Surveying the Landscape

Surveying the Landscape

An opinionated and incomplete look at trends in publishing and distribution on the web, and the threats and opportunities that are raised. #webrebels

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Peter Gasston

June 02, 2016
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Transcript

  1. Surveying the Landscape June ’16

  2. I Am Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen

  3. None
  4. None
  5. The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that

    it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon
  6. Threats to the prosperity of the web Commoditisation Apps App-only

    Strategy Instant Apps Apple & Google Advertising / Tracking Monetisation Platforms Instant Articles Canvas Ads Bots Headless Voice UI Performance
  7. Commoditisation Squarespace, Grid

  8. Commoditisation of AI Watson, Cognitive Services

  9. None
  10. Apps Android, iOS

  11. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

  12. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished.

    Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  13. App-only Strategy e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

  14. Apple Universal links; static Safari

  15. Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments

  16. None
  17. Google Search (Android) Pages open in-app, not browser

  18. Doorslams At best, very annoying

  19. Advertising / Tracking Chilling Effect

  20. secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

  21. Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security

    concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
  22. 22% of smartphone users block ads from mobile web. pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

  23. kpcb.com/internet-trends

  24. Ad-blockers reduced income from online advertising by $22bn in 2014.

    technologyreview.com/s/601581/how-ad-blockers-have-triggered-an-arms-race-on-the-web
  25. Monetisation Collapse

  26. In the first quarter of 2016, 85 cents of every

    new dollar spent in online advertising will go to Google or Facebook. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html
  27. Having a legacy business configured around a website is now

    almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell
  28. The New Day No website.

  29. The idea won’t be to start a website. That will

    be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ …
  30. The internet is not going to be about billions of

    people going to millions of websites. It will be about getting it from centralised websites. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams
  31. A lot of designers are still focused on building websites

    and I'm not sure that's a growth business anymore. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax
  32. Platforms Facebook, Medium

  33. The trend of mobile has fundamentally changed the dynamics of

    how information is distributed. It turns out that people like feeds. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax
  34. portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-

  35. Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

  36. Facebook… has gradually replaced, within its platform, parts of the

    web its users shared most: outside videos; outside articles; outside personal sites; outside listings; outside streams; soon, maybe, outside audio streams. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  37. The platforms that came of age on the web are

    leaving it behind. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  38. Understood from the perspective of the web, the last five

    years have represented a sort of tragedy of the commons. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  39. The platforms grew big and strong. Websites and publishers catered

    to the needs of those platforms, vague worries about control and identity set aside for the necessary pursuit of audience in an unpredictable environment. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  40. Upload Complete The Awl, on Medium theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

  41. The Next Billion 4bn people online by 2018 (estimate) 0

    1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet
  42. 108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not

    yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
  43. 1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web

    pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
  44. whatdoesmysitecost.com

  45. whatdoesmysitecost.com

  46. 15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in

    Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
  47. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit

    card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod
  48. Photo: Craig Mod

  49. The Facebook-Loving Farmers of Myanmar The Atlantic theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

  50. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or

    even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 …
  51. Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited.

    In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani
  52. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

  53. As Facebook continues to ramp up their Instant Articles the

    amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
  54. Instant Articles Apple News, AMP (e.g. Twitter)

  55. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds

    to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  56. Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten

    times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  57. Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com

  58. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than

    the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com
  59. Messaging Platforms Messenger

  60. Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green

  61. WeChat ஙמ

  62. At every time throughout the day, there is a touchpoint

    between WeChat and your normal life. medium.com/@katie/product-insights-from-wechat-97c51695e159 Stephen Wang
  63. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

  64. Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’

    Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
  65. None
  66. Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host

    content within their own app experience and this is a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan
  67. None
  68. Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype

  69. Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new

    web pages. Anthony Green
  70. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

  71. Headless Notifications

  72. Voice / No UI Echo, Google Home

  73. Wow… that was heavy.

  74. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

  75. The best way to reach new consumers is through the

    open web. Jason Karaian
  76. None
  77. Electron Web-tech desktop apps

  78. If you want apps that work like the web, the

    web is still your best choice. wired.com/2016/03/apple-ios-9s-universal-links-recall-the-bad-old-days-of-internet-explorer Klint Finley
  79. None
  80. None
  81. Progressive Web Apps Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

  82. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

  83. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

  84. None
  85. Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon

  86. Patagonia End-of-life for iPhone app

  87. Physical Web Nearby Notifications

  88. Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices

  89. WeChat ஙמ

  90. I believe that WeChat is an incredible driver for adoption

    of mobile web development techniques. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 …
  91. While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first),

    in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso
  92. Light Apps ᫷ଫአ liveapp.cn/case

  93. Light apps are often single-page, single- message and intended to

    be single-use. smashingmagazine.com/2015/02/china-web-design-trends-2015 Kendra Schaefer
  94. Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc

  95. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  96. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  97. If we are going to continue to use “the web”

    as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock
  98. A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with

    brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly
  99. The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to

    enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger
  100. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

  101. I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen