Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Representation Decreases Voter Mobilization.

Transcript

1. Strategic Mobilization Why Disproportional Districts Encourage Partisan Mobilization Efforts Carlisle

   Rainey! Assistant Professor University at Buffalo (SUNY) carlisle@crain.co @carlislerainey paper, data, and code at crain.co/stratmob

2. “With proportional representation from the nation as a whole or

   from large electoral districts, parties have an incentive to mobilize everywhere. With single member districts some areas may be written off as hopeless.” –Powell (1982, p. 21)

3. incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation

4. incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation no any

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9. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

   Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality Proportional Competitive
 Plurality !

10. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional Competitive
 Plurality !

11. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality !

12. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !

13. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !

14. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !

15. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !

16. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !

17. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !

18. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !

19. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51%

20. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%

21. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes

22. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes

23. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes

24. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%

25. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%

26. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%

27. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%

28. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%

29. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if

    Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%

30. mobilization

31. electoral rules

32. competitiveness

33. data

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41. incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation no any paper, data,

    and code at crain.co/stratmob