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Surveying the Landscape — November 2016

Surveying the Landscape — November 2016

Peter Gasston

November 24, 2016
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  1. Surveying the
    Landscape
    November 2016

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  2. Peter Gasston
    Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio
    @stopsatgreen

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  4. The realistic danger isn’t that the web
    disappears, but that it gets marginalized.
    medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a
    Chris Dixon

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  5. Apps
    Android, iOS

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  6. In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is
    comparatively diminished. Slightly newer
    platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly
    touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it.
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year
    John Herrman

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  7. App-only Strategy
    e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

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  9. Apple
    Universal links

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  10. Doorslams
    At best, very annoying

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  11. twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

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  12. Advertising
    And worse, tracking

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  13. secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

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  14. Nearly one in two internet users say
    privacy and security concerns have stopped
    them from doing basic things online.
    washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/

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  15. 21% of smartphone users
    block ads from mobile web.
    pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

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  16. Global economic cost of using ad blockers
    2013 2014 2015 2016
    wordstream.com/blog/ws/2015/10/02/ad-blockers
    $7.2bn
    $11.7bn
    $21.8bn
    $41.4bn

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  17. I think the lovers of the web really need to
    be on the lookout for better ways to fund
    what we want to see out of this technology.
    theverge.com/2016/11/15/13465796/tim-wu-interview-attention-merchants-advertising-donald-trump
    Tim Wu

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  18. Monetisation
    Free, ad-supported isn’t sustainable

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  19. Having a legacy business configured
    around a website is now almost as much
    of a headache as the rumbling printing
    press, fuelled by paper and money.
    theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile
    Emily Bell

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  20. The New Day
    Launched with no website.

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  21. The idea won’t be to start a website.
    That will be dead.

    The individual website won’t matter.
    forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/
    Evan Williams

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  23. Running our own blog system is a classic
    case of the cobbler’s shoe syndrome.
    m.signalvnoise.com/signal-v-noise-moves-to-medium-c8083ce19686
    David Heinemeier Hansson

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  24. A lot of designers are still focused on
    building websites and I'm not sure
    that's a growth business anymore.
    mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites
    Jon Lax

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  25. Mobile has fundamentally changed the
    dynamics of how information is distributed.
    mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites
    Jon Lax

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  26. Industry Changes
    Acquisitions, closures

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  27. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html
    Everyone
    else
    New $ spent in US online advertising, Q1 2016

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  28. Facebook
    1.7bn monthly active users
    3.45bn 1.7bn

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  29. portals
    search
    platforms
    1995-2001
    2002-2013
    2014-

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  30. Platforms
    Medium, Twitter, iOS, esp. Facebook

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  31. Upload Complete
    The Awl
    theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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  32. A company that can claim nearly
    every internet-using adult as a user
    is less a partner than a context.
    nytimes.com/2016/08/28/magazine/inside-facebooks-totally-insane-unintentionally-gigantic-hyperpartisan-political-media-machine.html
    John Herrman

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  33. The new technologies of the 20th century
    eventually evolved into privately controlled
    industrial behemoths through which the flow and
    nature of content would be strictly controlled.
    The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires
    Tim Wu

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  34. Nigel Farage/Twitter

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  35. Technology has made objective truth a
    casualty to the pursuit of happiness — or
    engagement, to use the — technical term and
    now life and liberty hang in the balance.
    stratechery.com/2016/why-twitter-must-be-saved/
    Ben Thompson

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  36. 0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
    Social Media Messaging Internet

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  37. 108m people in India
    came online in 2015
    864m not yet online
    youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM

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  38. 1 hour of minimum wage
    Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India
    (estimate)
    Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters

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  39. 15% of avg. months income
    For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar
    (estimate)
    Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR

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  40. The Facebook-Loving
    Farmers of Myanmar
    The Atlantic
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

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  41. The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody
    has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from
    top-up shops… They feel each megabyte.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812
    Craig Mod

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  42. Facebook has a compelling advantage over other
    news apps or even Twitter: The content of many
    posts and news items live inside Facebook itself.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812
    Craig Mod

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  43. Awareness of the internet in developing
    countries is very limited. In fact, for many
    users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often
    the only accessible application.
    qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
    Leo Mirani

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  44. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/
    Self-identified internet users and Facebook users per 100 people
    0
    12.5
    25
    37.5
    50
    Indonesia Philippines Thailand
    Internet Facebook

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  45. The amount of content that lives in
    Facebook will only increase. For those who
    are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue.
    theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/
    Craig Mod

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  46. Rise of the meta platforms
    and the new ‘web browser’
    Paul Kinlan
    paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms

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  48. Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing
    to host content within their own app and this is
    a direct and compelling threat to the web.
    paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms
    Paul Kinlan

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  49. AMP?

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  50. AMP is coming to eat our mobile page views.
    But AMP loads super, super quickly and is
    simply a better experience right now.
    theverge.com/2016/10/6/13188306/refreshing-the-verge-facebook-video-google-amp-future-of-the-web
    Nilay Patel

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  51. Instant Articles
    Stories rendered in Facebook UI

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  52. Stories [shared on Facebook] take an
    average of eight seconds to load, by
    far the slowest single content type.
    media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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  53. Instant Articles makes the reading
    experience as much as ten times faster
    than standard mobile web articles.
    media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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  54. Canvas Ads
    Facebook
    canvas.facebook.com

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  55. Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times
    faster than the standard mobile web.
    canvas.facebook.com

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  56. The more it succeeds, the more Facebook warps a
    universe of internet content, industry norms,
    and consumer habits around itself.
    wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/
    Davey Alba

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  57. Facebook in effect becomes the mobile internet.
    wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/
    Davey Alba

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  58. Shopping & Services
    Facebook
    venturebeat.com/2016/08/03/facebook-adds-shopping-and-services-sections-to-pages

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  59. In a way, Facebook [has] made the
    browser wars irrelevant by essentially
    itself becoming the browser.
    medium.freecodecamp.com/ghost-in-the-machine-snapchat-isnt-mobile-first-it-s-something-else-entirely-4f6c265152a2
    Ben Basche

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  60. Dominant Social Platforms
    ஙמ (WeChat), Line, Kakao

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  61. Share of daily mobile time spent

    (approx. 200mins), China, April 2016.
    All other
    Baidu
    Alibaba
    Tencent other
    QQ
    WeChat
    kpcb.com/blog/2016-internet-trends-report

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  62. Messaging Platforms
    Messenger, Kik, Slack

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  63. Messaging apps are the new browsers.
    Anthony Green

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  64. Daily and weekly use cases dominate the
    apps that get downloaded and used. But what
    about the software we use less often…
    Sarah Guo
    news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1

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  65. … the brands we may interact with once only
    every few months, or spontaneously when we
    don’t have a fast connection?
    Sarah Guo
    news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1

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  66. Bots
    Messenger, Telegram, Skype

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  67. Messaging apps are the new browsers,
    bots are the new web pages.
    Anthony Green

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  68. twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

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  69. Apps in Messaging
    iMessage, Allo, FB Messenger

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  70. Android Instant Apps
    On-demand app fragments

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  71. Voice / No UI
    Echo, Google Home

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  72. Wow… that was heavy.

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  73. twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

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  74. 5%
    95%
    twitter.com/lukew/status/783352086553473024
    5%
    15%
    37%
    43%
    Web
    Share of time spent on mobile
    Native
    Most-used
    Next Four
    Others

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  75. The best way to reach new consumers
    is through the open web.
    Jason Karaian

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  76. Access method for mobile shoppers %
    France Italy Spain UK Germany
    52.1
    59.3
    43.1
    44.7
    41.9
    60.1
    60.5
    66.4
    66.6
    67.3
    Browser App
    comscore.com/Insights/Data-Mine/Mobile-App-vs-Mobile-Browser

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  77. WeChat
    ஙמ

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  78. While in the West companies are still
    native-first (usually iOS-first), in China
    the most important presence one may
    have is a mobile-optimised website.
    medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8
    Alessio Basso

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  79. App-only Strategy
    Flipkart, Myrna

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  80. twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

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  82. Flipkart Lite
    70% increase in conversions
    from home screen icon

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  83. Progressive Web Apps
    Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST
    developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

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  84. Many brands are finding that their mobile
    apps are not paying off. They simply haven’t
    delivered the level of adoption and customer
    engagement that companies expected.
    gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/gartner-predicts-a-virtual-world-of-exponential-change/
    Gartner

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  85. wired.com/2016/04/wait-web-isnt-really-dead-google-made-sure

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  86. View Slide

  87. twitter.com/beep/status/741335390964092928

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  88. Technology does not have intrinsic value. It
    has to deliver value by enhancing the way we
    experience the world around us.
    wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar
    Yves Behar

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  89. Physical Web
    Nearby Notifications

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  90. Physical Web
    Nearby Notifications

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  91. Rich local discovery
    Contextual actions expressed in site

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  92. View Slide

  93. Web Bluetooth
    Pair with BLE devices

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  94. Choosing the web to enable experiences in
    the physical world doesn’t just expand the
    possibility space for IoT, it compels us to
    re-think the very shape of the web…
    slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people

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  95. … from a network of monolithic
    ‘destinations’ to one of small, non-linear,
    distributed, and serendipitously discoverable
    (and ideally shareable) experiences.
    slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people
    Stephanie & Bryan Rieger

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  96. Web VR
    Oculus, Cardboard, etc

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  97. In the context of AR, equating the browser
    to web is not only inaccurate but limiting.
    medium.com/web-ar/new-challenges-ar-will-pose-for-the-web-48b754dfcdbc
    ‘saranyan’

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  98. If we are going to continue to use “the web” as
    a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year
    vision that transcends web browsers.
    wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459
    Allen Wirfs-Brock

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  99. I don’t define “the web” as websites alone, but
    rather as any user experience that’s delivered
    across multiple channels and devices.
    recode.net/2016/6/3/11841458/heres-how-the-web-gets-conversation-optimized
    Dries Buytaert

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  100. What if everything was powered by “The Web”,
    but you never saw a browser?
    medium.com/dev-channel/the-headless-web-de81ab21651f
    Paul Kinlan

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  101. androidauthority.com/android-7-0-features-673002

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  102. Watch software is, in a sense, a
    notification framework for your
    iPhone app. The Watch is merely
    the delivery device for it.
    Joshua Porter
    blog.rocketinsights.com/we-partnered-with-virgin-pulse-to-design-and-build-their-apple-watch-app

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  103. twitter.com/lukew/status/751438493650264066

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  104. A containerized, embeddable article that
    travels to any site with brand, revenue,
    analytics, and links attached.
    medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799
    Kevin Kelly

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  105. Embedded content
    Powered by the web

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  106. The universally accessible, multi-device and
    multi-context web is there to enhance native
    infrastructure — not the other way around.
    medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799
    Stephanie Rieger

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  107. Messenger Web Views
    Messenger enriched by the web

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  108. twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

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  109. From a web of destinations to a web
    of experiences and interactions.

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  110. I Am Peter Gasston
    @stopsatgreen

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  111. Longread version:
    https://medium.com/rehabstudio/surveying-the-landscape-4d7127a7d53f

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