλʢ5IPNTFOͷྫʣ
    30
    *%
    ؍࡯ظؒ։࢝࣌ͷ
    

    ೔ྸ
    য఺ظؒͷ
    

    ։࢝࣌ͷ೔ྸ
    য఺ظؒͷ
    

    ऴྃ࣌ͷ೔ྸ
    ಄௧਍அ࣌ͷ
    

    ೔ྸ
    ؍࡯ऴྃ೔ͷ
    

    ೔ྸ
    
    
    
    ࠷΋γϯϓϧͳԾ૝σʔλ
    ճؼ෼ੳ͕Ͱ͖Δܗ΁ม׵
    *% Πϕϯτʢ಄௧ʣ
    

    ͷ༗ແ
    Πϕϯτൃੜ೔ য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ։࢝೔
    য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ऴྃ೔
    ظؒ മ࿐ʢϫΫνϯ઀छʣͷ
    ༗ແ
    JOEJW-
    FWFOU
    FWFOUEBZ
    MPXFS
    VQQFS
    JOUFSWBM
    SJTL
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    4$$4QBDLBHFGPSNBUEBUBؔ਺
    8IJUBLFS)+ 'BSSJOHUPO$1 4QJFTTFOT# .VTPOEB15VUPSJBMJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTUIFTFMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPE
    

    4UBU.FE.BZ
    r
    

    View Slide

31. ৚݅෇͖ϙΞιϯճؼϞσϧͰൃੜ཰ൺΛਪఆ
    31
    *% Πϕϯτʢ಄௧ʣ
    

    ͷ༗ແ
    Πϕϯτൃੜ೔ য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ։࢝೔
    য఺ࢀরظؒͷ
    ऴྃ೔
    ظؒ മ࿐ʢϫΫνϯ઀छʣͷ
    ༗ແ
    JOEJW-
    FWFOU
    FWFOUEBZ
    MPXFS
    VQQFS
    JOUFSWBM
    SJTL
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    8IJUBLFS)+ 'BSSJOHUPO$1 4QJFTTFOT# .VTPOEB15VUPSJBMJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTUIFTFMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPE
    

    4UBU.FE.BZ
    r
    

    View Slide

32. ݁Ռͷهࡌʢ5IPNTFOͷྫʣ
    32
    5IFSFXBTOPTVCTUBOUJBMBTTPDJBUJPOCFUXFFO)17WBDDJOBUJPOBOE
    

    IFBEBDIF BNPOH HJSMTXJUIBSFDPSE*33 $*
    ʜ
    5IPNTFO38 ¹[UÛSL# 1FEFSTFO- /JDPMBJTFO4, 1FUFSTFO* 0MTFO+ FUBM
    

    )PTQJUBM3FDPSETPG1BJO 'BUJHVF PS$JSDVMBUPSZ4ZNQUPNTJO(JSMT&YQPTFEUP)VNBO1BQJMMPNBWJSVT7BDDJOBUJPO
    

    $PIPSU 4FMG$POUSPMMFE$BTF4FSJFT BOE1PQVMBUJPO5JNF5SFOE4UVEJFTɹ"N+&QJEFNJPM"QS
    r
    ෲ௧
    ಄௧
    ඇಛҟతͳ仏௧
    ௿݂ѹࣦਆ
    ස຺
    ᷺ଵײ΍ർ࿑
    ൃੜ཰ൺ
    

    View Slide

33. ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯͷڧΈͱऑΈ
    33
    w܁Γฦ͠ൃੜ͢ΔΠϕϯτʹద͍ͯ͠Δ
    w ࣌ؒґଘڞมྔΛௐ੔Ͱ͖Δ
    ԞଜઌੜͷεϥΠυʢIUUQTXXXTMJEFTIBSFOFUPLVNVSBZBTVZVLJTTʣ
    ڧΈ
    ऑΈ w Πϕϯτൃੜ͕ɺͦͷޙͷമ࿐΍؍࡯ظؒʹӨڹͯ͠͸ͳΒͳ͍
    

    View Slide

34. Maclure M.
    

    The case-crossover design: a method for studying transient
    effects on the risk of acute events.
    
    
    Am J Epidemiol. 1991 Jan 15;133(2):144–53.
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯɿ۩ମྫ
    Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    

    View Slide

35. Ϟνϕʔγϣϯ
    35
    ৺ے伷࠹ʢ.*ʣͷൃ঱ʹӨڹ͢Δൃ঱௚લͷཁҼΛௐ΂͍ͨʂ
    ଟ͘ͷ.*͸ɺൃ঱લͷ਺͔࣌ؒΒ਺೔ͷ׆ಈ͕Ҿ͖ۚʹͳͬͯΔͩΖ͏ɻ
    έʔείϯτϩʔϧݚڀΛܭը͠Α͏ɻ
    Ͱ΋ɺίϯτϩʔϧ܈ͷ৘ใΛूΊΔͷେมͩΑͶʜɻ
    έʔείϯτϩʔϧݚڀͰ͸ɺ
    

    έʔεͱίϯτϩ—ϧͷݪूஂ͕ಉ͡ඞཁ͕͋Δ
    έʔεͱಉ͡ݪूஂ͸ʁ έʔεࣗ਎
    ݪूஂ
    έʔε
    ίϯτϩʔϧ
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT
    

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    $BTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO
    

    View Slide

36. 36
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    32 ίʔώʔͷઁऔ͸ɺ.*ൃ঱ͷҾ͖ۚʹͳΔ͔ʁ
    ର৅ूஂ .*ൃ঱ͨ͠ਓ
    Ξ΢τΧϜʢΞϯΧʔʣ ৺ے伷࠹ʢ.*.ZPDBSEJBM*OGBSDUJPOʣ
    മ࿐ ίʔώʔઁऔ
    য఺ظؒʢ'PDBMXJOEPXʣ .*ൃ঱௚લͷ࣌ؒ
    ࢀরظؒʢ3FGFSFOUXJOEPXʣ աڈ೥ؒʢ.*ൃ঱௚લͷ࣌ؒΛআ͘ʣ
    ղੳ୯Ґ ࣌ؒ
    ϝϞ ΠϯλϏϡʔௐࠪʢ.*ൃ঱ޙɺதԝ஋೔Ͱฉ͖औΓʣ
    য఺ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ࣌ؒ ʜ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    ؍࡯ظؒʢ೥ؒʣ
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    

    View Slide

37. σʔλʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    37
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ
    

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕
    

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST EBZ
    NJOVUFT EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    .BDMVSF
    ͷදΛվม
    ೔ճҿΉ͔Β
    

    ೥ؒͰɺظ଴͞ΕΔয఺ظؒʢ࣌ؒʣ͸ճº೔࣌ؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔࢀরظؒʢ࣌ؒʣ͸೔º࣌ؒ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT
    

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    ࣌ؒ
    

    View Slide

38. σʔλͷΠϝʔδʢ*%ʣ
    38
    .*ൃ঱
    য఺ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ࣌ؒ ʜ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    ຖ೔ճҿΉਓ
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ
    

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕
    

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST EBZ
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF º
    
    

    View Slide

39. σʔλͷΠϝʔδʢ*%ʣ
    39
    .*ൃ঱
    য఺ظؒ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ࣌ؒ ʜ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ ࣌ؒ
    ϲ݄ʹճҿΉਓ
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ
    

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕
    

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST NPOUI
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF º
    
    

    View Slide

40. ݁Ռʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    40
    *%
    .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ
    

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕
    

    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒࢀরظؒ
    IPVST EBZ
    NJOVUFT EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST NPOUI
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    IPVST EBZ
    33.)
    13,517
    7,355
    = 1.8
    য఺ظؒʹ
    മ࿐͕͋ͬͨέʔεͷ
    

    ظ଴ࢀরظؒͷ࿨
    ࢀরظؒʹ
    മ࿐͕͋ͬͨέʔεͷ
    

    ظ଴য఺ظؒͷ࿨
    .BOUFM)BFOT[FMਪఆྔ
    3BUFSBUJP
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT
    

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    ίʔώʔઁऔ࣌ؒҎ಺ͷ.*ൃ঱཰ൺ
    

    View Slide

41. .BOUFM)BFO[FMਪఆྔʢ3BUFSBUJPʣᶃ
    41
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ 5PUBM
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ "J "J
    1FSTPOUJNF 5J 5J 5J
    RRMH
    =
    ∑N
    i=1
    A1i
    T0i
    /T+i
    ∑N
    i=1
    A0i
    T1i
    /T+i
    αϯϓϧαΠζ/
    Ұͭͷ૚͸ɺҰਓͷݸମͰ׬݁
    .BOUFM)BFOT[FMਪఆྔ
    ҰਓͻͱΓͷݸମΛ૚ͱߟ͑ͯɺ৘ใΛ଍͠ࠐΜͰ͍͘
    ݸମ಺ͰɺϚονϯά͍ͯ͠ΔΠϝʔδ
    

    View Slide

42. .BOUFM)BFO[FMਪఆྔʢ3BUFSBUJPʣᶄ
    42
    *% য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF
    *% য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ
    1FSTPOUJNF
    য఺ظؒ ࢀরظؒ 5PUBM
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐ظؒ "J "J
    1FSTPOUJNF 5J 5J 5J
    RRMH
    =
    ∑N
    i=1
    A1i
    T0i
    /T+i
    ∑N
    i=1
    A0i
    T1i
    /T+i
    RRMH
    =
    1 ⋅ 5116/8776 + 0 ⋅ 8730/8776
    0 ⋅ 3650/8776 + 1 ⋅ 36/8776
    *% *%
    = 142
    

    View Slide

43. ݁Ռͷهࡌʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    43
    33.)
    13,517
    7,360
    = 1.8
    'PSUIFPOFIPVSQFSJPEBGUFSESJOLJOHDP
    ff
    FF
    

    UIFSBUFSBUJPJT QFSDFOU$*
    
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT
    

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    

    View Slide

44. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯͷԾఆ
    44
    ᶃമ࿐ͷ෼෍͕ɺݚڀظؒத͸Ұఆ
    ຖ೔ճҿΉਓ
    ϲ݄ʹճҿΉਓ
    ᶃ`മ࿐֬཰͕ɺΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱ʹରͯ͠ɺ৚݅෇͖ಠཱ
    ˠଌఆ͞Εͨɺ࣌ؒมಈͷަབྷҼࢠ͸ௐ੔͠ͳ͚Ε͹ͳΒͳ͍
    w .JUUMFNBO." .PTUPGTLZ&&YDIBOHFBCJMJUZJOUIFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO*OU+&QJEFNJPM0DU
    r
    w (SFFOMBOE4$POGPVOEJOHBOEFYQPTVSFUSFOETJODBTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ.BZ
    r
    w .PTUPGTLZ& $PVMM#" .JUUMFNBO.""OBMZTJTPG0CTFSWBUJPOBM4FMGNBUDIFE%BUBUP&YBNJOF"DVUF5SJHHFSTPG0VUDPNF&WFOUTXJUI
    "CSVQU0OTFU&QJEFNJPMPHZ/PW
    r
    w -BTI5- 7BOEFS8FFMF5+ )BOFVTF4 3PUINBO,+.PEFSOFQJEFNJPMPHZ GPVSUIFEJUJPO8PMUFST,MVXFS
    ˠ৚݅෇͖ϩδεςΟοΫճؼϞσϧ͕ඞཁ
    

    View Slide

45. Wang SV, Schneeweiss S, Maclure M, Gagne JJ.
    

    “First-wave” bias when conducting active safety monitoring of
    newly marketed medications
    

    with outcome-indexed self-controlled designs.
    

    Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Sep 15;180(6):636–44.
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯɿ۩ମྫ
    Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    

    View Slide

46. 46
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    32 ৽نൢച͞ΕͨΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ
    

    ʢ߅ਫ਼ਆපༀʣͷ෰༻͸ɺ
    

    .*ൃ঱ͷҾ͖ۚʹͳΔ͔ʁ
    ɹࢢൢޙͷ෭࡞༻ௐࠪ
    ର৅ूஂ
    w .*ൃ঱ͨ͠ਓ
    w .*ൃ঱ͷϦεΫ͸͋Δະൃ঱ऀ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ
    ৺ے伷࠹
    

    ʢ.*.ZPDBSEJBM*OGBSDUJPOʣ
    മ࿐ ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ෰༻
    য఺ظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ࢀরظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલʙ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ղੳ୯Ґ ਓ
    ϝϞ
    OBUJPOBM.FEJDBJE"OBMZUJDF9USBDU
    อݥͷσʔλʢʙ೥ʣ
    σβΠϯʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣ
    
    
    
    
    ৽نൃച
    

    ʢʣ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ʜ
    ʜ
    ܧଓతͳϞχλϦϯά
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT
    

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    

    View Slide

47. 47
    ɹ݁Ռʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣᶃ
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT
    

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯͰղੳ
    ࢢൢޙ͙͢͸03ߴͯ͘ɺ
    

    ࣌ؒܦͭͱ௿͘ͳΔʁ
    

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48. ༀࡎӸֶͰى͜Γ΍͍͢όΠΞε
    48
    ৽نༀࡎ͸ɺമ࿐֬཰͕ҰఆͰ͸ͳ͍
    ࣌ؒ
    ༀࡎͷྲྀ௨ྔ
    
    ఆৗঢ়ଶ
    ༀࡎͷྲྀ௨ྔ͕ఆৗঢ়ଶʹࢸΔ·Ͱ͸ɺ
    

    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ͔Β
    

    ಘͨਪఆ஋͸όΠΞε͞ΕΔ
    'JSTUXBWFCJBT
    ඇఆৗঢ়ଶ
    

    View Slide

49. 49
    ूஂϨϕϧͷമ࿐܏޲͕มΘΔͱ͖ɺͲ͏͢Δ͔ʁ
    έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ
    $BTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHO
    ඇఆৗঢ়ଶ
    

    View Slide

50. έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ
    $BTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHO $5$
    
    

    View Slide

51. 51
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    32 ৽نൢച͞ΕͨΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ
    

    ʢ߅ਫ਼ਆපༀʣͷ෰༻͸ɺ
    

    .*ൃ঱ͷҾ͖ۚʹͳΔ͔ʁ
    ɹࢢൢޙͷ෭࡞༻ௐࠪ
    ର৅ूஂ
    w .*ൃ঱ͨ͠ਓ
    w .*ൃ঱ͷϦεΫ͸͋Δະൃ঱ऀ
    Ξ΢τΧϜ
    ৺ے伷࠹
    

    ʢ.*.ZPDBSEJBM*OGBSDUJPOʣ
    മ࿐ ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ෰༻
    য఺ظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ࢀরظؒ .*ൃ঱೔ͷલʙ೔ʢ೔ؒʣ
    ղੳ୯Ґ ਓ
    ϝϞ
    OBUJPOBM.FEJDBJE"OBMZUJDF9USBDU
    อݥͷσʔλʢʙ೥ʣ
    σβΠϯʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣ
    
    
    
    
    ৽نൃച
    

    ʢʣ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ճ໨ௐࠪ
    ʜ
    ʜ
    ܧଓతͳϞχλϦϯά
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT
    

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    

    View Slide

52. 52
    .*ൃ঱
    ΞϯΧʔ
    έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯʢ8BOH47ͷྫʣ
    
    
    
    
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT
    

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    έʔε
    
    
    
    
    ίϯτϩʔϧ
    ONBUDI
    w ೥ྸɺੑผͰέʔεͱϚονϯά
    w Ϛονϯάର৅ͷέʔεͷΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱೔ʢج४೔ʣʹ.*ͷϦεΫ͕͋Δ
    w ج४೔͔Β೔Ҏ্લ͔ΒҩྍอݥʹՃೖ͍ͯ͠Δ
    w য఺ظؒͱࢀরظؒ͸ɺϚονϯάͨ͠έʔεͱἧ͑Δ
    ORCCO(cases)
    ORCCO(controls)
    മ࿐ޙͷ
    

    Ξ΢τΧϜൃ঱ͷΦοζൺ
    ࢀরظؒʹର͢Δ
    

    য఺ظؒͷമ࿐Φοζൺ
    മ࿐֬཰্͕͕Δ
    മ࿐֬཰͕Լ͕Δ
    ௐ੔
    ORCCO(cases)
    ORCCO(controlss)
    ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ
    ΞϦϐϓϥκʔϧ
    ج४೔
    

    View Slide

53. 53
    ɹ݁Ռʢ8BOH47ͷྫɿҰ෦ʣᶄ
    8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++ɹl'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZNBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOT
    

    XJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    r
    ࣌ؒΛ௨ͯ͠OVMM
    

    View Slide

54. Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔσβΠϯͷ·ͱΊ
    54
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔ έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧ
    ࢖༻͢Δ৘ใ έʔεʢΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱ྫͷΈʣ
    w έʔεʢΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱ྫʣ
    w ίϯτϩʔϧ
    

    ʢΞ΢τΧϜඇൃ঱ྫʣ
    ղੳํ๏
    w .BOUFM)BFOT[FMਪఆ
    w ৚݅෇͖ϙΞιϯճؼ
    w ৚݅෇͖ϩδεςΟοΫճؼ
    w Ϛονϯά
    w ৚݅෇͖ϩδεςΟοΫճؼ
    Ծఆ
    w മ࿐܏޲͕Ұఆ
    w മ࿐ͱΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱͕৚݅෇͖ಠཱ
    w έʔεͱ
    

    ίϯτϩʔϧͷമ࿐܏޲͕ಉ͡
    w മ࿐ͱΞ΢τΧϜൃ঱͕৚݅෇͖ಠཱ
    ௕ॴ Ξ΢τΧϜൃ঱ྫͷ৘ใͷΈͰྑ͍ മ࿐܏޲Λௐ੔Ͱ͖Δ
    ୹ॴ മ࿐܏޲͕ఆৗঢ়ଶͰͳ͚Ε͹ͳΒͳ͍ ద੾ͳίϯτϩʔϧͷ৘ใ͕ඞཁ
    

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55. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯɿ
    σʔλͷܗͱ3Λ࢖ͬͨ౷ܭղੳ
    

    View Slide

56. ࢝఺ͱͳΔղੳ༻σʔλʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    56
    *% .*ൃ঱લͷ࠷ޙͷ
    

    ίʔώʔઁऔ
    ίʔώʔͷઁऔස౓ ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕
    

    য఺ظؒ
    ࠷ޙͷമ࿐͕
    ࢀরظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    য఺ظؒ
    ظ଴͞ΕΔ
    ࢀরظؒ
    ݚڀظؒ
    JE
    MBTU@FY@UJNF
    GSFR@FY
    GSFR@FY@VOJU
    GPDBM@FY
    SFG@FY
    5@GPDBM
    5@SFG
    5
    
    IPVST EBZ E
    NJOVUFT EBZ E
    IPVST NPOUI N
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST NPOUI N
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    IPVST EBZ E
    .BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
    FDUTPOUIFSJTLPGBDVUFFWFOUT
    

    "N+&QJEFNJPM+BO
    r
    ೖྗ ೖྗ ೖྗ ܭࢉ ೖྗ
    

    View Slide

57. ऴ఺ͱͳΔղੳ༻σʔλʢ.BDMVSFͷྫʣ
    57
    *% য఺ظؒ
    PSࢀরظؒ
    Ξ΢τΧϜͷൃ঱
    JE
    FYQPTVSF
    DBTF
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    ᶃ*%͝ͱͷFYQPTVSF
    ͕ରԠ͢Δظؒͷ਺͚ͩߦ͕͋Δ
    ߦ
    ߦ
    ߦ
    ߦ
    ᶄDBTFʹ͸ɺ·ͣ͢΂ͯΛೖΕΔ
    ᶅ֤JEɺ֤FYQPTVSFͷߦ໨ͷΈ
    

    ֤ظؒͷമ࿐ͷ༗ແʹରԠ͢ΔΑ͏ʹDBTFʹΛೖΕΔ
    Ξ΢τΧϜൃ঱͸ɺJE͝ͱʹճͷΈ͔ͩΒ
    ߦ
    ߦ
    

    View Slide

58. ղੳ༻σʔλ࡞੒ίʔυᶃ
    58
    
    ४උ
    
    σʔλೖྗ
    

    View Slide

59. ղੳ༻σʔλ࡞੒ίʔυᶄ
    59
    
    ੨͍෦෼ͷܭࢉ
    

    View Slide

60. ౷ܭղੳίʔυ
    60
    

    View Slide

61. ղੳ༻σʔλ࡞੒ίʔυᶅ
    61
    
    ऴ఺σʔληοτΛ࡞੒
    ᶃ*%͝ͱͷFYQPTVSF
    ͕ରԠ͢Δظؒͷ਺͚ͩߦ͕͋Δ
    ᶄDBTFʹ͸ɺ·ͣ͢΂ͯΛೖΕΔ
    ᶅ֤JEɺ֤FYQPTVSFͷߦ໨ͷΈ
    

    ֤ظؒͷമ࿐ͷ༗ແʹରԠ͢ΔΑ͏ʹDBTFʹΛೖΕΔ
    

    View Slide

62. ࣗݾରরݚڀσβΠϯͷ·ͱΊ
    

    View Slide

63. മ࿐ΞϯΧʔσβΠϯͱΞ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔσβΠϯͷ࢖͍෼͚ʢࢲݟʣ
    63
    മ࿐ΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ Ξ΢τΧϜΞϯΧʔͷσβΠϯ
    മ࿐͔ͯ͠Βɺ͍ͭΞ΢τΧϜ͕ൃੜ͔ͨ͠ʁ Ξ΢τΧϜൃੜͷલɺ͍ͭമ࿐͔ͨ͠ʁ
    ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯ έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋Δമ࿐͸Ұͭ
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΞ΢τΧϜͷछྨ͸ෳ਺
    w ʢྫɿϫΫνϯ઀छͱ͞·͟·ͳ෭൓Ԡʣ
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋Δമ࿐ͷछྨ͸ෳ਺
    w ؔ৺ͷ͋ΔΞ΢τΧϜ͸Ұͭ
    w ʢྫɿ৺ے伷࠹ͱ͞·͟·ͳമ࿐ʣ
    w ಛఆͷΞ΢τΧϜൃੜ঱ྫΛूΊͨ
    

    σʔλϕʔεʢ࣬ױϨδετϦʣͱ૬ੑ͕ྑ͍
    w ํ๏࿦ͷݚڀ͕ਐΜͰΔ w ํ๏࿦ͷݚڀ͕ਐΜͰͳ͍
    

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64. ࣗݾରরέʔεγϦʔζσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪ
    64
    w $BEBSFUUF4. .BDMVSF. %FMBOFZ+"$ 8IJUBLFS)+ )BZFT,/ 8BOH47 FUBM$POUSPMZPVSTFMG*41&FOEPSTFE
    HVJEBODFJOUIFBQQMJDBUJPOPGTFMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHOTJOQIBSNBDPFQJEFNJPMPHZ1IBSNBDPFQJEFNJPM%SVH4BG
    +VO
    rɹʲༀࡎӸֶͷཱ৔͔Βͷ·ͱΊʳ
    w 8IJUBLFS)+ 'BSSJOHUPO$1 4QJFTTFOT# .VTPOEB15VUPSJBMJOCJPTUBUJTUJDTUIFTFMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPE
    4UBU.FE.BZ
    rɹʲίʔυ෇͖νϡʔτϦΞϧʳ
    w )BMMBT+ 8IJUBLFS) %FMBOFZ+" $BEBSFUUF4. 1SBUU/ .BDMVSF.5IF6TFPG"DUJWF$PNQBSBUPSTJO4FMG$POUSPMMFE
    %FTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM0DU
    r777ɹʲ৽͍͠ϨϏϡʔʳ
    w 1FUFSTFO* %PVHMBT* 8IJUBLFS)4FMGDPOUSPMMFEDBTFTFSJFTNFUIPETBOBMUFSOBUJWFUPTUBOEBSEFQJEFNJPMPHJDBM
    TUVEZEFTJHOT#.+4FQJɹʲ୹͍ϨϏϡʔʳ
    w 'BSSJOHUPO1 8IJUBLFS) 8FMEFTFMBTTJF:(4FMG$POUSPMMFE$BTF4FSJFT4UVEJFT".PEFMMJOH(VJEFXJUI3$3$1SFTT
    QɹʲԞଜઌੜͷ͓͢͢Ίʳ
    

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65. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪᶃ
    65
    
    ֓؍Λ͔ͭΉ
    w $BEBSFUUF4. .BDMVSF. %FMBOFZ+"$ 8IJUBLFS)+ )BZFT,/ 8BOH47 FUBM$POUSPMZPVSTFMG*41&FOEPSTFE
    HVJEBODFJOUIFBQQMJDBUJPOPGTFMGDPOUSPMMFETUVEZEFTJHOTJOQIBSNBDPFQJEFNJPMPHZ1IBSNBDPFQJEFNJPM%SVH4BG
    +VO
    rɹʲༀࡎӸֶͷཱ৔͔Βͷ·ͱΊʳ
    w $BSSBDFEP.BSUÍOF[& 5BSBDJEP. 5PCJBT" 4BF[. 'JHVFJSBT"$BTFDSPTTPWFSBOBMZTJTPGBJSQPMMVUJPOIFBMUI
    F
    ff
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    rɹ
    ʲͲ͏ͳྖҬͰ࢖ΘΕ͍ͯΔ͔ɺͳΜͱͳ͘௫Ήʳ
    w )BTIFNJ/B[BSJ44 .BOTPVSOJB."$BTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMTUVEJFTDPODFQUT EFTJHO BOEBOBMZTJT+
    &QJEFNJPM#JPTUBU0DU
    rɹʲํ๏࿦ͷ·ͱΊͱͯ͠Θ͔Γ΍͘͢ஸೡɻ؆୯͕ͩ਺ࣜ΋σʔλͷܗ΋ࡌͬ
    ͍ͯΔɻͨͩ͜͠ͷ··Ͱ͸ղੳͰ͖ͳ͍ʳ
    w .PTUPGTLZ& $PVMM#" .JUUMFNBO.""OBMZTJTPG0CTFSWBUJPOBM4FMGNBUDIFE%BUBUP&YBNJOF"DVUF5SJHHFSTPG
    0VUDPNF&WFOUTXJUI"CSVQU0OTFU&QJEFNJPMPHZ/PW
    rɹʲෳ਺ͷσβΠϯͷํ๏࿦ϨϏϡʔͱͯ͠͸
    ࠷΋ৄ͍͠ɻ͔͠͠೉͍͠ɻ֤࿦Λษڧ͠ͳ͕ΒɺԿ౓΋ৼΓฦΔ΂͠ʳ
    

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66. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪᶄ
    66
    
    έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯ
    w ˒4IJPTBLBJ, ,BHJNVSB5$BTF$SPTTPWFS4UVEZ+BQBOFTF+PVSOBMPG1IBSNBDPFQJEFNJPMPHZ:BLV[BJFLJHBLV
    
    rɹʲ೔ຊޠจݙʳ
    w ˒.BDMVSF.5IFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBNFUIPEGPSTUVEZJOHUSBOTJFOUF
    ff
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    &QJEFNJPM+BO
    rɹʲΞ΢τΧϜ͕ΞϯΧʔͷࣗݾରরσβΠϯͷىݯͱͳΔ࿦จɻදͷ਺஋ʹͱ͜ΖͲ
    ͜Ζϛε͕͋ΔͷͰ஫ҙʳ
    w .JUUMFNBO." -FXJT3" .BDMVSF. 4IFSXPPE+# .VMMFS+&5SJHHFSJOHNZPDBSEJBMJOGBSDUJPOCZNBSJKVBOB
    $JSDVMBUJPO+VO
    rɹʲέʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛ࢖ͬͨݚڀͷ۩ମྫɻΘ͔Γ΍͍͢ʳ
    w .JUUMFNBO." .PTUPGTLZ&&YDIBOHFBCJMJUZJOUIFDBTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHO*OU+&QJEFNJPM0DU
    rɹ
    ʲόΠΞεͷߏ଄Λཧղ͢Δɻ%"(Λ͍ࣔͯ͠ΔͷͰཧղ͠΍͍͢ʳ
    w ;IBOH;$BTFDSPTTPWFSEFTJHOBOEJUTJNQMFNFOUBUJPOJO3"OO5SBOTM.FE4FQ
    ɹʲ3Λ࢖ͬͨղੳ
    νϡʔτϦΞϧ࿦จɻίʔυ͸ݹ͘ɺ෼͔ΓͮΒ͍ɻ͜ͷࢿྉͷίʔυݟͯʳ
    

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67. έʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔσβΠϯΛֶश͢ΔͨΊͷಓඪᶅ
    67
    
    έʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ
    w ˒8BOH47 4DIOFFXFJTT4 .BDMVSF. (BHOF++l'JSTUXBWFzCJBTXIFODPOEVDUJOHBDUJWFTBGFUZNPOJUPSJOHPGOFXMZ
    NBSLFUFENFEJDBUJPOTXJUIPVUDPNFJOEFYFETFMGDPOUSPMMFEEFTJHOT"N+&QJEFNJPM4FQ
    rɹ
    ʲέʔεΫϩεΦʔόʔͷऑΈΛཧղ্ͨ͠ͰɺέʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯͷϞνϕʔγϣϯ͕෼͔Δ۩ମྫɻʳ
    w 4VJTTB45IFDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHO&QJEFNJPMPHZ.BZ
    rɹʲέʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯͷى
    ݯͱͳΔ࿦จʳ
    w (SFFOMBOE4$POGPVOEJOHBOEFYQPTVSFUSFOETJODBTFDSPTTPWFSBOEDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ
    .BZ
    rɹʲ(SFFMBOE͔ΒέʔελΠϜίϯτϩʔϧσβΠϯ͕͏·͍͔͘ͳ͍ྫͷఏࣔʳ
    w 4VJTTB45IFDBTFUJNFDPOUSPMEFTJHOGVSUIFSBTTVNQUJPOTBOEDPOEJUJPOT&QJEFNJPMPHZ+VM
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