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Early Stage Investing: 1999 All Over Again?
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Tytus Michalski
November 28, 2012
Business
1
120
Early Stage Investing: 1999 All Over Again?
Tytus Michalski
November 28, 2012
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Transcript
Early Stage Investing: 1999 All Over Again?
[email protected]
DISCLAIMER Source of all data in this presentation: wild guesses
and random numbers found on the Internet.
Why 1999?
Because 2001
Basics: Cost of Build 1999 2012 Software >US$5mln <US$50k Hardware
>US$30mln <US$1mln
Basics: Time to Market 1999 2012 Software 24 months 6
months Hardware 48 months 18 months
Basics: Market Size 1999 2012 Mobile subs 500mln 6bn Internet
users 250mln 2.5bn Social users what? 1.2bn
Basics: Massive Change 1999 2012 Cost of build 50x cheaper
Time to market 3x faster Market size 10x bigger
Basics: Hard to Comprehend 1999 2012 Total change ~1,500x improvement
Capital: VC Investment 1999 2012 US ~US$38bn ~US$36bn Outside US
~US$12bn ~US$17bn Global Total ~US$50bn ~US$53bn
Capital: Angel Investment 1999 2012 US ~US$36bn ~US$25bn Outside US
~US$8bn ~US$15bn Global Total ~US$44bn ~US$40bn
Capital: Some Comparisons 1999 2012 Global R&D ~US$550bn ~US$1,400bn Global
capex ~US$7,000bn ~US$16,000bn Global GDP ~US$32,000bn ~US$69,000bn
Capital: Less Than Hyped 1999 2012 VC 10-12 year hangover
Angel Guesstimate an entire generation was burned
Wildcards: Emerging Areas Some Examples as of 2011 Genomics 30k
human genomes sequenced 3D printing 30k 3D printers installed base Space 500 visitors to space
Wildcards: Coming Soon Within 0-12 Months Genomics US$1,000 genome sequencing
3D printing US$200 3D printer Space US$500 rent a satellite / week
Wildcards: New Possibilities Fearless Predictions for 2020 Genomics 1bn human
genomes sequenced 3D printing 100mln 3D printers installed base Space 10mln people rented a satellite
Conclusion: 1999 vs. 2012 Not Even Close Basics 1,500x improvement
Capital Less than hyped Wildcards New possibilities
“Compared with what we ought to be, we are only
half-awake.” - William James
[email protected]