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A Tale of Two Futures

A Tale of Two Futures

Why our present isn’t what it was supposed to be, what our future might look like, and how to deal with exponential change. (Keynote at Day One, November 2015)

C73e2a17bd00aa722f84d5e019556dfc?s=128

Wolfgang Wopperer-Beholz

November 13, 2015
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  1. WOLFGANG WOPPERER BEHOLZ CO-FOUNDER MINDMATTERS CO-FOUNDER BETAHAUS HAMBURG CO-CREATOR PRODUCTFIELD

    ( )
  2. A TALE OF TWO FUTURES Day One – 13.11.2015

  3. None
  4. http://i0.wp.com/newsfirst.lk/english/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/back-to-the-future-time-circuit-board.jpg

  5. (FUTURE DAY)

  6. http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1396036/delorean.jpg

  7. THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE FUTURE:

  8. http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/1502029/size/tmg-article_main_wide_2x

  9. https://rookin.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/hovercar.jpg

  10. https://marcusomahony.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/mr_fusion_by_emmokapp.jpg

  11. BUT:

  12. http://www.innovationfiles.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/futureatlas.com_.jpg

  13. 1981 https://startupblog.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/xerox-star.jpg http://i.computer-bild.de/imgs/5/8/2/3/0/0/0/Apple-iMac-1024x576-97ea294353f8a908.jpg 2015

  14. http://www.eco-mobil.at/uploads/pics/VW_Golf_Golf_VII_large.jpg 1974 2015

  15. 1957 2015 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/All_Nippon_Airways_Boeing_787-8_Dreamliner_JA801A_OKJ.jpg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/Boeing_707-138B_Qantas_Jett_Clipper_Ella_N707JT.jpg

  16. 1855 1895 1935 1975 2015 N uclear Pow er Transistor

    TC P/IP W ord W ide W eb Integrated C ircuit Laser G UI Dry C ell Battery Radio Diesel Engine Vacuum Tube Television Telephone Light Bulb A ircraft Program m able C om puter Satellites G as Engine A utom obile Steel Dynam ite Sm artphone Personal C om puter Solar C ell TODAY’S TECHNOLOGIES Digital C am era M obile Phone
  17. WHERE WE SHOULD BE http://kk.org/mt-files/thetechnium-mt/Martino72-43.jpg

  18. WHERE WE ARE

  19. None
  20. MISSED DREAMS

  21. http://www.technologyreview.com/sites/default/files/legacy/tfp_brookings3.png

  22. http://www.technologyreview.com/sites/default/files/legacy/tfp_brookings3.png MISSED WEALTH

  23. „THE GREAT STAGNATION“

  24. BUT WAIT…

  25. http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/51dc2bbcecad04770700001f/the-only-thing-back-to-the-future-missed-with-its-representation-of-video-chat-is-the-annoying-sounds-skype-makes-when-you-start-and-end-a-call.jpg

  26. http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/c/c7/Back_to_the_Future_II.png/revision/latest?cb=20131107120316

  27. http://geekandsundry.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/back-to-the-future-2-4.jpg

  28. http://static.businessinsider.com/image/54a8d7e8ecad04ca4368d5bc/image.jpg

  29. http://www.highdefdigest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/BTTF2-34-Biometric-Payments.jpg

  30. http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/f/f0/Texaco_2015.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20150113042534

  31. http://36.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7hwccjgud1qz82gvo1_1280.jpg

  32. INFORMATION!

  33. https://vimeo.com/95078536 DISRUPTING DOG WALKING

  34. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI DISRUPTING MOBILITY

  35. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog

  36. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog Digital

  37. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog Digital Smartphones

  38. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog Digital Smartphones

  39. EXPONENTIAL CHANGE!

  40. MOORE’S LAW http://education.mrsec.wisc.edu/SlideShow/images/computer/Moores_Law.png

  41. KRYDER’S LAW BUTTERS’ LAW NIELSEN’S LAW HENDY’S LAW SWANSON’S LAW

  42. CARLSON CURVE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Historic_cost_of_sequencing_a_human_genome.svg

  43. CARLSON CURVE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Historic_cost_of_sequencing_a_human_genome.svg MOORE’S LAW

  44. 1855 1895 1935 1975 2015 DN A Editing A utom

    ated DN A Sequencing Personal G enom ics N uclear Pow er Transistor TC P/IP W ord W ide W eb Integrated C ircuit Laser G UI Dry C ell Battery Radio Diesel Engine Vacuum Tube Television Telephone Light Bulb A ircraft Program m able C om puter Satellites G as Engine A utom obile Steel Dynam ite Sm artphone Personal C om puter Solar C ell Blockchain TOMORROW’S TECHNOLOGIES 3D Printing 3D Integrated C ircuit Spintronics Invisibility C loak Scanning Tunneling M icroscope C arbon N anotube Transistor Drone Digital C am era M obile Phone Deep Learning A utonom ous C ar
  45. None
  46. None
  47. None
  48. None
  49. None
  50. (EXPONENTIAL CHANGE.)

  51. http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136063main_bm4_high.jpg

  52. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Genome_sequence_when_printed_fills_a_huge_book_of_close_print.JPG

  53. http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

  54. https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/8a/07/88/8a078831031979119efeb2159ed4f3d6.jpg

  55. http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

  56. WHAAAT!? http://capsulejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Minion-what-Capsule-mars-2015.jpg

  57. https://ndwdesign.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/minionsfinal.jpg

  58. http://www.mazaaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Mission-Teamwork.jpg

  59. http://marketrealist.com/2015/06/going-may-tough-tech-employment-short-term/

  60. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6260861765/

  61. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6266375337/

  62. http://www.singularity.com/images/charts/ExponentialGrowthofComputing.jpg

  63. http://www.singularity.com/images/charts/ExponentialGrowthofComputing.jpg

  64. http://www.singularity.com/images/charts/ExponentialGrowthofComputing.jpg

  65. http://blogs-images.forbes.com/ryanmac/files/2014/10/marcandreessen-e1413816287173-1940x1090.jpeg SOFTWARE IS EATING THE WORLD.

  66. AND NOW?

  67. DON’T TRUST YOUR INTUITION.

  68. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6261268977/

  69. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6261268977/

  70. http://www.emdanforth.com/images/icebergfull.jpg PRODUCT

  71. http://www.emdanforth.com/images/icebergfull.jpg INFORMATION PRODUCT

  72. www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/5640777961/

  73. www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/5640777961/

  74. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6872482431/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6865783267/

  75. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6872482431/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6865783267/

  76. http://www.mac-history.de/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ARC8Oct68-13.jpg https://i.imgur.com/b9PeRwb.jpg

  77. IT’S STILL DAY ONE.

  78. WOLFGANGWOPPERER.COM @WOWO101 MINDMATTERS.DE HAMBURG.BETAHAUS.DE PRODUCTFIELD.COM CC-BY-SA 4.0