Surveying the Landscape Sept. 2016

9d9f17e37b751b9f83081ba3dd44bab4?s=47 Peter Gasston
September 01, 2016

Surveying the Landscape Sept. 2016

From native apps to closed platforms to messenger bots, there are many threats to the influence and long-term health of the web. But perhaps its not time to give up on the browser just yet: the web could be sufficiently flexible to find new roles and new opportunities in the technology landscape of today and the near future.
Presented at Front End Conf, Zürich

9d9f17e37b751b9f83081ba3dd44bab4?s=128

Peter Gasston

September 01, 2016
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Transcript

  1. Surveying the Landscape September 2016

  2. Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen

  3. None
  4. None
  5. The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that

    it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon
  6. Apps Android, iOS

  7. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished.

    Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman
  8. App-only Strategy e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

  9. Apple Universal links

  10. None
  11. Doorslams At best, very annoying

  12. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

  13. Advertising And worse, tracking

  14. secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

  15. Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security

    concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
  16. 21% of smartphone users block ads from mobile web. pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

  17. 2013 2014 2015 2016 wordstream.com/blog/ws/2015/10/02/ad-blockers $7.2B $11.7B $21.8B $41.4B

  18. Monetisation Free, ad-supported isn’t sustainable

  19. Having a legacy business configured around a website is now

    almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell
  20. The New Day Launched with no website.

  21. The idea won’t be to start a website. That will

    be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams
  22. None
  23. Running our own blog system is a classic case of

    the cobbler’s shoe syndrome. m.signalvnoise.com/signal-v-noise-moves-to-medium-c8083ce19686 David Heinemeier Hansson
  24. A lot of designers are still focused on building websites

    and I'm not sure that's a growth business anymore. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites …
  25. Mobile has fundamentally changed the dynamics of how information is

    distributed. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax
  26. Industry Changes Acquisitions, closures

  27. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html Everyone else New $ spent in US online advertising,

    Q1 2016
  28. Facebook 1.7bn monthly active users 3.45bn 1.7bn

  29. portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-

  30. Platforms Medium, Twitter, especially Facebook

  31. Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

  32. A company that can claim nearly every internet-using adult as

    a user is less a partner than a context. nytimes.com/2016/08/28/magazine/inside-facebooks-totally-insane-unintentionally-gigantic-hyperpartisan-political-media-machine.html John Herrman
  33. The new technologies of the 20th century eventually evolved into

    privately controlled industrial behemoths through which the flow and nature of content would be strictly controlled. The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires Tim Wu
  34. 0 1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet
  35. 108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not

    yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
  36. 1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web

    pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
  37. The Facebook-Loving Farmers of Myanmar The Atlantic theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

  38. 15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in

    Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
  39. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit

    card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 …
  40. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or

    even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod
  41. Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited.

    In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani
  42. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Internet users and Facebook users per 100 people 0

    12.5 25 37.5 50 Myanmar Indonesia Philippines Thailand Internet Facebook
  43. The amount of content that lives in Facebook will only

    increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod
  44. Instant Articles Stories rendered in Facebook UI

  45. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds

    to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  46. Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten

    times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
  47. Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’

    Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
  48. None
  49. Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host

    content within their own app and this is a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan
  50. AMP?

  51. Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com

  52. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than

    the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com
  53. Shopping & Services Facebook venturebeat.com/2016/08/03/facebook-adds-shopping-and-services-sections-to-pages

  54. In a way, Facebook [has] made the browser wars irrelevant

    by essentially itself becoming the browser. medium.freecodecamp.com/ghost-in-the-machine-snapchat-isnt-mobile-first-it-s-something-else-entirely-4f6c265152a2 Ben Basche
  55. The more it succeeds, the more Facebook warps a universe

    of internet content, industry norms, and consumer habits around itself.
 Facebook in effect becomes the mobile internet. wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/ Davey Alba
  56. Dominant Social Platforms ஙמ (WeChat), Line, Kakao

  57. kpcb.com/blog/2016-internet-trends-report

  58. Messaging Platforms Messenger, Kik, Slack

  59. Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green

  60. Daily and weekly use cases dominate the apps that get

    downloaded and used. But what about the software we use less often… … news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1
  61. … the brands we may interact with once only every

    few months, or spontaneously when we don’t have a fast connection? Sarah Guo news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1
  62. Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype

  63. Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new

    web pages. Anthony Green
  64. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

  65. Apps in Messaging iMessage, Allo, FB Messenger

  66. Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments

  67. twitter.com/lukew/status/751438493650264066

  68. Voice / No UI Echo, Google Home

  69. Wow… that was heavy.

  70. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

  71. Access method for mobile shoppers % France Italy Spain UK

    Germany 52.1 59.3 43.1 44.7 41.9 60.1 60.5 66.4 66.6 67.3 Browser App comscore.com/Insights/Data-Mine/Mobile-App-vs-Mobile-Browser
  72. The best way to reach new consumers is through the

    open web. Jason Karaian
  73. WeChat ஙמ

  74. While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first),

    in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso
  75. App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

  76. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

  77. None
  78. Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon

  79. Progressive Web Apps Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

  80. wired.com/2016/04/wait-web-isnt-really-dead-google-made-sure

  81. None
  82. twitter.com/beep/status/741335390964092928

  83. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver

    value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar
  84. Physical Web Nearby Notifications

  85. Light Apps ᫷ଫአ liveapp.cn/case

  86. Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices

  87. Choosing the web to enable experiences in the physical world

    doesn’t just expand the possibility space for IoT, it compels us to re-think the very shape of the web… slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people …
  88. … from a network of monolithic ‘destinations’ to one of

    small, non-linear, distributed, and serendipitously discoverable (and ideally shareable) experiences. slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people Stephanie & Bryan Rieger
  89. Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc

  90. In the context of AR, equating the browser to web

    is not only inaccurate but limiting. medium.com/web-ar/new-challenges-ar-will-pose-for-the-web-48b754dfcdbc ‘saranyan’
  91. If we are going to continue to use “the web”

    as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock
  92. I don’t define “the web” as websites alone, but rather

    as any user experience that’s delivered across multiple channels and devices. recode.net/2016/6/3/11841458/heres-how-the-web-gets-conversation-optimized Dries Buytaert
  93. What if everything was powered by “The Web”, but you

    never saw a browser? medium.com/dev-channel/the-headless-web-de81ab21651f Paul Kinlan
  94. Notifications Information unbundled from interface

  95. Rich local discovery Contextual actions expressed in site

  96. Embedded content Powered by the web

  97. A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with

    brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly
  98. The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to

    enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger
  99. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

  100. The web we build today will be the foundation for

    generations to come. It's crucial we get this right. buytaert.net/can-we-save-the-open-web Dries Buytaert
  101. I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen