A Lean foundation for effective estimates

For many of us, conventional software estimation fails to give us confidence in planning. In this short talk, we use Lean principles to begin to understand why, and to discover alternatives for getting the understanding we need.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGuPknd-cnM

Transcript

1. A Lean foundation for effective estimates Yitz Schaffer @YitzOf TheBits
2. Yitz Schaffer @YitzOf TheBits Making Software, Better
3. "We need to get better at estimation"
4. Futile. Useless. Wasteful.
5. Futile. Useless. Wasteful. Muda 僻洏
6. Eliminate activities which do not contribute value
7. "We need to get better at estimation"
8. "We need to get better at estimation more effective techniques for getting the information we seek from estimating"
9. Goal of estimation Inform a decision about Product Backlog Items
10. Goal of estimation Inform a decision about Product Backlog Items • Fixed dates: how much can we deliver
11. Goal of estimation Inform a decision about Product Backlog Items • Fixed dates: how much can we deliver • Priority: what to do next
12. "Scrum is founded on empirical process control theory, or empiricism. Empiricism asserts that knowledge comes from experience and making decisions based on what is known." Scrum Guide
13. Empirical measures • Lead time - from request to delivery of an item • Cycle time - from start of work to delivery of an item • Throughput - how many items per time period
14. Cycle time Number of items
15. Fixed date Use throughput (items delivered per time span) and lead time (request to delivery)
 to determine how much we can deliver
 by the date in question
16. Priority Determine cost of delay for all items, and optimize against cycle time
17. Recap • Lead time - from request to delivery • Cycle time - from start of work to delivery • Throughput - how many items per time period • Cost of delay
18. More information • Why opinion-based estimates might fail: Cynefin framework
 (Chaotic & Complex domains) • #NoEstimates, @WoodyZuill, @neil_killick • Principles of
 Product Development Flow