I Am Grout

I Am Grout

Threats and opportunities on the web. #talkwd16 & #upfrontconf, May 2016.

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Peter Gasston

May 27, 2016
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Transcript

  1. I Am Grout May ’16

  2. I Am Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen

  3. None
  4. None
  5. The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that

    it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon
  6. Threats to the prosperity of the web Commoditization Apps App-only

    Strategy Instant Apps Apple & Google Advertising / Tracking Monetisation Platforms Instant Articles Canvas Ads Bots Conversational UI Headless Performance
  7. Commoditisation of Design Squarespace, Grid

  8. Commoditisation of AI Squarespace, Grid

  9. geocitiesforever.com

  10. None
  11. Apps Android, iOS

  12. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

  13. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished.

    Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  14. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

  15. Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments

  16. Google App for Android Pages open in-app, not browser

  17. Apple News And static Safari

  18. Advertising Annoying to dangerous

  19. Between 18% and 79% of data downloaded was from ads.

    theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/16/ad-blocking-advertising-half-of-data-used-articles
  20. Tracking Chilling Effect

  21. Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security

    concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
  22. 22% of UK adults aged 25-44 are currently using ad

    blocking software. Rising to 47% in adults aged 18-24. warc.com/News/Default.aspx?ID=36310
  23. In the first quarter of 2016, 85 cents of every

    new dollar spent in online advertising will go to Google or Facebook. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html
  24. Monetisation Collapse

  25. Having a legacy business configured around a website is now

    almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell
  26. The New Day No website.

  27. The idea won’t be to start a website. That will

    be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ …
  28. The internet is not going to be about billions of

    people going to millions of websites. It will be about getting it from centralised websites. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams
  29. Platforms Facebook, Medium

  30. portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-

  31. Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

  32. Facebook… has gradually replaced, within its platform, parts of the

    web its users shared most: outside videos; outside articles; outside personal sites; outside listings; outside streams; soon, maybe, outside audio streams. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  33. The platforms that came of age on the web are

    leaving it behind. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  34. Understood from the perspective of the web, the last five

    years have represented a sort of tragedy of the commons. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  35. The platforms grew big and strong. Websites and publishers catered

    to the needs of those platforms, vague worries about control and identity set aside for the necessary pursuit of audience in an unpredictable environment. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  36. Upload Complete The Awl, on Medium

  37. The Next Billion 4bn people online by 2018 (estimate) 0

    1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet
  38. 108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not

    yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
  39. 1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web

    pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
  40. whatdoesmysitecost.com

  41. whatdoesmysitecost.com

  42. 15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in

    Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
  43. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit

    card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
  44. Photo: Craig Mod

  45. Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited.

    In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani
  46. None
  47. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or

    even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ …
  48. As Facebook continues to ramp up their Instant Articles the

    amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
  49. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds

    to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  50. Instant Articles AMP, Apple News

  51. Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten

    times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  52. Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com

  53. A fast-loading and seamless experience on Android and iOS. Canvas

    loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com
  54. Messaging Platforms Messenger

  55. Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green

  56. WeChat ஙמ

  57. At every time throughout the day, there is a touchpoint

    between WeChat and your normal life. medium.com/@katie/product-insights-from-wechat-97c51695e159
  58. Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’

    Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
  59. None
  60. Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host

    content within their own app experience and this is in my opinion a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan
  61. None
  62. We are in a position where we know what to

    do to make nearly any website really damn fast. But websites are still slow. Why? peterchamberlin.com/fast.php …
  63. The problem is that performance is a feature that is

    not on anyone’s product roadmap. peterchamberlin.com/fast.php Peter Chamberlin
  64. Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype

  65. Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new

    web pages. Anthony Green
  66. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

  67. Conversational / No UI Echo, Google Home

  68. Headless Notifications

  69. Wow… that was heavy.

  70. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

  71. The best way to reach new consumers is through the

    open web. Jason Karaian
  72. None
  73. Electron Web-tech desktop apps

  74. If you want apps that work like the web, the

    web is still your best choice. wired.com/2016/03/apple-ios-9s-universal-links-recall-the-bad-old-days-of-internet-explorer Klint Finley
  75. None
  76. None
  77. Progressive Web Apps Fast, Engaging, Installable, Shareable developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

  78. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

  79. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

  80. None
  81. Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon

  82. Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc

  83. Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices

  84. Physical Web Nearby Notifications

  85. None
  86. WeChat ஙמ

  87. I believe that WeChat is an incredible driver for adoption

    of mobile web development techniques. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 …
  88. While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first),

    in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso
  89. None
  90. Light Apps ᫷ଫአ liveapp.cn/case

  91. Light apps are often single-page, single- message and intended to

    be single-use. smashingmagazine.com/2015/02/china-web-design-trends-2015 Kendra Schaefer
  92. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

  93. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  94. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  95. If we are going to continue to use “the web”

    as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends http and web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock
  96. A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with

    brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly
  97. The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to

    enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger
  98. I am Grout.

  99. I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen