Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Representation Decreases Voter Mobilization.

Transcript

1. Strategic Mobilization Why Disproportional Districts Encourage Partisan Mobilization Efforts Carlisle Rainey! Assistant Professor University at Buffalo (SUNY) carlisle@crain.co @carlislerainey paper, data, and code at crain.co/stratmob
2. “With proportional representation from the nation as a whole or from large electoral districts, parties have an incentive to mobilize everywhere. With single member districts some areas may be written off as hopeless.” –Powell (1982, p. 21)
3. incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation
4. incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation no any
9. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality Proportional Competitive
 Plurality !
10. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional Competitive
 Plurality !
11. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality !
12. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !
13. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !
14. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !
15. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !
16. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !
17. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !
18. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% !
19. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51%
20. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
21. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
22. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
23. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% No Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
24. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
25. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
26. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100%
27. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
28. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
29. District Current Vote Share Current Seat Share Vote Share
 if Mobilize Seat Share
 if Mobilize Gain Non-Competitive Plurality 20% 0% 22% 0% 0% Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2% Competitive
 Plurality 49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
30. mobilization
31. electoral rules
32. competitiveness
33. data
41. incentive to mobilize everywhere proportional representation no any paper, data, and code at crain.co/stratmob