Surveying the Landscape Sept. 2016

From native apps to closed platforms to messenger bots, there are many threats to the influence and long-term health of the web. But perhaps its not time to give up on the browser just yet: the web could be sufficiently flexible to find new roles and new opportunities in the technology landscape of today and the near future.
Presented at Front End Conf, Zürich

Transcript

1. Surveying the
   Landscape
   September 2016
   

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2. Peter Gasston
   Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio
   @stopsatgreen
   

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5. The realistic danger isn’t that the web
   disappears, but that it gets marginalized.
   medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a
   Chris Dixon
   

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6. Apps
   Android, iOS
   

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7. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is
   comparatively diminished. Slightly newer
   platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly
   touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it.
   theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
   John Herrman
   

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8. App-only Strategy
   e.g. Myntra, Flipkart
   

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9. Apple
   Universal links
   

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11. Doorslams
    At best, very annoying
    

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12. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857
    

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13. Advertising
    And worse, tracking
    

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14. secretmedia.com/secretmedianews
    

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15. Nearly one in two internet users say
    privacy and security concerns have stopped
    them from doing basic things online.
    washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/
    

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16. 21% of smartphone users
    block ads from mobile web.
    pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report
    

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17. 2013 2014 2015 2016
    wordstream.com/blog/ws/2015/10/02/ad-blockers
    $7.2B
    $11.7B
    $21.8B
    $41.4B
    

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18. Monetisation
    Free, ad-supported isn’t sustainable
    

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19. Having a legacy business configured
    around a website is now almost as much
    of a headache as the rumbling printing
    press, fuelled by paper and money.
    theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile
    Emily Bell
    

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20. The New Day
    Launched with no website.
    

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21. The idea won’t be to start a website.
    That will be dead.

    The individual website won’t matter.
    forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/
    Evan Williams
    

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23. Running our own blog system is
    a classic case of the cobbler’s
    shoe syndrome.
    m.signalvnoise.com/signal-v-noise-moves-to-medium-c8083ce19686
    David Heinemeier Hansson
    

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24. A lot of designers are still focused on
    building websites and I'm not sure
    that's a growth business anymore.
    mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites
    …
    

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25. Mobile has fundamentally changed the
    dynamics of how information is distributed.
    mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites
    Jon Lax
    

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26. Industry Changes
    Acquisitions, closures
    

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27. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html
    Everyone
    else
    New $ spent in US online advertising, Q1 2016
    

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28. Facebook
    1.7bn monthly active users
    3.45bn 1.7bn
    

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29. portals
    search
    platforms
    1995-2001
    2002-2013
    2014-
    

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30. Platforms
    Medium, Twitter, especially Facebook
    

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31. Upload Complete
    The Awl
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
    

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32. A company that can claim nearly
    every internet-using adult as a user
    is less a partner than a context.
    nytimes.com/2016/08/28/magazine/inside-facebooks-totally-insane-unintentionally-gigantic-hyperpartisan-political-media-machine.html
    John Herrman
    

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33. The new technologies of the 20th century
    eventually evolved into privately
    controlled industrial behemoths through
    which the flow and nature of content
    would be strictly controlled.
    The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires
    Tim Wu
    

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34. 0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
    Social Media Messaging Internet
    

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35. 108m people in India
    came online in 2015
    864m not yet online
    youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM
    

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36. 1 hour of minimum wage
    Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India
    (estimate)
    Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters
    

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37. The Facebook-Loving
    Farmers of Myanmar
    The Atlantic
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812
    

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38. 15% of avg. months income
    For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar
    (estimate)
    Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR
    

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39. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody
    has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from
    top-up shops… They feel each megabyte.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812
    …
    

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40. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other
    news apps or even Twitter: The content of many
    posts and news items live inside Facebook itself.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812
    Craig Mod
    

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41. Awareness of the internet in developing
    countries is very limited. In fact, for many
    users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often
    the only accessible application.
    qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
    Leo Mirani
    

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42. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
    Internet users and Facebook users per 100 people
    0
    12.5
    25
    37.5
    50
    Myanmar Indonesia Philippines Thailand
    Internet Facebook
    

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43. The amount of content that lives in
    Facebook will only increase. For those who
    are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/
    Craig Mod
    

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44. Instant Articles
    Stories rendered in Facebook UI
    

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45. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an
    average of eight seconds to load, by
    far the slowest single content type.
    media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
    

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46. Instant Articles makes the reading
    experience as much as ten times faster
    than standard mobile web articles.
    media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles
    

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47. Rise of the meta platforms
    and the new ‘web browser’
    Paul Kinlan
    paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
    

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49. Many of the platforms on mobile are
    choosing to host content within their
    own app and this is a direct and
    compelling threat to the web.
    paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
    Paul Kinlan
    

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50. AMP?
    

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51. Canvas Ads
    Facebook
    canvas.facebook.com
    

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52. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times
    faster than the standard mobile web.
    canvas.facebook.com
    

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53. Shopping & Services
    Facebook
    venturebeat.com/2016/08/03/facebook-adds-shopping-and-services-sections-to-pages
    

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54. In a way, Facebook [has] made the
    browser wars irrelevant by essentially
    itself becoming the browser.
    medium.freecodecamp.com/ghost-in-the-machine-snapchat-isnt-mobile-first-it-s-something-else-entirely-4f6c265152a2
    Ben Basche
    

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55. The more it succeeds, the more Facebook warps a
    universe of internet content, industry norms,
    and consumer habits around itself.

    Facebook in effect becomes the mobile internet.
    wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/
    Davey Alba
    

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56. Dominant Social Platforms
    ஙמ (WeChat), Line, Kakao
    

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57. kpcb.com/blog/2016-internet-trends-report
    

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58. Messaging Platforms
    Messenger, Kik, Slack
    

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59. Messaging apps are the new browsers.
    Anthony Green
    

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60. Daily and weekly use cases dominate the
    apps that get downloaded and used. But what
    about the software we use less often…
    …
    news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1
    

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61. … the brands we may interact with once only
    every few months, or spontaneously when we
    don’t have a fast connection?
    Sarah Guo
    news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1
    

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62. Bots
    Messenger, Telegram, Skype
    

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63. Messaging apps are the new browsers,
    bots are the new web pages.
    Anthony Green
    

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64. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264
    

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65. Apps in Messaging
    iMessage, Allo, FB Messenger
    

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66. Android Instant Apps
    On-demand app fragments
    

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67. twitter.com/lukew/status/751438493650264066
    

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68. Voice / No UI
    Echo, Google Home
    

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69. Wow… that was heavy.
    

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70. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577
    

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71. Access method for mobile shoppers %
    France Italy Spain UK Germany
    52.1
    59.3
    43.1
    44.7
    41.9
    60.1
    60.5
    66.4
    66.6
    67.3
    Browser App
    comscore.com/Insights/Data-Mine/Mobile-App-vs-Mobile-Browser
    

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72. The best way to reach new consumers
    is through the open web.
    Jason Karaian
    

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73. WeChat
    ஙמ
    

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74. While in the West companies are still
    native-first (usually iOS-first), in China
    the most important presence one may
    have is a mobile-optimised website.
    medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8
    Alessio Basso
    

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75. App-only Strategy
    Flipkart, Myrna
    

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76. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360
    

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78. Flipkart Lite
    70% increase in conversions
    from home screen icon
    

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79. Progressive Web Apps
    Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST
    developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps
    

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80. wired.com/2016/04/wait-web-isnt-really-dead-google-made-sure
    

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82. twitter.com/beep/status/741335390964092928
    

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83. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It
    has to deliver value by enhancing the way we
    experience the world around us.
    wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar
    Yves Behar
    

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84. Physical Web
    Nearby Notifications
    

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85. Light Apps
    ᫷ଫአ
    liveapp.cn/case
    

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86. Web Bluetooth
    Pair with BLE devices
    

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87. Choosing the web to enable experiences in the
    physical world doesn’t just expand the possibility
    space for IoT, it compels us to re-think the very
    shape of the web…
    slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people
    …
    

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88. … from a network of monolithic ‘destinations’
    to one of small, non-linear, distributed, and
    serendipitously discoverable (and ideally
    shareable) experiences.
    slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people
    Stephanie & Bryan Rieger
    

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89. Web VR
    Oculus, Cardboard, etc
    

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90. In the context of AR, equating the browser
    to web is not only inaccurate but limiting.
    medium.com/web-ar/new-challenges-ar-will-pose-for-the-web-48b754dfcdbc
    ‘saranyan’
    

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91. If we are going to continue to use “the web” as
    a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year
    vision that transcends web browsers.
    wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459
    Allen Wirfs-Brock
    

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92. I don’t define “the web” as websites alone, but
    rather as any user experience that’s delivered
    across multiple channels and devices.
    recode.net/2016/6/3/11841458/heres-how-the-web-gets-conversation-optimized
    Dries Buytaert
    

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93. What if everything was powered by “The Web”,
    but you never saw a browser?
    medium.com/dev-channel/the-headless-web-de81ab21651f
    Paul Kinlan
    

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94. Notifications
    Information unbundled from interface
    

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95. Rich local discovery
    Contextual actions expressed in site
    

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96. Embedded content
    Powered by the web
    

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97. A containerized, embeddable article that
    travels to any site with brand, revenue,
    analytics, and links attached.
    medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799
    Kevin Kelly
    

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98. The universally accessible, multi-device and
    multi-context web is there to enhance native
    infrastructure — not the other way around.
    medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799
    Stephanie Rieger
    

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99. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089
    

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100. The web we build today will be the
     foundation for generations to come.
     It's crucial we get this right.
     buytaert.net/can-we-save-the-open-web
     Dries Buytaert
     

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101. I Am Peter Gasston
     @stopsatgreen
     

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