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Surveying the Landscape

Surveying the Landscape

An opinionated and incomplete look at trends in publishing and distribution on the web, and the threats and opportunities that are raised. #webrebels

Peter Gasston

June 02, 2016
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  1. Surveying the Landscape
    June ’16

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  2. I Am Peter Gasston
    Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio
    @stopsatgreen

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  3. The realistic danger isn’t that the web
    disappears, but that it gets marginalized.
    medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a
    Chris Dixon

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  4. Threats to the prosperity of the web
    Commoditisation
    Apps
    App-only Strategy
    Instant Apps
    Apple & Google
    Advertising / Tracking
    Monetisation
    Platforms
    Instant Articles
    Canvas Ads
    Bots
    Headless
    Voice UI
    Performance

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  5. Commoditisation
    Squarespace, Grid

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  6. Commoditisation of AI
    Watson, Cognitive Services

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  7. Apps
    Android, iOS

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  8. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

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  9. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is
    comparatively diminished. Slightly newer
    platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly
    touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it.
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
    John Herrman

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  10. App-only Strategy
    e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

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  11. Apple
    Universal links; static Safari

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  12. Android Instant Apps
    On-demand app fragments

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  13. Google Search (Android)
    Pages open in-app, not browser

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  14. Doorslams
    At best, very annoying

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  15. Advertising / Tracking
    Chilling Effect

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  16. secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

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  17. Nearly one in two internet users say
    privacy and security concerns have stopped
    them from doing basic things online.
    washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/

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  18. 22% of smartphone users
    block ads from mobile web.
    pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

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  19. kpcb.com/internet-trends

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  20. Ad-blockers reduced income from
    online advertising by $22bn in 2014.
    technologyreview.com/s/601581/how-ad-blockers-have-triggered-an-arms-race-on-the-web

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  21. Monetisation
    Collapse

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  22. In the first quarter of 2016, 85 cents of
    every new dollar spent in online advertising
    will go to Google or Facebook.
    nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html

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  23. Having a legacy business configured
    around a website is now almost as much
    of a headache as the rumbling printing
    press, fuelled by paper and money.
    theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile
    Emily Bell

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  24. The New Day
    No website.

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  25. The idea won’t be to start a website.
    That will be dead.

    The individual website won’t matter.
    forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/

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  26. The internet is not going to be about billions of
    people going to millions of websites. It will be
    about getting it from centralised websites.
    forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/
    Evan Williams

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  27. A lot of designers are still focused on
    building websites and I'm not sure
    that's a growth business anymore.
    mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites
    Jon Lax

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  28. Platforms
    Facebook, Medium

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  29. The trend of mobile has fundamentally changed
    the dynamics of how information is distributed.
    It turns out that people like feeds.
    mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites
    Jon Lax

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  30. portals
    search
    platforms
    1995-2001
    2002-2013
    2014-

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  31. Upload Complete
    The Awl
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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  32. Facebook… has gradually replaced, within its
    platform, parts of the web its users shared most:
    outside videos; outside articles; outside
    personal sites; outside listings; outside streams;
    soon, maybe, outside audio streams.
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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  33. The platforms that came of age
    on the web are leaving it behind.
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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  34. Understood from the perspective of the
    web, the last five years have represented
    a sort of tragedy of the commons.
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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  35. The platforms grew big and strong. Websites
    and publishers catered to the needs of those
    platforms, vague worries about control and
    identity set aside for the necessary pursuit of
    audience in an unpredictable environment.
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
    John Herrman

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  36. Upload Complete
    The Awl, on Medium
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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  37. The Next Billion
    4bn people online by 2018 (estimate)
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
    Social Media Messaging Internet

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  38. 108m people in India
    came online in 2015
    864m not yet online
    youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM

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  39. 1 hour of minimum wage
    Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India
    (estimate)
    Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters

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  40. whatdoesmysitecost.com

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  41. whatdoesmysitecost.com

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  42. 15% of avg. months income
    For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar
    (estimate)
    Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR

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  43. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody
    has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from
    top-up shops… They feel each megabyte.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812
    Craig Mod

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  44. Photo: Craig Mod

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  45. The Facebook-Loving
    Farmers of Myanmar
    The Atlantic
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

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  46. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other
    news apps or even Twitter: The content of many
    posts and news items live inside Facebook itself.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

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  47. Awareness of the internet in developing
    countries is very limited. In fact, for many
    users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often
    the only accessible application.
    qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
    Leo Mirani

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  48. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

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  49. As Facebook continues to ramp up their Instant
    Articles the amount of content that lives in
    Facebook will only increase. For those who are
    data sensitive, this is a clear virtue.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/
    Craig Mod

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  50. Instant Articles
    Apple News, AMP (e.g. Twitter)

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  51. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an
    average of eight seconds to load, by
    far the slowest single content type.
    media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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  52. Instant Articles makes the reading
    experience as much as ten times faster
    than standard mobile web articles.
    media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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  53. Canvas Ads
    Facebook
    canvas.facebook.com

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  54. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times
    faster than the standard mobile web.
    canvas.facebook.com

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  55. Messaging Platforms
    Messenger

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  56. Messaging apps are the new browsers.
    Anthony Green

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  57. At every time throughout the day, there is a
    touchpoint between WeChat and your normal life.
    medium.com/@katie/product-insights-from-wechat-97c51695e159
    Stephen Wang

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  58. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

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  59. Rise of the meta platforms
    and the new ‘web browser’
    Paul Kinlan
    paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms

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  60. Many of the platforms on mobile are
    choosing to host content within their
    own app experience and this is a direct
    and compelling threat to the web.
    paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
    Paul Kinlan

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  61. Bots
    Messenger, Telegram, Skype

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  62. Messaging apps are the new browsers,
    bots are the new web pages.
    Anthony Green

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  63. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

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  64. Headless
    Notifications

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  65. Voice / No UI
    Echo, Google Home

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  66. Wow… that was heavy.

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  67. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

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  68. The best way to reach new consumers
    is through the open web.
    Jason Karaian

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  69. Electron
    Web-tech desktop apps

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  70. If you want apps that work like the web,
    the web is still your best choice.
    wired.com/2016/03/apple-ios-9s-universal-links-recall-the-bad-old-days-of-internet-explorer
    Klint Finley

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  71. Progressive Web Apps
    Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST
    developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

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  72. App-only Strategy
    Flipkart, Myrna

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  73. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

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  74. Flipkart Lite
    70% increase in conversions
    from home screen icon

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  75. Patagonia
    End-of-life for iPhone app

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  76. Physical Web
    Nearby Notifications

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  77. Web Bluetooth
    Pair with BLE devices

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  78. I believe that WeChat is an incredible
    driver for adoption of mobile web
    development techniques.
    medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8

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  79. While in the West companies are still
    native-first (usually iOS-first), in China
    the most important presence one may
    have is a mobile-optimised website.
    medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8
    Alessio Basso

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  80. Light Apps
    ᫷ଫአ
    liveapp.cn/case

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  81. Light apps are often single-page, single-
    message and intended to be single-use.
    smashingmagazine.com/2015/02/china-web-design-trends-2015
    Kendra Schaefer

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  82. Web VR
    Oculus, Cardboard, etc

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  83. Technology does not have intrinsic value.
    It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we
    experience the world around us.
    wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar
    Yves Behar

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  84. Technology does not have intrinsic value.
    It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we
    experience the world around us.
    wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar
    Yves Behar

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  85. If we are going to continue to use “the web”
    as a label then it needs to represent a 20+
    year vision that transcends web browsers.
    wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459
    Allen Wirfs-Brock

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  86. A containerized, embeddable article that
    travels to any site with brand, revenue,
    analytics, and links attached.
    medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799
    Kevin Kelly

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  87. The universally accessible, multi-device and
    multi-context web is there to enhance native
    infrastructure — not the other way around.
    medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799
    Stephanie Rieger

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  88. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

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  89. I Am Peter Gasston
    @stopsatgreen

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