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Early Stage Investing: 1999 All Over Again?

Avatar for Tytus Michalski Tytus Michalski
November 28, 2012

Early Stage Investing: 1999 All Over Again?

Avatar for Tytus Michalski

Tytus Michalski

November 28, 2012
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  1. DISCLAIMER Source of all data in this presentation: wild guesses

    and random numbers found on the Internet.
  2. Basics: Time to Market 1999 2012 Software 24 months 6

    months Hardware 48 months 18 months
  3. Basics: Market Size 1999 2012 Mobile subs 500mln 6bn Internet

    users 250mln 2.5bn Social users what? 1.2bn
  4. Basics: Massive Change 1999 2012 Cost of build 50x cheaper

    Time to market 3x faster Market size 10x bigger
  5. Capital: VC Investment 1999 2012 US ~US$38bn ~US$36bn Outside US

    ~US$12bn ~US$17bn Global Total ~US$50bn ~US$53bn
  6. Capital: Angel Investment 1999 2012 US ~US$36bn ~US$25bn Outside US

    ~US$8bn ~US$15bn Global Total ~US$44bn ~US$40bn
  7. Capital: Some Comparisons 1999 2012 Global R&D ~US$550bn ~US$1,400bn Global

    capex ~US$7,000bn ~US$16,000bn Global GDP ~US$32,000bn ~US$69,000bn
  8. Capital: Less Than Hyped 1999 2012 VC 10-12 year hangover

    Angel Guesstimate an entire generation was burned
  9. Wildcards: Emerging Areas Some Examples as of 2011 Genomics 30k

    human genomes sequenced 3D printing 30k 3D printers installed base Space 500 visitors to space
  10. Wildcards: Coming Soon Within 0-12 Months Genomics US$1,000 genome sequencing

    3D printing US$200 3D printer Space US$500 rent a satellite / week
  11. Wildcards: New Possibilities Fearless Predictions for 2020 Genomics 1bn human

    genomes sequenced 3D printing 100mln 3D printers installed base Space 10mln people rented a satellite
  12. Conclusion: 1999 vs. 2012 Not Even Close Basics 1,500x improvement

    Capital Less than hyped Wildcards New possibilities