The Climate Change Challenge: Why We Need to Adapt Waterborne Transport Infrastructure

In December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris agreement, a legally binding climate deal designed to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting warming to well below 2°C. However, even if this agreement succeeds in limiting warming to 2°C the world is already locked-in to a level of ongoing climatic change.

Transcript

1. The Climate Change Challenge:
 why waterborne transport infrastructure needs to adapt Jan Brooke, Environmental Consultant, and Focal Point for the PIANC-led Think Climate coalition
2. The Paris Agreement • In December 2015, at COP21, 195 countries agreed to adopt the so-called Paris agreement • Legally-binding global climate deal initiates international plan of action to help avoid dangerous climate change by limiting warming to well below 2°C • Sets out series of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Whilst pledges made in Paris go some way towards what is needed, limiting warming to 2°C will require significant additional measures that go far beyond what is already agreed • Also clear that world is already locked in to a degree of change in key climate parameters • Even if the Paris agreement limits warming to less than two degrees, significant investment in adaptation will still be needed!
3. Inland navigation infrastructure may need to adapt to: Increases in the frequency or severity of high flows/flooding or low flows/drought due to changes in precipitation characteristics Variations in estuarial or river current strengths, affecting the frequency and duration of periods of navigation disruption and requiring improved infrastructure resilience Changes in sediment transport, erosion and accretion affecting navigable depth or built infrastructure integrity Changes in seasonal precipitation with potential consequences for water supply or storage inter alia affecting lock operations Increasing air and water temperature leading to changes in characteristic species with consequences for river bank integrity; algae or water weed growth; and the spread of non-indigenous or invasive species Changes in icing and snowmelt characteristics affecting flow and infrastructure integrity What to expect?
5. Implications? • Climate change will affect both existing and new inland navigation infrastructure • Change will not be equally distributed; most profound effects may be experienced by those least well-resourced to adapt • Adaptation needs will vary between locations • Some navigation systems may require little adaptation in the short to medium term (10-20 years) because existing infrastructure can cope with the projected changes • Other systems are less well prepared
6. What to think about? • What can reasonably be expected, and when? • Changes in mean/typical conditions vs. increased frequency/intensity of extremes • Is there existing adaptive capacity within the system; adequate redundancy? • Benefits of a temporary or interim solution vs. a longer-term option • Could changes in operations, maintenance or management help improve the longevity of physical infrastructure? • Does existing infrastructure need retrofitting? • Is new infrastructure climate-proof?
7. Additional challenges for canals • Often older infrastructure, not designed for climate change-induced extremes • Heritage aspects, protected assets or infrastructure; planning and consenting challenges • Water resources, water allocation issues • Availability of finance; funding challenges
8. Introducing 
 PIANC WG 178 • World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure (PIANC) Technical Working Group 178 on climate change adaptation for ports and inland waterways • 30 members from 20 countries • Objectives include: • developing a guidance framework for climate change adaptation planning and delivery • providing guidance on addressing challenges and identifying priorities • generating a toolbox of adaptation options including non-structural (e.g. behavioural/institutional) as well as structural measures
9. Based on UKCIP risk 
 assessment model
10. WG 178 guidance
 key steps • Identify/engage stakeholders; raise awareness; develop ownership • Prepare inventory of infrastructure assets and operations, highlighting critical assets and operations • Understand key climatic drivers, observed changes, monitoring • Examine future climate scenarios/projections, recognise uncertainties • Consider exposure, sensitivity, consequence, likelihood, risk, timings • Explore options: WG178 toolbox of structural / physical; behavioural / operational; and institutional measures • Understand key concepts: maladaptation; resilience; adaptive management; quick wins; win-wins; low hanging fruit; no/low regrets • Evaluate, select, implement and monitor preferred option
11. Technical/scientific considerations • Simplify the science: ‘what is climate change likely to mean for me’? • Concern about conventional methods, using past to project future
13. Technical/scientific considerations • Simplify the science: ‘what is climate change likely to mean for me’? • Concern about conventional methods, using past to project future • Act on what you know, but also recognise where there are gaps • Monitoring is important: observations inform trend analysis • Consider in-combination effects • Use climate change scenarios, including extreme scenarios • To overcome scepticism use sound, verified evidence; local examples • Know your assets and operations: many operators don’t understand existing risks and vulnerabilities • Engage stakeholders as early as possible
14. Selecting solutions • Use business case arguments based on risks to current operations • Structural vs. non-structural? Operational change may give quick wins • Consider adaptive management techniques informed by monitoring • Resilience is vital; accommodate, relocate, protect • Resilience is more than engineering design: social resilience, economic resilience; flexibility; robustness … • Plan and design to include capability for upgrading or future modification; plan and design to ‘fail gracefully’ … • Need a culture shift! • Owners and operators are best placed to understand assets but external experts can bring fresh ideas: find the right balance
15. Navigating a 
 Changing Climate • Publication of WG 178 technical guidance, planned for early 2017, is an action in the Action Plan of PIANC’s Think Climate coalition. • Several other PIANC Working Groups are noted or proposed in the Plan (carbon management in ports; new WG on resilience; Working with Nature) • Navigating a Changing Climate conference. Brussels, 27-28 March 2017 www.pianc.org/thinkclimate.php
16. Final reflections • Navigation infrastructure: the risks are high, the stakes are high • Don’t wait for perfect data: act on what you know • Uncertainty will remain a key challenge for adaptation • Locking into a single climate scenario increases maladaptation risk • Often insufficient understanding of criticality; also of the adaptive capacity of existing infrastructure • Effective adaptation depends on the effective engagement of all stakeholders: get early buy-in • Need to demonstrate the business case for adaptation • Climate change is not a one-off. Solutions are not one-size-fits-all • Climate change adaptation needs to become part of the day job •
17. Thanks for listening! jan@janbrooke.co.uk