I Am Grout

Threats and opportunities on the web. #talkwd16 & #upfrontconf, May 2016.

Transcript

1. I Am Grout May ’16
2. I Am Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen
5. The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon
6. Threats to the prosperity of the web Commoditization Apps App-only Strategy Instant Apps Apple & Google Advertising / Tracking Monetisation Platforms Instant Articles Canvas Ads Bots Conversational UI Headless Performance
7. Commoditisation of Design Squarespace, Grid
8. Commoditisation of AI Squarespace, Grid
9. geocitiesforever.com
11. Apps Android, iOS
12. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857
13. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished. Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
14. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna
15. Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments
16. Google App for Android Pages open in-app, not browser
17. Apple News And static Safari
18. Advertising Annoying to dangerous
19. Between 18% and 79% of data downloaded was from ads. theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/16/ad-blocking-advertising-half-of-data-used-articles
20. Tracking Chilling Effect
21. Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
22. 22% of UK adults aged 25-44 are currently using ad blocking software. Rising to 47% in adults aged 18-24. warc.com/News/Default.aspx?ID=36310
23. In the first quarter of 2016, 85 cents of every new dollar spent in online advertising will go to Google or Facebook. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html
24. Monetisation Collapse
25. Having a legacy business configured around a website is now almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell
26. The New Day No website.
27. The idea won’t be to start a website. That will be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ …
28. The internet is not going to be about billions of people going to millions of websites. It will be about getting it from centralised websites. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams
29. Platforms Facebook, Medium
30. portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-
31. Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
32. Facebook… has gradually replaced, within its platform, parts of the web its users shared most: outside videos; outside articles; outside personal sites; outside listings; outside streams; soon, maybe, outside audio streams. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
33. The platforms that came of age on the web are leaving it behind. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
34. Understood from the perspective of the web, the last five years have represented a sort of tragedy of the commons. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
35. The platforms grew big and strong. Websites and publishers catered to the needs of those platforms, vague worries about control and identity set aside for the necessary pursuit of audience in an unpredictable environment. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
36. Upload Complete The Awl, on Medium
37. The Next Billion 4bn people online by 2018 (estimate) 0 1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet
38. 108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
39. 1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
40. whatdoesmysitecost.com
41. whatdoesmysitecost.com
42. 15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
43. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
44. Photo: Craig Mod
45. Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited. In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani
47. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ …
48. As Facebook continues to ramp up their Instant Articles the amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
49. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
50. Instant Articles AMP, Apple News
51. Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
52. Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com
53. A fast-loading and seamless experience on Android and iOS. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com
54. Messaging Platforms Messenger
55. Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green
56. WeChat ஙמ
57. At every time throughout the day, there is a touchpoint between WeChat and your normal life. medium.com/@katie/product-insights-from-wechat-97c51695e159
58. Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’ Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
60. Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host content within their own app experience and this is in my opinion a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan
62. We are in a position where we know what to do to make nearly any website really damn fast. But websites are still slow. Why? peterchamberlin.com/fast.php …
63. The problem is that performance is a feature that is not on anyone’s product roadmap. peterchamberlin.com/fast.php Peter Chamberlin
64. Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype
65. Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new web pages. Anthony Green
66. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264
67. Conversational / No UI Echo, Google Home
68. Headless Notifications
69. Wow… that was heavy.
70. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577
71. The best way to reach new consumers is through the open web. Jason Karaian
73. Electron Web-tech desktop apps
74. If you want apps that work like the web, the web is still your best choice. wired.com/2016/03/apple-ios-9s-universal-links-recall-the-bad-old-days-of-internet-explorer Klint Finley
77. Progressive Web Apps Fast, Engaging, Installable, Shareable developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps
78. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna
79. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360
81. Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon
82. Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc
83. Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices
84. Physical Web Nearby Notifications
86. WeChat ஙמ
87. I believe that WeChat is an incredible driver for adoption of mobile web development techniques. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 …
88. While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first), in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso
90. Light Apps ᫷ଫአ liveapp.cn/case
91. Light apps are often single-page, single- message and intended to be single-use. smashingmagazine.com/2015/02/china-web-design-trends-2015 Kendra Schaefer
92. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089
93. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
94. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
95. If we are going to continue to use “the web” as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends http and web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock
96. A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly
97. The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger
98. I am Grout.
99. I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen