Surveying the Landscape

An opinionated and incomplete look at trends in publishing and distribution on the web, and the threats and opportunities that are raised. #webrebels

Transcript

1. Surveying the Landscape June ’16
2. I Am Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen
5. The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon
6. Threats to the prosperity of the web Commoditisation Apps App-only Strategy Instant Apps Apple & Google Advertising / Tracking Monetisation Platforms Instant Articles Canvas Ads Bots Headless Voice UI Performance
7. Commoditisation Squarespace, Grid
8. Commoditisation of AI Watson, Cognitive Services
10. Apps Android, iOS
11. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857
12. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished. Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
13. App-only Strategy e.g. Myntra, Flipkart
14. Apple Universal links; static Safari
15. Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments
17. Google Search (Android) Pages open in-app, not browser
18. Doorslams At best, very annoying
19. Advertising / Tracking Chilling Effect
20. secretmedia.com/secretmedianews
21. Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
22. 22% of smartphone users block ads from mobile web. pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report
23. kpcb.com/internet-trends
24. Ad-blockers reduced income from online advertising by $22bn in 2014. technologyreview.com/s/601581/how-ad-blockers-have-triggered-an-arms-race-on-the-web
25. Monetisation Collapse
26. In the first quarter of 2016, 85 cents of every new dollar spent in online advertising will go to Google or Facebook. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html
27. Having a legacy business configured around a website is now almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell
28. The New Day No website.
29. The idea won’t be to start a website. That will be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ …
30. The internet is not going to be about billions of people going to millions of websites. It will be about getting it from centralised websites. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams
31. A lot of designers are still focused on building websites and I'm not sure that's a growth business anymore. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax
32. Platforms Facebook, Medium
33. The trend of mobile has fundamentally changed the dynamics of how information is distributed. It turns out that people like feeds. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax
34. portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-
35. Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
36. Facebook… has gradually replaced, within its platform, parts of the web its users shared most: outside videos; outside articles; outside personal sites; outside listings; outside streams; soon, maybe, outside audio streams. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
37. The platforms that came of age on the web are leaving it behind. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
38. Understood from the perspective of the web, the last five years have represented a sort of tragedy of the commons. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
39. The platforms grew big and strong. Websites and publishers catered to the needs of those platforms, vague worries about control and identity set aside for the necessary pursuit of audience in an unpredictable environment. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
40. Upload Complete The Awl, on Medium theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
41. The Next Billion 4bn people online by 2018 (estimate) 0 1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet
42. 108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
43. 1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
44. whatdoesmysitecost.com
45. whatdoesmysitecost.com
46. 15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
47. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod
48. Photo: Craig Mod
49. The Facebook-Loving Farmers of Myanmar The Atlantic theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812
50. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 …
51. Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited. In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani
52. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
53. As Facebook continues to ramp up their Instant Articles the amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
54. Instant Articles Apple News, AMP (e.g. Twitter)
55. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
56. Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
57. Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com
58. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com
59. Messaging Platforms Messenger
60. Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green
61. WeChat ஙמ
62. At every time throughout the day, there is a touchpoint between WeChat and your normal life. medium.com/@katie/product-insights-from-wechat-97c51695e159 Stephen Wang
63. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
64. Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’ Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
66. Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host content within their own app experience and this is a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan
68. Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype
69. Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new web pages. Anthony Green
70. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264
71. Headless Notifications
72. Voice / No UI Echo, Google Home
73. Wow… that was heavy.
74. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577
75. The best way to reach new consumers is through the open web. Jason Karaian
77. Electron Web-tech desktop apps
78. If you want apps that work like the web, the web is still your best choice. wired.com/2016/03/apple-ios-9s-universal-links-recall-the-bad-old-days-of-internet-explorer Klint Finley
81. Progressive Web Apps Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps
82. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna
83. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360
85. Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon
86. Patagonia End-of-life for iPhone app
87. Physical Web Nearby Notifications
88. Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices
89. WeChat ஙמ
90. I believe that WeChat is an incredible driver for adoption of mobile web development techniques. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 …
91. While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first), in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso
92. Light Apps ᫷ଫአ liveapp.cn/case
93. Light apps are often single-page, single- message and intended to be single-use. smashingmagazine.com/2015/02/china-web-design-trends-2015 Kendra Schaefer
94. Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc
95. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
96. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
97. If we are going to continue to use “the web” as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock
98. A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly
99. The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger
100. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089
101. I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen