Montana's Aging Population

Dr. Douglas Young, MSU Wonderlust Council president and Montana State University professor emeritus (economics), presented an overview of Montana demographics at the Lifelong Learning Symposium on Oct. 4, 2018.

The symposium was hosted by MSU Wonderlust, a lifelong learning program of Montana State University's Academic Technology and Outreach (http://www.montana.edu/wonderlust)

Transcript

1. Montana’s Aging Population Douglas J Young Professor Emeritus (Economics) Montana State University 1 Lifelong Learning: New Opportunities for Aging Communities October 4, 2018
2. Prior Work with George Haynes and Myles Watts • Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Montana • Montana Agricultural Experiment Station • Montana Area Agencies on Aging Association • Montana Association of Counties • Montana Bankers Association • Montana Chamber Foundation • Montana State University • Montana State University Extension • NorthWestern Energy • PPL Montana • University of Montana • Montana Council on Economic Education (MCEE) • ONE MONTANA: Bridging the Rural-Urban Divide 2
3. Outline 1. Montana is Rapidly Aging 2. Aging varies Widely Across the State 3. Migration Plays a Big Role 4. Opportunities and Challenges
4. 1. Montana’s Population - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Age 65+ MT CEIC
5. Montana’s Population (%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Age 65+ Age 18-24
6. 1. Montana is Rapidly Aging • The Population Age 65+ is • Growing in Both Absolute terms and as a Percentage of the Total Population. • The Population Age18-24 • Has been declining and is not expected to grow as a Percentage of the Total Population • The “Market” for Life Long Learning is Growing while that for Traditional Age Learning is Stagnant
7. 2. County Variation - 2010
8. 2. County Variation - 2030
9. 3. Migration Why People Move: Economic: Job Opportunities Retirement: (Grand-) Kids Other Reasons: Life-Style, Schools 9
10. Measuring Migration Net Migration = # of People Who Move Into Montana minus # of People Who Move Out of Montana
11. -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Persons Age in 2010 Net Migration 2000 to 2010 11 Sources: U.S. Census and CDC
13. -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Persons Age in 2010 Net Migration Western/Southern Montana 2000 to 2010 13 Sources: U.S. Census and CDC
14. -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Persons Age in 2010 Net Migration Yellowstone County 2000 to 2010 14 Sources: U.S. Census and CDC
15. -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Persons Age in 2010 Net Migration Eastern/Northern Montana 2000 to 2010 15 Sources: U.S. Census and CDC
16. The “Big Seven” Counties in 2030
17. 4. Opportunities and Challenges • The Target Population for Life Long Learning will grow by 40% - more than 100,000 persons – between 2010 and 2030. • They are Spread across the 4th Largest State • Sixty Percent of the Target Population will Reside in Seven Counties: Cascade, Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Ravalli, Yellowstone
18. Questions?