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疫学・統計セミナー:疾病と要因との関連
Shuntaro Sato
December 22, 2019
Science
1
55
疫学・統計セミナー:疾病と要因との関連
関連の指標には,主にリスク差,リスク比,オッズ比,および発生率比(率比)があります.これらについて説明しています.
Shuntaro Sato
December 22, 2019
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Transcript
1 ࣬පͱཁҼͱͷؔ࿈ $IVOUBSP !4IVOUBSPPP Ӹֶɾ౷ܭηϛφʔ w ϦεΫࠩ w ϦεΫൺ w
Φοζൺ w ൃੜൺ
͓͞Β͍ 2
ूஂதͷ࣬පൃੜͭͷࢦඪʢʣ 3 ࣬පͷൃੜجຊతʹͭͷࢦඪͰଌఆ͢Δ ൃੜׂ߹ʢ*1*ODJEFODFQSPQPSUJPOʣ ൃੜΦοζʢ0EET*ODJEFODF0EETʣ ൃੜʢ*3*ODJEFODFSBUFʣ
༗පʢ1SFWBMFODFʣ
ूஂதͷ࣬පൃੜͭͷࢦඪʢʣ 4 "͞Μ #͞Μ $͞Μ %͞Μ &͞Μ '͞Μ 0 1
2 3 4 5 Year ٤Ԏ ഏ͕Μͷൃੜ $2 ഏ͕Μͷൃੜ ࣄނࢮˠڝ߹ϦεΫ Ҿӽ͠ˠ-PTTUPGPMMPXVQ ൃੜׂ߹ ൃੜΦοζ ൃੜ IP = 3/6 Odds = (3/6)/(1 − 3/6) IR = 3/(3 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 2 + 2)
ൺֱ͢Δ 5
ԿΛൺֱ͢Δ͔ 6 ݚڀରूஂ മ࿐ʢհೖʣ͋Γ മ࿐ʢհೖʣͳ͠ˠඇമ࿐ w ͋Δݚڀରूஂʹ͓͚Δɼ മ࿐ɾඇമ࿐܈͝ͱͷ࣬පൃੜΛൺֱ͢Δ w ಘΒΕͨɼؔ࿈ͷఔΛࣔ͢
࣬පൃੜ / / " " ൃੜ࣌ؒ 5 5
ࠩʢ%J⒎FSFODFʣͱൺʢ3BUJPʣ 7 ൃੜׂ߹ʢ*1*ODJEFODFQSPQPSUJPOʣ ൃੜΦοζʢ0EET*ODJEFODF0EETʣ ൃੜʢ*3*ODJEFODFSBUFʣ ൃੜׂ߹ Φοζ
ൃੜ ࠩ ʢ%J⒎FSFODFʣ ϦεΫࠩ 3JTLEJ⒎FSFODF 3% 3BUFEJ⒎FSFODF ൺ ʢ3BUJPʣ ϦεΫൺ 3JTLSBUJP 33 Φοζൺ 0EETSBUJP 03 ൺ 3BUFSBUJP 33 ·ͱΊͯ૬ରϦεΫʢ3FMBUJWFSJTLʣͱݴ͏͜ͱ͋Δ͕ɼ ਪ͞Εͳ͍
%J⒎FSFODFNFBTVSF 8 ݚڀରूஂ മ࿐ ඇമ࿐ ࣬පൃੜ / / " "
ൃੜ࣌ؒ 5 5 ϦεΫࠩʢ3JTLEJ⒎FSFODFʣ RD = A1 N1 − A0 N0 w ΠϕϯτൃੜϦεΫͷ ઈରతͳ૿Ճʢ·ͨݮগʣΛࣔ͢ࢦඪ w ҧ͍͕ແ͍ͱ͖ɼ3% ൃੜࠩʢ*ODJEFODFSBUFEJ⒎FSFODFʣ Rate difference = A1 T1 − A0 T0 w Πϕϯτൃੜͷ ઈରతͳ૿Ճʢ·ͨݮগʣΛࣔ͢ࢦඪ w ҧ͍͕ແ͍ͱ͖ɼ3BUFEJ⒎FSFODF
3BUJPNFBTVSFʢʣ 9 ݚڀରूஂ മ࿐ ඇമ࿐ / / " " 5
5 ϦεΫൺʢ3JTLSBUJPʣ RR = A1 /N1 A0 /N0 = R1 R0 w ΠϕϯτൃੜϦεΫ͕Կഒʢ·ͨԿ ͷ̍ʣͱͳ͔ͬͨΛࣔ͢૬ରతͳࢦඪ w ҧ͍͕ແ͍ͱ͖ɼ33 Φοζൺʢ0EETSBUJPʣ OR = R1 /(1 − R1 ) R0 /(1 − R0 ) w ΠϕϯτൃੜΦοζ͕Կഒʢ·ͨԿ ͷ̍ʣͱͳ͔ͬͨΛࣔ͢૬ରతͳࢦඪ w ҧ͍͕ແ͍ͱ͖ɼ03
3BUJPNFBTVSFʢʣ 10 ݚڀରूஂ മ࿐ ඇമ࿐ / / " " 5
5 ൃੜൺʢSBUFSBUJP *ODJEFODFSBUFSBUJPʣ Rate ratio = A1 /T1 A0 /T0 w Πϕϯτൃੜ͕Կഒʢ·ͨԿͷ ̍ʣͱͳ͔ͬͨΛࣔ͢૬ରతͳࢦඪ w ҧ͍͕ແ͍ͱ͖ɼ3BUFSBUJP
ྫɿ3JTLSBUJP 33 11 Male Female With CHD 40 20 Without
CHD 60 80 Total 100 100 40 100 = 0.4 உੑʹ͓͚Δ$)%ͷϦεΫ 20 100 = 0.2 Կഒʁ ϦεΫൺʢ3JTL3BUJPʣ ঁੑʹର͢Δஉੑͷ$)%ͷϦεΫൺ 0.4 0.2 = 2 ϦεΫൺղऍ͍͢͠ ੑผ ףಈ຺৺࣬ױʢ$)%ʣ $2 ঁੑʹ͓͚Δ$)%ͷϦεΫ
ྫɿ0EETSBUJP 03 12 Male Female With CHD 40 20 Without
CHD 60 80 Total 100 100 40/100 60/100 = 40 60 = 0.67 20/100 80/100 = 20 80 = 0.25 Կഒʁ 0.67 0.25 = 2.7 Φοζൺղऍͮ͠Β͍ ੑผ ףಈ຺৺࣬ױʢ$)%ʣ $2 உੑʹ͓͚Δ$)%ͷΦοζ Φοζൺʢ0EET3BUJPʣ ঁੑʹର͢Δஉੑͷ$)%ͷΦοζൺ ঁੑʹ͓͚Δ$)%ͷΦοζ
ϦεΫൺͱΦοζൺ 13 • Φοζൺղऍͮ͠Β͍ • ؔ࿈ͷํੑϦεΫൺͱಉ͡ • رগ࣬ױͰ͋ΔͳΒɼΦοζൺϦεΫൺʹۙࣅͰ͖Δ Male Female
With CHD 20 40 Without CHD 80 60 Male Female With CHD 50 50 Without CHD 50 50 Male Female With CHD 40 20 Without CHD 60 80 33 03 33 03 33 03 33 03
5BLF)PNFNFTTBHF 14 w ؔ࿈ͷࢦඪʹɼओʹϦεΫࠩɼϦεΫൺɼΦοζൺɼ͓Αͼൃ ੜൺ͕͋Δ w ϦεΫൺͱΦοζൺࣅ͍ͯΔ͚ΕͲҧ͏
ࢀߟจݙ 3PUINBO ,+ (SFFOMBOE 4 -BTI 5- .PEFSOFQJEFNJPMPHZ
7PM 1IJMBEFMQIJB8PMUFST,MVXFS)FBMUI-JQQJODPUU8JMMJBNT8JMLJOT w Ӹֶʹ͍ͭͯ·ͱ·͍ͬͯΔɽҼՌਪʹॏ৺Λஔ͘ςΩετɽղɽ 3PUINBO ,+ ϩεϚϯͷӸֶՊֶతࢥߟͷ༠ࣰ͍ݪग़൛ࣾ w ΑΓ؆୯ͳ༰ +PIO .- "EJDUJPOBSZPGFQJEFNJPMPHZ0YGPSE6OJWFSTJUZ1SFTT w ࣙॻ͔ͩΒͦ͜ɼͱͯಡΈ͍͢ӳޠͰӸֶ༻ޠΛઆ໌͍ͯ͠Δ ୮ޙढ़࿕ দҪໜ೭ ৽൛ҩֶ౷ܭֶϋϯυϒοΫேॻళ ୮ޙढ़࿕ খఃଇ ҩֶ౷ܭֶͷࣄయேॻళ 15
16 $IVOUBSPͷ౷ܭɾӸֶνϟϯωϧ IUUQTXXXZPVUVCFDPNDIBOOFM 6$L8+QMZ4JLF4E.5M$G$L,+2