Linking Habitat Heterogeneity to Salmon Diversity Across Alaska

Presentation for the American Fisheries Society, Western Division. Anchorage AK 2018

Transcript

1. JasonSChing.com: JasonSChing.com Authors: J. Cornejo-Donoso, L. Jones, M. Jovanovich, M. Sloat, D. Rinella, P. Westley cornejo@nceas.ucsb.edu Linking Habitat Heterogeneity to Salmon Diversity Across Alaska
2. HABITAT DIVERSITY LIFE-HISTORY DIVERSITY GENETIC DIVERSITY SPECIES PERSISTENCE
3. Outline •Habitat heterogeneity and •Species diversity •Sockeye Age diversity •Sockeye availability •Conclusions - Consequences
4. Species Diversity
5. Escapement estimations from ADF&G • 1,973,030,571 estimated pacific Salmon Chinook: 16,755,726 Chum: 213,915,860 Coho: 23,246,037 Pink: 197,753,233 Sockeye: 1,521,359,715 • From 1930 to 2017 • 7 Regions used • 200 sampling locations Clark, J., Brenner, R., & S. Freund 2018. Compiled annual statewide Alaskan salmon escapement counts, 1921-2017. Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity. urn:uuid:2ff55e53-3e54-4749-b4f9-24fe21f3ebd0
6. Escapement estimations from ADF&G • 1,973,030,571 estimated pacific Salmon Chinook: 16,755,726 Chum: 213,915,860 Coho: 23,246,037 Pink: 197,753,233 Sockeye: 1,521,359,715 • From 1930 to 2017 • 7 Regions used • 200 sampling locations Clark, J., Brenner, R., & S. Freund 2018. Compiled annual statewide Alaskan salmon escapement counts, 1921-2017. Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity. urn:uuid:2ff55e53-3e54-4749-b4f9-24fe21f3ebd0
7. Simpson Diversity Index ! = 1 − ∑ & ' ( n = total estimation for a species in a region and year N = total estimation for all species in a region and year Describes the probability that two organisms randomly selected from a sample will belong to the same species
8. Species Diversity = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Species Diversity R2: 0.70
9. Species Diversity = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Species Diversity R2: 0.70
10. Species Diversity = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Species Diversity R2: 0.70
11. Species Diversity = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Species Diversity R2: 0.70
12. Regional diversity over time
13. Sockeye: Age Diversity and Availability http://salmon-net.org. Jonny Armstrong
14. Sockeye ASL data from ADF&G • >8,000,000 sampled • From 1958 to 2016 • 7 regions • 560 sampling locations • 19 different age classes Clark, J., Brenner, R., & B. Lewis 2018. Compiled age, sex, and length data for Alaskan salmon, 1922-2017. Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity. urn:uuid:f1b0cc71-d879- 4b55-ae0f-30f57c1b8980.
15. Sockeye Age Diversity Age Class
16. Simpson Age Diversity ! = 1 − ∑ & ' ( n = number of organism in a particular age class in a region and year. N = total number of organisms for all age classes in region and year Describe the probability that two organisms randomly selected from a sample will belong to the age class
17. Sockeye Age Diversity R2: 0.50 Age Diversity = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV
18. Sockeye Age Diversity R2: 0.50 Age Diversity = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV
19. Sockeye Age Diversity R2: 0.50 Age Diversity = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV
20. Sockeye: Availability http://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/cornejo-shiny/escapement_explorer/ http://salmon-net.org. Jonny Armstrong
21. Sockeye escapement estimations • 1.5 Billion Sockeye estimated • From 1930 to 2017 • Used daily escape estimation to: • Yearly total regional run • Daily run percentile • Count number of days between 5 to 95% of the run
22. Availability = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Sockeye Availability R2: 0.75
23. Availability = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Sockeye Availability R2: 0.75
24. Availability = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Sockeye Availability R2: 0.75
25. Availability = Region + Year + Temperature CV + Year * Temperature CV Sockeye Availability R2: 0.75
26. Temperature CV = Year+ Region Temperature CV R2: 0.91
27. Linking Habitat to Diversity • Species Diversity: • We don’t have the spatial/temporal data coverage to compare between regions • Maybe there it will be possible in the future • Is diversity increasing over time ? We need more data on all the spp. • Sockeye Age Diversity: • Age diversity is increasing with temperature CV and over time • Based on age diversity it is possible to identify 2 groups of regions • Availability: • 3 groups of regions • Availability increase with the temperature CV and over time
28. HABITAT DIVERSITY LIFE-HISTORY DIVERSITY GENETIC DIVERSITY SPECIES PERSISTENCE
29. Consequences • Maintaining a diversity of habitats is key as they have a significant effect on diversity and availability • Increasing availability does not necessarily means predictability • It could be the opposite from the perspective of harvesters • Longer regional availability can be composed of shorter runs at different times • It is important to understand the tradeoffs between habitat loss and diversity loss. • How much diversity is enough diversity ?
30. Jorge Cornejo cornejo@nceas.ucsb.edu Acknowledgments