Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Representation Decreases Voter Mobilization.

Transcript

1. Strategic Mobilization
   Why Disproportional Districts Encourage Partisan
   Mobilization Efforts
   Carlisle Rainey!
   Assistant Professor
   University at Buffalo (SUNY)
   carlisle@crain.co
   @carlislerainey
   paper, data, and code at
   crain.co/stratmob
   

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2. “With proportional representation from the nation
   as a whole or from large electoral districts, parties
   have an incentive to mobilize everywhere. With
   single member districts some areas may be
   written off as hopeless.”
   –Powell (1982, p. 21)
   

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3. incentive to mobilize everywhere
   proportional representation
   

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4. incentive to mobilize everywhere
   proportional representation
   no
   any
   

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5. View Slide

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9. District
   Current
   Vote Share
   Current
   Seat Share
   Vote Share

   if Mobilize
   Seat Share

   if Mobilize
   Gain
   Non-Competitive
   Plurality
   Proportional
   Competitive

   Plurality
   !
   

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10. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0%
    Proportional
    Competitive

    Plurality
    !
    

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11. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    !
    

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12. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0%
    !
    

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13. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22%
    Proportional 20% 20%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0%
    !
    

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14. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0%
    !
    

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15. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0%
    !
    

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16. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0%
    !
    

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17. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0%
    !
    

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18. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0%
    !
    

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19. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51%
    

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20. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100%
    

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21. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
    

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22. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
    

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23. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% No
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% Yes
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100% Yes
    

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24. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100%
    

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25. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100%
    

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26. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100%
    

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27. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
    

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28. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
    

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29. District
    Current
    Vote Share
    Current
    Seat Share
    Vote Share

    if Mobilize
    Seat Share

    if Mobilize
    Gain
    Non-Competitive
    Plurality
    20% 0% 22% 0% 0%
    Proportional 20% 20% 22% 22% 2%
    Competitive

    Plurality
    49% 0% 51% 100% 100%
    

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30. mobilization
    

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31. electoral rules
    

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32. competitiveness
    

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33. data
    

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41. incentive to mobilize everywhere
    proportional representation
    no
    any
    paper, data, and code at
    crain.co/stratmob
    

    View Slide