I Am Grout

I Am Grout

Threats and opportunities on the web. #talkwd16 & #upfrontconf, May 2016.

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Peter Gasston

May 27, 2016
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Transcript

  1. 3.
  2. 4.
  3. 5.

    The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that

    it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon
  4. 6.

    Threats to the prosperity of the web Commoditization Apps App-only

    Strategy Instant Apps Apple & Google Advertising / Tracking Monetisation Platforms Instant Articles Canvas Ads Bots Conversational UI Headless Performance
  5. 10.
  6. 13.

    In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished.

    Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  7. 19.

    Between 18% and 79% of data downloaded was from ads.

    theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/16/ad-blocking-advertising-half-of-data-used-articles
  8. 21.

    Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security

    concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
  9. 22.

    22% of UK adults aged 25-44 are currently using ad

    blocking software. Rising to 47% in adults aged 18-24. warc.com/News/Default.aspx?ID=36310
  10. 23.

    In the first quarter of 2016, 85 cents of every

    new dollar spent in online advertising will go to Google or Facebook. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html
  11. 25.

    Having a legacy business configured around a website is now

    almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell
  12. 27.

    The idea won’t be to start a website. That will

    be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ …
  13. 28.

    The internet is not going to be about billions of

    people going to millions of websites. It will be about getting it from centralised websites. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams
  14. 32.

    Facebook… has gradually replaced, within its platform, parts of the

    web its users shared most: outside videos; outside articles; outside personal sites; outside listings; outside streams; soon, maybe, outside audio streams. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  15. 33.

    The platforms that came of age on the web are

    leaving it behind. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  16. 34.

    Understood from the perspective of the web, the last five

    years have represented a sort of tragedy of the commons. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …
  17. 35.

    The platforms grew big and strong. Websites and publishers catered

    to the needs of those platforms, vague worries about control and identity set aside for the necessary pursuit of audience in an unpredictable environment. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  18. 37.

    The Next Billion 4bn people online by 2018 (estimate) 0

    1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet
  19. 38.

    108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not

    yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
  20. 39.

    1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web

    pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
  21. 42.

    15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in

    Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
  22. 43.

    The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit

    card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
  23. 45.

    Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited.

    In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani
  24. 46.
  25. 47.

    Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or

    even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ …
  26. 48.

    As Facebook continues to ramp up their Instant Articles the

    amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
  27. 49.

    Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds

    to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  28. 51.

    Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten

    times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  29. 53.

    A fast-loading and seamless experience on Android and iOS. Canvas

    loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com
  30. 57.

    At every time throughout the day, there is a touchpoint

    between WeChat and your normal life. medium.com/@katie/product-insights-from-wechat-97c51695e159
  31. 58.

    Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’

    Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
  32. 59.
  33. 60.

    Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host

    content within their own app experience and this is in my opinion a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan
  34. 61.
  35. 62.

    We are in a position where we know what to

    do to make nearly any website really damn fast. But websites are still slow. Why? peterchamberlin.com/fast.php …
  36. 63.

    The problem is that performance is a feature that is

    not on anyone’s product roadmap. peterchamberlin.com/fast.php Peter Chamberlin
  37. 72.
  38. 74.

    If you want apps that work like the web, the

    web is still your best choice. wired.com/2016/03/apple-ios-9s-universal-links-recall-the-bad-old-days-of-internet-explorer Klint Finley
  39. 75.
  40. 76.
  41. 80.
  42. 85.
  43. 87.

    I believe that WeChat is an incredible driver for adoption

    of mobile web development techniques. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 …
  44. 88.

    While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first),

    in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso
  45. 89.
  46. 91.

    Light apps are often single-page, single- message and intended to

    be single-use. smashingmagazine.com/2015/02/china-web-design-trends-2015 Kendra Schaefer
  47. 93.

    Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  48. 94.

    Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  49. 95.

    If we are going to continue to use “the web”

    as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends http and web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock
  50. 96.

    A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with

    brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly
  51. 97.

    The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to

    enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger