A Tale of Two Futures

Why our present isn’t what it was supposed to be, what our future might look like, and how to deal with exponential change. (Keynote at Day One, November 2015)

Transcript

1. WOLFGANG WOPPERER BEHOLZ CO-FOUNDER MINDMATTERS CO-FOUNDER BETAHAUS HAMBURG CO-CREATOR PRODUCTFIELD ( )
2. A TALE OF TWO FUTURES Day One – 13.11.2015
4. http://i0.wp.com/newsfirst.lk/english/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/back-to-the-future-time-circuit-board.jpg
5. (FUTURE DAY)
6. http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1396036/delorean.jpg
7. THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE FUTURE:
8. http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/1502029/size/tmg-article_main_wide_2x
9. https://rookin.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/hovercar.jpg
10. https://marcusomahony.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/mr_fusion_by_emmokapp.jpg
11. BUT:
12. http://www.innovationfiles.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/futureatlas.com_.jpg
13. 1981 https://startupblog.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/xerox-star.jpg http://i.computer-bild.de/imgs/5/8/2/3/0/0/0/Apple-iMac-1024x576-97ea294353f8a908.jpg 2015
14. http://www.eco-mobil.at/uploads/pics/VW_Golf_Golf_VII_large.jpg 1974 2015
15. 1957 2015 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/All_Nippon_Airways_Boeing_787-8_Dreamliner_JA801A_OKJ.jpg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/Boeing_707-138B_Qantas_Jett_Clipper_Ella_N707JT.jpg
16. 1855 1895 1935 1975 2015 N uclear Pow er Transistor TC P/IP W ord W ide W eb Integrated C ircuit Laser G UI Dry C ell Battery Radio Diesel Engine Vacuum Tube Television Telephone Light Bulb A ircraft Program m able C om puter Satellites G as Engine A utom obile Steel Dynam ite Sm artphone Personal C om puter Solar C ell TODAY’S TECHNOLOGIES Digital C am era M obile Phone
17. WHERE WE SHOULD BE http://kk.org/mt-files/thetechnium-mt/Martino72-43.jpg
18. WHERE WE ARE
20. MISSED DREAMS
21. http://www.technologyreview.com/sites/default/files/legacy/tfp_brookings3.png
22. http://www.technologyreview.com/sites/default/files/legacy/tfp_brookings3.png MISSED WEALTH
23. „THE GREAT STAGNATION“
24. BUT WAIT…
25. http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/51dc2bbcecad04770700001f/the-only-thing-back-to-the-future-missed-with-its-representation-of-video-chat-is-the-annoying-sounds-skype-makes-when-you-start-and-end-a-call.jpg
26. http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/c/c7/Back_to_the_Future_II.png/revision/latest?cb=20131107120316
27. http://geekandsundry.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/back-to-the-future-2-4.jpg
28. http://static.businessinsider.com/image/54a8d7e8ecad04ca4368d5bc/image.jpg
29. http://www.highdefdigest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/BTTF2-34-Biometric-Payments.jpg
30. http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/f/f0/Texaco_2015.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20150113042534
31. http://36.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7hwccjgud1qz82gvo1_1280.jpg
32. INFORMATION!
33. https://vimeo.com/95078536 DISRUPTING DOG WALKING
34. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI DISRUPTING MOBILITY
35. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog
36. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog Digital
37. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog Digital Smartphones
38. DISRUPTING PHOTOGRAPHY http://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/this-is-what-the-history-of-camera-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/ Analog Digital Smartphones
39. EXPONENTIAL CHANGE!
40. MOORE’S LAW http://education.mrsec.wisc.edu/SlideShow/images/computer/Moores_Law.png
41. KRYDER’S LAW BUTTERS’ LAW NIELSEN’S LAW HENDY’S LAW SWANSON’S LAW
42. CARLSON CURVE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Historic_cost_of_sequencing_a_human_genome.svg
43. CARLSON CURVE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Historic_cost_of_sequencing_a_human_genome.svg MOORE’S LAW
44. 1855 1895 1935 1975 2015 DN A Editing A utom ated DN A Sequencing Personal G enom ics N uclear Pow er Transistor TC P/IP W ord W ide W eb Integrated C ircuit Laser G UI Dry C ell Battery Radio Diesel Engine Vacuum Tube Television Telephone Light Bulb A ircraft Program m able C om puter Satellites G as Engine A utom obile Steel Dynam ite Sm artphone Personal C om puter Solar C ell Blockchain TOMORROW’S TECHNOLOGIES 3D Printing 3D Integrated C ircuit Spintronics Invisibility C loak Scanning Tunneling M icroscope C arbon N anotube Transistor Drone Digital C am era M obile Phone Deep Learning A utonom ous C ar
50. (EXPONENTIAL CHANGE.)
51. http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136063main_bm4_high.jpg
52. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Genome_sequence_when_printed_fills_a_huge_book_of_close_print.JPG
53. http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
54. https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/8a/07/88/8a078831031979119efeb2159ed4f3d6.jpg
55. http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
56. WHAAAT!? http://capsulejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Minion-what-Capsule-mars-2015.jpg
57. https://ndwdesign.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/minionsfinal.jpg
58. http://www.mazaaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Mission-Teamwork.jpg
59. http://marketrealist.com/2015/06/going-may-tough-tech-employment-short-term/
60. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6260861765/
61. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6266375337/
62. http://www.singularity.com/images/charts/ExponentialGrowthofComputing.jpg
63. http://www.singularity.com/images/charts/ExponentialGrowthofComputing.jpg
64. http://www.singularity.com/images/charts/ExponentialGrowthofComputing.jpg
65. http://blogs-images.forbes.com/ryanmac/files/2014/10/marcandreessen-e1413816287173-1940x1090.jpeg SOFTWARE IS EATING THE WORLD.
66. AND NOW?
67. DON’T TRUST YOUR INTUITION.
68. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6261268977/
69. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6261268977/
70. http://www.emdanforth.com/images/icebergfull.jpg PRODUCT
71. http://www.emdanforth.com/images/icebergfull.jpg INFORMATION PRODUCT
72. www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/5640777961/
73. www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/5640777961/
74. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6872482431/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6865783267/
75. https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6872482431/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6865783267/
76. http://www.mac-history.de/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ARC8Oct68-13.jpg https://i.imgur.com/b9PeRwb.jpg
77. IT’S STILL DAY ONE.
78. WOLFGANGWOPPERER.COM @WOWO101 MINDMATTERS.DE HAMBURG.BETAHAUS.DE PRODUCTFIELD.COM CC-BY-SA 4.0