Surveying the Landscape - Fronteers

Surveying the Landscape - Fronteers

A look at the current online landscape, and the role of the web. Opinionated and incomplete.

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Peter Gasston

October 06, 2016
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Transcript

  1. Surveying the Landscape October 2016

  2. Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen

  3. None
  4. The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that

    it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon
  5. Apps Android, iOS

  6. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished.

    Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  7. App-only Strategy e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

  8. None
  9. Apple Universal links

  10. Doorslams At best, very annoying

  11. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

  12. Advertising And worse, tracking

  13. secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

  14. Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security

    concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
  15. 21% of smartphone users block ads from mobile web. pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

  16. Global economic cost of using ad blockers 2013 2014 2015

    2016 wordstream.com/blog/ws/2015/10/02/ad-blockers $7.2bn $11.7bn $21.8bn $41.4bn
  17. Monetisation Free, ad-supported isn’t sustainable

  18. Having a legacy business configured around a website is now

    almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell
  19. The New Day Launched with no website.

  20. The idea won’t be to start a website. That will

    be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams
  21. None
  22. Running our own blog system is a classic case of

    the cobbler’s shoe syndrome. m.signalvnoise.com/signal-v-noise-moves-to-medium-c8083ce19686 David Heinemeier Hansson
  23. A lot of designers are still focused on building websites

    and I'm not sure that's a growth business anymore. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites …
  24. Mobile has fundamentally changed the dynamics of how information is

    distributed. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax
  25. Industry Changes Acquisitions, closures

  26. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html Everyone else New $ spent in US online advertising,

    Q1 2016
  27. Facebook 1.7bn monthly active users 3.45bn 1.7bn

  28. portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-

  29. Platforms Medium, Twitter, iOS, esp. Facebook

  30. Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

  31. A company that can claim nearly every internet-using adult as

    a user is less a partner than a context. nytimes.com/2016/08/28/magazine/inside-facebooks-totally-insane-unintentionally-gigantic-hyperpartisan-political-media-machine.html John Herrman
  32. The new technologies of the 20th century eventually evolved into

    privately controlled industrial behemoths through which the flow and nature of content would be strictly controlled. The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires Tim Wu
  33. 0 1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet
  34. 108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not

    yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
  35. 1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web

    pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
  36. 15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in

    Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
  37. The Facebook-Loving Farmers of Myanmar The Atlantic theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

  38. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit

    card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 …
  39. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or

    even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod
  40. Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited.

    In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani
  41. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Self-identified internet users and Facebook users per 100 people

    0 12.5 25 37.5 50 Indonesia Philippines Thailand Internet Facebook
  42. The amount of content that lives in Facebook will only

    increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
  43. Instant Articles Stories rendered in Facebook UI

  44. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds

    to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  45. Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten

    times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  46. Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’

    Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
  47. None
  48. Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host

    content within their own app and this is a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan
  49. AMP?

  50. Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com

  51. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than

    the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com
  52. The more it succeeds, the more Facebook warps a universe

    of internet content, industry norms, and consumer habits around itself.
 Facebook in effect becomes the mobile internet. wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/ Davey Alba
  53. Shopping & Services Facebook venturebeat.com/2016/08/03/facebook-adds-shopping-and-services-sections-to-pages

  54. In a way, Facebook [has] made the browser wars irrelevant

    by essentially itself becoming the browser. medium.freecodecamp.com/ghost-in-the-machine-snapchat-isnt-mobile-first-it-s-something-else-entirely-4f6c265152a2 Ben Basche
  55. Dominant Social Platforms ஙמ (WeChat), Line, Kakao

  56. Share of daily mobile time spent
 (approx. 200mins), China, April

    2016. All other Baidu Alibaba Tencent other QQ WeChat kpcb.com/blog/2016-internet-trends-report
  57. Messaging Platforms Messenger, Kik, Slack

  58. Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green

  59. Daily and weekly use cases dominate the apps that get

    downloaded and used. But what about the software we use less often… … news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1
  60. … the brands we may interact with once only every

    few months, or spontaneously when we don’t have a fast connection? Sarah Guo news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1
  61. Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype

  62. Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new

    web pages. Anthony Green
  63. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

  64. Apps in Messaging iMessage, Allo, FB Messenger

  65. Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments

  66. Voice / No UI Echo, Google Home

  67. Wow… that was heavy.

  68. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

  69. Avg. time spent per month in mobile apps Mobile App

    Most-used App Next 4 Most-used All Others Mobile Web twitter.com/lukew/status/783352086553473024 188.6 mins 84.7 mins 73.7 mins 30.1 mins 9.3 mins
  70. The best way to reach new consumers is through the

    open web. Jason Karaian
  71. Access method for mobile shoppers % France Italy Spain UK

    Germany 52.1 59.3 43.1 44.7 41.9 60.1 60.5 66.4 66.6 67.3 Browser App comscore.com/Insights/Data-Mine/Mobile-App-vs-Mobile-Browser
  72. WeChat ஙמ

  73. While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first),

    in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso
  74. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

  75. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

  76. None
  77. Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon

  78. Progressive Web Apps Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

  79. wired.com/2016/04/wait-web-isnt-really-dead-google-made-sure

  80. None
  81. twitter.com/beep/status/741335390964092928

  82. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  83. Physical Web Nearby Notifications

  84. Physical Web Nearby Notifications

  85. Rich local discovery Contextual actions expressed in site

  86. None
  87. Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices

  88. Choosing the web to enable experiences in the physical world

    doesn’t just expand the possibility space for IoT, it compels us to re-think the very shape of the web… slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people …
  89. … from a network of monolithic ‘destinations’ to one of

    small, non-linear, distributed, and serendipitously discoverable (and ideally shareable) experiences. slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people Stephanie & Bryan Rieger
  90. Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc

  91. In the context of AR, equating the browser to web

    is not only inaccurate but limiting. medium.com/web-ar/new-challenges-ar-will-pose-for-the-web-48b754dfcdbc ‘saranyan’
  92. If we are going to continue to use “the web”

    as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock
  93. I don’t define “the web” as websites alone, but rather

    as any user experience that’s delivered across multiple channels and devices. recode.net/2016/6/3/11841458/heres-how-the-web-gets-conversation-optimized Dries Buytaert
  94. What if everything was powered by “The Web”, but you

    never saw a browser? medium.com/dev-channel/the-headless-web-de81ab21651f Paul Kinlan
  95. androidauthority.com/android-7-0-features-673002

  96. Watch software is, in a sense, a notification framework for

    your iPhone app. The Watch is merely the delivery device for it. Joshua Porter blog.rocketinsights.com/we-partnered-with-virgin-pulse-to-design-and-build-their-apple-watch-app
  97. twitter.com/lukew/status/751438493650264066

  98. A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with

    brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly
  99. Embedded content Powered by the web

  100. The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to

    enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger
  101. Messenger WebViews

  102. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

  103. From a web of destinations to a web of experiences

    and interactions.
  104. I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen