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PTSM- #1 - Monitoring, Data Center et Machine Learning

TimeSeriesFr
September 25, 2019

PTSM- #1 - Monitoring, Data Center et Machine Learning

Support de présentation de Clément Bataille et Christophe Rannou sur l'usage du machine learning appliqué aux séries temporelles chez OVHCloud dans le cadre du monitoring de leur datacenters.

TimeSeriesFr

September 25, 2019
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  1. Monitoring, Data Center et Machine
    Learning
    https://labs.ovh.com/machine-learning-platform
    Clement Bataille
    Christophe Rannou

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  2. WE OPERATE IN A FAST
    GROWING MARKET
    where
    availability
    is essential
    PUBLIC CLOUD & VPS
    PRIVATE CLOUD
    DEDICATED SERVER
    STORAGE
    NETWORK & SECURITY
    MULTI-LOCAL
    EVERYWHERE
    RAPID
    DELIVERY
    WORD-CLASS
    STANDARDS

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  3. OUR
    STORY

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  4. WE INNOVATE WITH
    EVERYONE
    WE ARE INDEPENDANT
    WE ARE THE ALTERNATIVE WHICH
    FREES UP THE CLOUD THROUGH
    CREATIVITY AND AN ENTREPRENEURIAL
    SPIRIT
    EMPLOYEES
    CUSTOMERS
    ECOSYSTEM
    OVH
    PARTNERS
    INNOVATION FOR FREEDOM

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  5. WE ARE
    A GLOBAL CLOUD PROVIDER
    WE ARE
    AN INDUSTRIAL PLAYER
    Hillsboro
    x1
    17
    Tbps 34 Point of Presence
    IN 3 CONTINENTS
    BHS
    x6
    Vinthill
    x1
    +1 400 000
    CUSTOMERS
    IN
    132
    COUNTRIES
    Singapore
    x1
    2 200
    EMPLOYEES
    IN
    18
    COUNTRIES
    Sydney
    x1
    Europe
    x18
    BUILDER OF ITS
    OWN SERVERS
    SINCE 2002
    +
    1 million
    SERVERS built since
    1999
    29
    DATA CENTERS in
    12 locations
    EXISTING SINCE
    1999

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  6. SIMPLE AND QUICK TO SET UP
    MULTI-LOCAL, CLOSE TO EACH PERSON
    THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
    WHOSE COST IS
    ACCESSIBLE AND PREDICTABLE
    REVERSIBLE, OPEN AND INTEROPERABLE
    TRANSPARENT AND RESPONSIBLE
    WE BUILD A
    DIFFERENT
    CLOUD
    a truly
    Cloud
    SMART
    TO GROW AND SUCCEED TOGETHER

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  7. ML for Time Series with Prescience
    7

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  8. Toy Use Case
    8
    We are going to have a look at the international airline passengers prediction
    problem.
    The initial data is in the csv format :
    steps passengers
    1949-01 112
    1949-02 118
    1949-03 132
    1949-04 129

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  9. Problem Definition
    Detection
    Time Series
    • Specific Target
    • Ground Truth quality
    • Specific Target
    • Ground Truth quality
    • Forecast
    • Anomaly detection
    • Prediction horizon
    • Forecast
    • Anomaly detection
    • Prediction horizon
    9

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  10. Problem definition
    10
    What kind of problem do you want to solve ?
    • Simple Classification
    • Simple Regression
    • Time series classification
    • Time series regression/forecast

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  11. Problem definition
    11
    • What is your label ?
    • What is your ordering column ?
    Month Passengers
    1949-01 112
    1949-02 118
    1949-03 132
    1949-04 129
    Ordering
    column
    Label

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  12. Problem definition
    12
    • How many steps forward do you
    want to predict ? One year => 12
    steps
    • Do you want to apply a discount ?
    No => 1
    • Scoring metric ? Default => MSE
    1 Year

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  13. Experiment definition
    13
    How many fold do you want to create ? 2

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  14. Experiment definition
    14
    How much budget
    to allow on
    optimization ? 10

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  15. Demo
    15

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  16. Scores are deceitful
    • Data Leakage
    – Unusable
    – Dangerous
    – Difficult to detect
    – Difficult to correct
    • Wrong problem definition
    16

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  17. Stock Value Prediction: How to get rich in 5 minutes
    Graphs: Vegard Flovik, How (not) to use Machine Learning for time series forecasting: Avoiding the pitfalls
    17

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  18. Stock Value Prediction: Why I am not rich
    18

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  19. Stock Value Prediction: What I should have done
    19

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  20. Use cases

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  21. Electricity Comsuption forecast
    Sonde
    DC
    Site
    EDF
    WARP10 ML with
    Prescience
    Retrain model
    every week
    Forecast
    everyday

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  22. CEPH
    Key indicator:
    Forecast every 6h

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  23. VOIP Monitoring
    Chiffres Clés :
    125 destinations
    3 lignes par pays
    1 point à l’heure

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  24. Temperature Anomaly
    Room
    Warp10
    Arima Model
    Retrain every
    week
    Forecast by point
    Compare with
    Isolation Forest
    Alerting with TAT

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  25. Temperature Anomaly
    Rack
    Warp10
    Mobil
    Mean
    Isolation
    Forest
    Alerting
    with TAT

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  26. Network forecast
    Key indicator :
    • 20K equipment
    • 100 metric by
    equipment
    • Point every minute

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  27. Network forecast
    • Trend Stationary • Differency Stationary
    Method stationary transformation
    Graphs: Investopedia, stationary and non-stationary processes : https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/stationary.asp

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  28. Network forecast
    Warp10
    Heuristique
    de selection
    Regression Arima by TS
    Export to
    WARP10 +
    Mailing

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  29. T H A N K YO U
    @ChrisRannou
    Clement Bataille
    https://gitter.im/ovh/ai

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