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Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Repres...
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Carlisle Rainey
August 29, 2014
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Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Representation Decreases Voter Mobilization.
Carlisle Rainey
August 29, 2014
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Transcript
Strategic Mobilization Why Disproportional Districts Encourage Partisan Mobilization Efforts Carlisle
Rainey! Assistant Professor University at Buffalo (SUNY)
[email protected]
@carlislerainey paper, data, and code at crain.co/stratmob
“With proportional representation from the nation as a whole or
from large electoral districts, parties have an incentive to mobilize everywhere. With single member districts some areas may be written off as hopeless.” –Powell (1982, p. 21)
incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation
incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation no any
None
None
None
None
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality Proportional Competitive Plurality !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional Competitive Plurality !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive Plurality !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive Plurality 49% 0% !
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51%
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share if
Mobilize Seat Share if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
mobilization
electoral rules
competitiveness
data
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incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation no any paper, data,
and code at crain.co/stratmob