Why we're living in an age of fundamental uncertainty, how we should deal with this fact, and what kind of social activism exemplifies that approach. (Talk at Urgentem Encounters, September 2020)
al. (2018): ”Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” Our analysis focuses on the strength of the feedback between now and 2100. However, several of the feedbacks that show negligible or very small magnitude by 2100 could nevertheless be triggered well before then, and they could eventually generate significant feedback strength over longer timeframes—centuries and even millennia—and thus, influence the long-term trajectory of the Earth System. These feedback processes include perma- frost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, in- creased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation (33). Tipping Cascades. Fig. 3 shows a global map of some potential tipping cascades. The tipping elements fall into three clusters based on their estimated threshold temperature (12, 17, 39). Cascades could be formed when a rise in global temperature reaches the level of the lower-temperature cluster, activating tipping elements, such as loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet or Arctic sea ice. These tipping elements, along with some of the non- tipping element feedbacks (e.g., gradual weakening of land and ocean physiological carbon sinks), could push the global average Fig. 3. Global map of potential tipping cascades. The individual tipping elements are color- coded according to estimated thresholds in global average surface temperature (tipping points) (12, 34). Arrows show the potential interactions among the tipping elements based on expert elicitation that could generate cascades. Note that, although the risk for tipping (loss of) the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is proposed at >5 °C, some marine-based sectors in East Antarctica may be vulnerable at lower temperatures (35–38).
al. (2018): ”Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” irre hum the thre cre tha with a p the del par syst Ear side Fee Bio infl can can Fig. 2. Stability landscape showing the pathway of the Earth System out of the Holocene and thus, out of the glacial–interglacial limit cycle to its present position in the hotter Anthropocene. The fork in the road in Fig. 1 is shown here as the two divergent pathways of the Earth System in the future (broken arrows). Currently, the Earth System is on a Hothouse Earth pathway driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases and biosphere degradation toward a planetary threshold at ∼2 °C (horizontal broken line at 2 °C in Fig. 1), beyond which Our analysis focuses on the strength of the feedback between now and 2100. However, several of the feedbacks that show negligible or very small magnitude by 2100 could nevertheless be triggered well before then, and they could eventually generate significant feedback strength over longer timeframes—centuries and even millennia—and thus, influence the long-term trajectory of the Earth System. These feedback processes include perma- frost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, in- creased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation (33). Tipping Cascades. Fig. 3 shows a global map of some potential tipping cascades. The tipping elements fall into three clusters based on their estimated threshold temperature (12, 17, 39). Cascades could be formed when a rise in global temperature reaches the level of the lower-temperature cluster, activating tipping elements, such as loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet or Arctic sea ice. These tipping elements, along with some of the non- tipping element feedbacks (e.g., gradual weakening of land and ocean physiological carbon sinks), could push the global average Fig. 3. Global map of potential tipping cascades. The individual tipping elements are color- coded according to estimated thresholds in global average surface temperature (tipping points) (12, 34). Arrows show the potential interactions among the tipping elements based on expert elicitation that could generate cascades. Note that, although the risk for tipping (loss of) the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is proposed at >5 °C, some marine-based sectors in East Antarctica may be vulnerable at lower temperatures (35–38).
threshold that, if crossed, could cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. 6 Advancing towards the unknown Urgentem Encounters 04/09/2020 Steffen et al. (2018): ”Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene”
shrunk towards zero, whereas the reaction time to achieve net zero emissions is 30 years at best. Hence we might already have lost control. 7 Advancing towards the unknown Urgentem Encounters 04/09/2020 Lenton et al. (2019): ”Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against”
al. (2020): “Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050“ ≈ ≈ Fig. 3. Social tipping elements (STEs) and associated social tipping interventions (STIs) with the potential to drive rapid decarbonization in the World–Earth system. The processes they represent unfold across levels of social structure on widely different timescales, ranging from the fast dynamics of market exchanges and resource allocation on subannual timescales to the slow decadal- to centennial-scale changes on the level of customs, values, and social norms (51).
to stabilize the Earth System. Widespread, rapid, and fundamental transformations will likely be required to reduce the risk of crossing the threshold and locking in the Hothouse Earth pathway. 10 Advancing towards the unknown Urgentem Encounters 04/09/2020 Steffen et al. (2018): ”Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene”
we must stop the mad race of our civilisation within a few months, which would amount to an intentional social and economic collapse. 1 1 Advancing towards the unknown Urgentem Encounters 04/09/2020 https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-08-05/deep-adaptation-opens-up-a-necessary-conversation-about-the-breakdown-of-civilisation/
and forward- looking risk analysis will not suffice to provide all the information required to hedge against “green swan” events. Bolton et al. (2020), The green swan. Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change
management to building the resilience of complex adaptive systems that will be impacted in one way or another by climate change. Bolton et al. (2020), The green swan. Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change
A. Pedagogical example of a 2-gene network (mutual inhibition of genes A and B) and Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Ma 22 Advancing towards the unknown Urgentem Encounters 04/09/2020 Huang et al. (2009): ”Cancer attractors: A systems view of tumors from a gene network dynamics and developmental perspective”
at is, ernal sure ty of ot to ce of y to rop- the ility, ther ivid- onal Gun- rties Figure 4. A stylized representation of the four ecosystem functions (r, K, ⍀, ␣) and the flow of events among them. The arrows show the speed of the flow in the cycle. Short, closely spaced arrows indicate a slowly changing situa- tion; long arrows indicate a rapidly changing situation. The cycle reflects changes in two properties: the y axis (the potential that is inherent in the accumulated re- sources of biomass and nutrients) and the x axis (the Holling (2001), “Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems”
at is, ernal sure ty of ot to ce of y to rop- the ility, ther ivid- onal Gun- rties Figure 4. A stylized representation of the four ecosystem functions (r, K, ⍀, ␣) and the flow of events among them. The arrows show the speed of the flow in the cycle. Short, closely spaced arrows indicate a slowly changing situa- tion; long arrows indicate a rapidly changing situation. The cycle reflects changes in two properties: the y axis (the potential that is inherent in the accumulated re- sources of biomass and nutrients) and the x axis (the and others 2001). The Soviet Union is a societal example of accumulated rigidities that precipitate a sudden collapse. The proximate agents of distur- bance in these cases can be stakeholder revolts, public-interest attacks through the legal system, or more extreme societal revolts. The phase from ⍀ to ␣ is a period of rapid reor- ganization during which novel recombinations can unexpectedly seed experiments that lead to inno- vations in the next cycle. The economist J. A. Schumpeter (1950) appropriately called this phase “creative destruction.” Initially, the “front loop” of the trajectory, from r to K, becomes progressively more predictable as it develops. In contrast, the “back loop” of the adaptive cycle, from ⍀ to ␣, is inherently unpredictable and highly uncertain. At that stage, the previously accumulated mutations, inventions, external invaders, and capital can be- come reassorted into novel combinations, some of which nucleate new opportunity. It is as if two separate objectives are functioning, but in sequence. The first maximizes production Figure 5. Resilience is another dimension of the adaptive cycle. A third dimension, resilience, is added to the two- dimensional box of Figure 4 to show how resilience ex- Understanding Complex Systems 395 Holling (2001), “Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems”
al. (2020): “Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050“ Level of decarbonization Social complexities Stability Social tipping interventions Decarbonized state Business-as-usual state Low High A B g. 2. The concept of decarbonization transformation as social tipping dynamics. As illustrated in A by an abstract stab ocioeconomic system today is trapped in a valley where it still depends heavily on burning fossil fuels, leading to high missions. STIs have the potential to erode the barrier through triggering social tipping dynamics in different sectors (Fig. 3)
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